2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[MJ271]

For those of us who don't want to get X, what are his arguments?

The most notable points that I hadn't seen yet are looking at margin of victory. As he noted (red is my comments on it):

• For the 7 Big 12 teams with non-conference schedules ranked worse than 300, there were 32 Q4 games
• The expected margin of victory in those games was 28.8 (not sure if he's using BPI or Kenpom or what)
• The actual margin of victory in those games wasn't crazy far off, at 32.6
• 3 ISU games and 2 BYU games had a 50+ point margin; removing those 5 games drops the actual margin of victory average to 28.4
• NET doesn't include the extreme blowouts (this is news to me)
• "Bottom line: Is it reasonable to conclude that five games--out of almost 400 played by Big 12 teams this season--are enough to skew the whole system?"

 

[IlliniCy]

Must get 2 or 3 seed in Big XII Tourney. ISU/Houston Episode 3 on a neutral court would be epic.

Let's save that for the Final 4.

 

[Malty Flannel]

According to haslemetrics:

the last two games were our worst offensive games outside of Orlando.

And last night was our best defensive performance since Grambling (second best of the year)

I have no doubt that we'll beat UCF, but there's a legitimate concern the final score might be 49 to 39 lol

 

[LLCoolCY]

If I had to design a team to attack this Iowa State team, it would be a roster full of shooters who move the ball. Overtax the Cyclone defensive rotations and shoot the lights out to rack up points.

...which is pretty much BYU.

:/

True. a team full of 3 pt shooters ,like BYU, is a bad matchup for all teams in a single game not ISU. It is hard to count on elite 3pt performances every game.

I'll trust TJ to have the guys locked in with a chance to go undefeated and revenge for the 1st matchup. It will be a good test to see if they learned from the 1st game and able to contest better going to the tourney.

If BYU hits 10+ 3's next Wednesday I don't like ISU chances to defend Hilton. I'll tip my hat to them and not overreact to the result. Those type of shooing nights will be rare to occur especially in the NCAA tourney with the unfamiliar gyms tend to impact shooting.

 

[Cyclonepride]

True. a team full of 3 pt shooters ,like BYU, is a bad matchup for all teams in a single game not ISU. It is hard to count on elite 3pt performances every game.

I'll trust TJ to have the guys locked in with a chance to go undefeated and revenge for the 1st matchup. It will be a good test to see if they learned from the 1st game and able to contest better going to the tourney.

If BYU hits 10+ 3's next Wednesday I don't like ISU chances to defend Hilton. I'll tip my hat to them and not overreact to the result. Those type of shooing nights will be rare to occur especially in the NCAA tourney with the unfamiliar gyms tend to impact shooting.

Our defense against OU was encouraging (and good preparation), as for a long time, we weren't even allowing them to get those off.

 

[enisthemenace]

BYU is the game I’ve when worried about for a while. It’s not just the 3 point shooting, but that is a part of it. They killed us on back door cuts too. We were all kinds of discombobulated against them at their place.

 

[LivntheCyLife]

Imagine how we'd feel before this year if we were told we would...

Finish undefeated in Hilton
#2 seed in the Big 12 tournament
Played in the final (not defined if we won or lost that game) against Houston
#2 seed in the NCAA tournament
Two games in Omaha
Good of chance as anybody for the second and third weekend per the computers

This outcome would have been... what? Maybe in the 99th percentile of our expectations?

Nah, I predicted it. We all knew TJ would be competing for Big 12 titles once he got a 5-star, McDonald's AA on the team, right!?

 

[Kettes]

BYU is the game I’ve when worried about for a while. It’s not just the 3 point shooting, but that is a part of it. They killed us on back door cuts too. We were all kinds of discombobulated against them at their place.

Defending the 3pt shot too tight has a way of getting spanked by the back door cut.

 

[cycloneworld]

Nah, I predicted it. We all knew TJ would be competing for Big 12 titles once he got a 5-star, McDonald's AA on the team, right!?

Someone bumping the TJ hiring thread from a few years ago is inevitable and will be a nice read (crow-eating for me).

 

[Cyclonepride]

BYU is the game I’ve when worried about for a while. It’s not just the 3 point shooting, but that is a part of it. They killed us on back door cuts too. We were all kinds of discombobulated against them at their place.

They really got rolling at home, and once they had us guessing on perimeter shots, they'd go backdoor and vice versa. It's a lot harder to get into that kind of flow on the road, and easier to recover from that too. Don't get me wrong, I do think that they are a bad matchup for us, but I also think we're way better than we played that night.

 

[CascadeClone]

Imagine how we'd feel before this year if we were told we would...

Finish undefeated in Hilton
#2 seed in the Big 12 tournament
Played in the final (not defined if we won or lost that game) against Houston
#2 seed in the NCAA tournament
Two games in Omaha
Good of chance as anybody for the second and third weekend per the computers

This outcome would have been... what? Maybe in the 99th percentile of our expectations?

I thought I was optimistic at 11-7 in conference and maybe a 5 seed...

 

[CascadeClone]

View attachment 124747

View attachment 124748

So with those %s, the odds of:

• winning out = 30%
• win 2 of 3 = 45%
• win only 1 = 22%
• lose all 3 = 3%

 

[inCyteful]

Someone bumping the TJ hiring thread from a few years ago is inevitable and will be a nice read (crow-eating for me).

TBH, I was a fan of the TJ hire but I didn't think he would have this level of success this quickly. I kinda figured it would be Fred/Johnny'esque. Entertaining, compete once in awhile, upset some folks, bring back Hilton Magic.

I have moved to completely irrational expectations now as in being in the Big XII title conversation at the end of every February.

 

[twincyties]

All 3 games remaining could very well be losses if we play like we did against OU and WVU.

 

[Bader]

BYU is the game I’ve when worried about for a while. It’s not just the 3 point shooting, but that is a part of it. They killed us on back door cuts too. We were all kinds of discombobulated against them at their place.

That game was like being on the other end of peak Hoiball, all the way down to a dumpy looking center (Khalifa) just absolutely shredding the defense. I did not care for it, not one bit.

 

[enisthemenace]

That game was like being on the other end of peak Hoiball, all the way down to a dumpy looking center (Khalifa) just absolutely shredding the defense. I did not care for it, not one bit.

Yeah. It sucked. They were 37% from 3 and almost 50% from the field. 83% from the FT line, they outrebounded us and also didn’t turn it over (much). A thorough ass beating.

 

[VeloClone]

Yeah. It sucked. They were 37% from 3 and almost 50% from the field. 83% from the FT line, they outrebounded us and also didn’t turn it over (much). A thorough ass beating.

Yeah, ISU couldn't play much worse than that. The question is can they learn from their mistakes and change that result on its head in Hilton.

 

[inCyteful]

All 3 games remaining could very well be losses if we play like we did against OU and WVU.

I agree but at the same time, previous ISU teams would have lost these last two - including last year and year before. This team has something we haven't seen since Fizer/Tinsley and I am not sure this team doesn't have even more of it - "I am just going to shove this game down your throat".

With that said, I am all in favor of returning to being up by 20 in the first half and then hanging on. At least I only have a few minutes of pucker factor to deal with, not 40.

Related, I am calling BRE for career game on Saturday. I do not think he is going to be a very pleasant fellow until he exercises demons from this game.

 

[Letterkenny]

True. a team full of 3 pt shooters ,like BYU, is a bad matchup for all teams in a single game not ISU. It is hard to count on elite 3pt performances every game.

I'll trust TJ to have the guys locked in with a chance to go undefeated and revenge for the 1st matchup. It will be a good test to see if they learned from the 1st game and able to contest better going to the tourney.

If BYU hits 10+ 3's next Wednesday I don't like ISU chances to defend Hilton. I'll tip my hat to them and not overreact to the result. Those type of shooing nights will be rare to occur especially in the NCAA tourney with the unfamiliar gyms tend to impact shooting.

Agree. I'd guess any great defensive teams' achilles heal is the 3pt shot. Great defensive teams generally cause turnovers, limit points in the paint, and rebound. The 3pt shot is a wild card. You can't really block them without risking fouling, and if you sell out too much to stop the 3, you end up giving up penetration.

Ideally you're not giving up many uncontested threes where the guy is right on the 3pt line. But if teams are making deep threes, or contested shots, you kind of have to accept it.

 

[Cydkar]

That UCF game scares me the most. They just won on the road

All 3 scare me. Our offense is in the mud lately.