Right. Some look at odds on our schedule and think we are favored in every game so winning every game should be the most likely outcome but it's going to be much more difficult than that.
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Again I’m not a stats nerd (I like stats but only took a couple stat classes in college
) but is it really just as simple as multiplying out the odds like that flipping a coin like that? If you told me Kansas has 60-70% odds like that for their last four games every season for the last 20 years, how many of those seasons did they win out vs not? I’d bet it’s more than 23% don’t you think?
That's more a question of how accurately whatever model you are using predicted the odds of outcomes. It's never going to be easy to determine if a team simply outperformed their normal ability over a stretch of games or if the model is not accurately predicting outcomes. It's why folks like kenpom are constantly tweaking their models.Again I’m not a stats nerd (I like stats but only took a couple stat classes in college
Basically you are asking (for example), do we really have a 66.3% change of winning @ KSU? No one can answer that. If we accept those percentages as correct, then it is correct that mathematically our odds of winning all four games are 23%, by the statistical definition of the term "odds".Again I’m not a stats nerd (I like stats but only took a couple stat classes in college
That’s why it feels to me (again just a feel) that just multiplying each games’ predicted outcomes isn’t that accurate and that I would think it’d be more likely that (than the percentage when multiplying them out-what was it like 23%?) that ISU wins out.
Just look at the last 3 games. Basically a 1/3 chance to lose each one. So multiplying it out - even though we're favored in each game - there is a 100% STATISTICAL likelihood we lose one of the three. That's at this point in time.Again I’m not a stats nerd (I like stats but only took a couple stat classes in college
If we win the first one then it's only a 2/3 chance of losing one of the last 2.
Then if we win the next, then there's only a 1/3 chance of losing another game.
As the results actually occur, it resets the totals/percentages.
KP and Torvik are based on Bayesian probability. Basically it has an idea of how good or bad it thinks you are and when you out perform or under perform it adjusts what it thinks of you.
The system that has us as the #8 team is purely analytics based on our efficiency. The other one takes into account our actual resume and who we have beaten
Need?
I'm pretty confident they can, but losing any of the remaining 4 wouldn't shock me. The road games in particular will be tough.
NET has KU with a record of 20-7. Kenpom (and all other places I can find listing records) have them at 21-7. Both are up-to-date including yesterday's (Februar 27) game.
Who is correct and why would NET be missing a win?
Who is correct and why would NET be missing a win?
Chaminade in the Hawaii tourney
F'ing BigXII gaming the NET again. Sheesh!
You can feel it all you want, and you may be right. But that IS how statistics work.
Think of it like rolling a die. Your chance of rolling a 1-4 is 66%. But the chance of rolling a 1-4, on 4 consecutive rolls, is only 20%.
We've been the #2 defense on torvik for a little bit, but Tennessee and Rutgers have been trading spots ahead of us in KP. We are firmly #2 there after tonight.
Rutgers has a nice defense, but they don’t come close to passing the eye test in comparison
Kenpom adjusted offense took a hit with our 58-point performance last night, fell from #40 to #52 lol.
I'm always surprised how much one game affects these things this late in the year. I guess it just means there's a whole bunch of teams clustered together with essentially the same score.
I'm always surprised how much one game affects these things this late in the year. I guess it just means there's a whole bunch of teams clustered together with essentially the same score.
I could be the #2 defense in the country if I were in the B1G
Yes. That's like statistics 101.Again I’m not a stats nerd (I like stats but only took a couple stat classes in college
Are starting to see a few brackets flip ISU and KU on the 2/3 line. Will be interesting depending on if we can win out and KU drops another at Houston or Baylor.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Also, this does top 4 projections for conference race. Not quite a lock, but need one more win. I think most knew that already on here though.
