2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

cyfan92

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How do you know this?
Every basketball player who has ever practiced in the history of ever throws up half court shots at center court following workouts. I guarantee if there was a live feed at SUKUP in Ames, you'd see it daily

If you are going to let someone shot a last second three, don't let them get to half court with their shoulders and hips aligned to the basket
 

madguy30

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Every basketball player who has ever practiced in the history of ever throws up half court shots at center court following workouts. I guarantee if there was a live feed at SUKUP in Ames, you'd see it daily

If you are going to let someone shot a last second three, don't let them get to half court with their shoulders and hips aligned to the basket

Well this is information I wasn't aware of. Every player? Ever?

A shot with a 5% chance of going in is still a 5% shot. I can basically guarantee he doesn't make it last night if he shoots the same shot as he did vs. ISU.
 

VeloClone

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That loss was a Q3 loss at the time and is now a Q2 which is less damaging at least. I'm not sure if they can move up to Q1 since they spent the first two months of the season being pretty terrible.
It might be a challenge to get that loss up to a Q1, especially if ISU wins on their floor. However it is certainly doable to get it up from Q2b territory to Q2a. The committee does look at that level of granularity.

I am just as concerned about Colorado since we play them (at least) three times. They are currently at NET 107. If they can win a game or two and get to NET 100 or better the Q3 Neutral game goes from a Q3 to Q2b AND the Q2b Road game goes from a Q2b to Q2a. I'm afraid there is no hope for the upcoming Q3 home game. In addition getting that Neutral game up helps our Non-con SOS which has taken a big hit the last month. Colorado still has home games against UCF Saturday and TCU to end the season.
 

cyfan92

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Well this is information I wasn't aware of. Every player? Ever?

A shot with a 5% chance of going in is still a 5% shot. I can basically guarantee he doesn't make it last night if he shoots the same shot as he did vs. ISU.

I'm not trying to say it's guaranteed to go in, but high level college basketball players can make that shot with decent regularity.

On Gameday, Jay Williams made it in Hilton on Saturday, while wearing a suit. He actually makes it more often than you'd think.

You are right it was lucky, I'm just saying there are better ways to defend that in the future, like how K-State forced him to the sideline, not at center court.

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VeloClone

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Every basketball player who has ever practiced in the history of ever throws up half court shots at center court following workouts. I guarantee if there was a live feed at SUKUP in Ames, you'd see it daily

If you are going to let someone shot a last second three, don't let them get to half court with their shoulders and hips aligned to the basket
Well good thing ISU didn't let him get to half court and also didn't foul him in the act of shooting.
 
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Letterkenny

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Way better defended than against us... He was forced to the baseline rather than allowed to get to center court where they practice daily after workouts
It was also after a missed free throw so Arizona couldn't set up any type of play (unintentionally missed). I'd still say the look he got against Arizona was very similar to the one he made against us. Either way, it's less than a 1% make probability. The way we defended it was fine. The first priority was not letting them throw the pass down court. We did that. The second priority was not letting them catch a pass with a full head of steam running forward. We did that. 3rd priority was not fouling while they shot. We did that too. I don't know what else fans want. Yeah, you can try to force him to the sideline, but then you're risking a collision and a foul.
 

Letterkenny

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Every basketball player who has ever practiced in the history of ever throws up half court shots at center court following workouts. I guarantee if there was a live feed at SUKUP in Ames, you'd see it daily

If you are going to let someone shot a last second three, don't let them get to half court with their shoulders and hips aligned to the basket
Well, he wasn't at half court, he was about 15 feet behind it. NBA make % from half court or beyond is 1%. The shot Love made against us was likely a <1% make probability. **** happens.
 

Letterkenny

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I'm not trying to say it's guaranteed to go in, but high level college basketball players can make that shot with decent regularity.

On Gameday, Jay Williams made it in Hilton on Saturday, while wearing a suit. He actually makes it more often than you'd think.

You are right it was lucky, I'm just saying there are better ways to defend that in the future, like how K-State forced him to the sideline, not at center court.
No they don't. Not in a live game. Not even close.
 

NATEizKING

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How does that work when every win they get gives a loss to another opponent, moving their ranking down? I suppose it helps a little more since we play them twice.
Bad losses only help your football ranking. In basketball, you want all the teams you lose to, to win as much as possible. Been cheering for Auburn since we lost @WVU and @AZ. Once we were 2 losses behind, we weren't going to get to #1.
 

Cloned4Life

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No they don't. Not in a live game. Not even close.
Across CBB there have been ~5 half court+ makes in just the last couple weeks alone. Certainly not a hyper percentage shot, but much higher percentage shot in the center unguarded. I bet Love makes our same shot 1/10 times, and the specific shot he had against K-State maybe 1/50.

And year, it was still lucky AF.
 

Letterkenny

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Across CBB there have been ~5 half court+ makes in just the last couple weeks alone. Certainly not a hyper percentage shot, but much higher percentage shot in the center unguarded. I bet Love makes our same shot 1/10 times, and the specific shot he had against K-State maybe 1/50.

And year, it was still lucky AF.
1. You'll have to show me exactly where all those were made from.
2. Love wasn't unguarded.
3. You're an entire order of magnitude off with the 1/10. It's more like 1/100, or less. NBA stats back that up.
 
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Die4Cy

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It got me thinking how we always seem to end up down in manhattan late in the season so I decided to go back and look at the schedules:

Here's our last 20.

2025: final game of our regular season, senior night in manhattan
2024: final game of our regular season, senior night in manhattan
2023: @KSU on feb 18, home game Jan 24
2022: @KSU on february 26, home game feb 12
2021: final game of our regular season, senior night in manhattan
2020: final game of our regular season, senior night in manhattan
2019: @KSU on feb 16, home game jan 12
2018: @KSU feb 17, home game dec 29
2017: @KSU feb 15, home game jan 24
2016: home game feb 27, away jan 16
2015: @KSU feb 28, home jan 20
2014: @KSU mar 1, home jan 25
2013: @KSU feb 9, home game jan 26
2012: @KSU Feb 25, home jan 31
2011: final game of our regular season, senior night in manhattan
2010: final game of our regular season, senior night in manhattan
2009: home game feb 21, @KSU feb 3
2008: home in Ames on senior night, @KSU jan 26
2007: @KSU Feb 17, home jan 20
2006 @KSU feb 8, home jan 7

Only 3 games in 20 did we have our home game for the second game, and only once on senior night, vs KSU having us in Manhattan for senior night 6 separate times.

On a similar note, we've only finished our regular season at home 6 times in the last 20 years, and only once in the last decade (2019)
That doesn't seem very random.
 

Statefan10

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Way better defended than against us... He was forced to the baseline rather than allowed to get to center court where they practice daily after workouts
Man what have I been watching then, because since our game and that lucky shot went in I've watched roughly 10+ games across NBA and CBB where a player shot a 3/4 to 1/2 court shot and missed. Surely I'd have seen another one if you're claiming it to be that common.

It's because it isn't common. It's around a 5% chance of it going in. Hell, Braden Smith for Purdue last night had a shot where he got it passed half court and was forced to the sideline and wasn't even close. A far higher percentage shot but no one will talk about it because he missed it.

Yes, guys practice these shots but the rate of success is still incredibly low.