Pretty confident that KU is going to drop one at Houston, so I'm definitely spending more time worrying and rooting against Baylor. Either way, win at least 2 more and 2nd is locked up.
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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- bracketology cyclones net quad rankings
Iowa's chances to make NCAA, about 30% but they really need to get to 20 wins to have a realistic chance.
That UCF game scares me the most. They just won on the road
According to haslemetrics:
the last two games were our worst offensive games outside of Orlando.
And last night was our best defensive performance since Grambling (second best of the year)
the last two games were our worst offensive games outside of Orlando.
And last night was our best defensive performance since Grambling (second best of the year)
Against the worst team in the conference.
UCF has one good win on the season, which happens to be a home game vs Kansas. Nothing else stands out at all.
I'm more worried about BYU at home. They have five guys who can hit 3s, if even two are firing well, it will be close
If I had to design a team to attack this Iowa State team, it would be a roster full of shooters who move the ball. Overtax the Cyclone defensive rotations and shoot the lights out to rack up points.
...which is pretty much BYU.
:/
I don't think the road games matter much at all - they shouldn't affect our seeding at either the conf tourney (I want a 2 or 3) or the NCAA tourney. The only impact would be winning the conf - assuming Houston drops one.
My goals at this point:
Perfect season in Hilton (payback on BYU)
2 or 3 seed in conf tourney (no Houston until the final)
2 or 3 seed in NCAA in Omaha (and Sweet 16 bid)
Imagine how we'd feel before this year if we were told we would...
Finish undefeated in Hilton
#2 seed in the Big 12 tournament
Played in the final (not defined if we won or lost that game) against Houston
#2 seed in the NCAA tournament
Two games in Omaha
Good of chance as anybody for the second and third weekend per the computers
This outcome would have been... what? Maybe in the 99th percentile of our expectations?
I think Oklahoma showed a bit early in the game as well where they spaced the floor really well and pulled BRE/Ward away from the paint and then attacked the rim. It was one of the very few times that TJ "went small" with Tre at the 5. They just couldn't hit a 3 out of it and then lost that spacing as the game went on (or we adjusted defensively, I couldn't tell)
Hopefully we are just getting the bad offense out of our system before the big dance
I wouldn't be shocked if we went 1-2 or 3-0 lol
Must get 2 or 3 seed in Big XII Tourney. ISU/Houston Episode 3 on a neutral court would be epic.
Agree but, that said, our perimeter defense has substantially improved. We aren't overtrapping and leaving shooters wide open very often. BYU will get looks but I bet they won't be the same quality they got in Provo.
Gotta be Top 3 (Top 1?) best regular seasons of all-time, right?
I hope it’s not a trend that lasts long but I am glad our “lull” is happening now in the “weaker” part of the schedule and especially before the tournaments starts.
Every team has them just got to get ours out of the way and hope it’s short term.
Watson emerging (and yes he only had one good game where he scored mostly on backdoor cuts and one good open three, but I'd argue he was even more impactful on defense and on the boards) is nice if he really is ready to play 20+ minutes in Big 12 games now. He's exactly the sort of defender you want out there... quick first step, good anticipation, and Stretch Armstrong-long arms... to neutralize that attack.
Watson has been a favorite of mine all season. It was absolutely a blast to see him have the game he had last night.
The single biggest thing that jumped out to me was his rebounding. To get 9 as quickly as he did was very impressive. He was seemingly always in the right spot at the right time.
He also is a defensive Swiss army knife and on offense he's a match up problem when switched on by guards. His length is special on defense. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get more minutes the next 2 games with UCFs length and needing him on parameter defense against BYUs shooters.
