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I asked Chat GPT what a Big 12 media rights deal would be valued at today if all the OG members were still part of the conference.

loyalsons4evertrue

loyalsons4evertrue

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Here's what Chat GPT said:

What would a media rights deal be valued at for the original Big 12 members if they were all in the conference today?

ChatGPT said:​

To estimate the value of a media rights deal for the original Big 12 members (i.e., the 12 schools that made up the conference at its founding in 1996), we need to consider current market dynamics, value drivers (like TV viewership and brand strength), and recent media rights trends in college sports.

Original Big 12 Members (1996):​

  • Texas
  • Texas A&M
  • Oklahoma
  • Nebraska
  • Colorado
  • Missouri
  • Kansas
  • Kansas State
  • Iowa State
  • Baylor
  • Texas Tech
  • Oklahoma State
Assumption: All 12 are still in the same conference today.

Key Variables in Valuation​

1. Comparable Conference Deals (as of 2024–2025):​

  • Big Ten (2023–2030): ~$1.1B/year (Fox, CBS, NBC) → 16 teams → ~$70M+ per school
  • SEC (starting 2024): ~$710M/year (ESPN/ABC only) → 16 teams → ~$60–65M per school
  • Big 12 (new version) (2025–2031): ~$380M/year → 16 teams → ~$31.7M per school

2. Original Big 12’s Market Power (Hypothetical Today):​

If the original Big 12 still existed today, it would include blue bloods like:
  • Texas and Oklahoma (huge ratings drivers)
  • Nebraska (strong history, though less relevant now)
  • Texas A&M, Colorado, and Missouri (top 25 potential)
  • Strong rivalries and footprint across TX, OK, MO, CO, KS, NE, and IA
This lineup would arguably be the third-most valuable conference behind the Big Ten and SEC, possibly even competing for second if it retained Texas and Oklahoma.

Estimated Media Rights Valuation (2025 Market)​

MetricEstimate
Estimated total value~$700M–$850M/year
Number of teams12
Estimated per-school payout~$58M–$71M/year

Assumptions Behind Estimate:​

  • Valuation assumes Tier 1 & Tier 2 rights only (TV + digital)
  • Does not include conference-owned networks or third-tier rights (like Longhorn Network)
  • Assumes current 2025–2030 media rights landscape, not a future-shifted scenario
  • Uses recent valuations of comparable college football brands and viewership

Conclusion:​

If all original Big 12 schools were still in the conference today and negotiating a new deal for 2025+, the media rights deal would likely be valued between $700M and $850M per year, with per-school payouts approaching $60–70 million annually, rivaling or surpassing the SEC.
 
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loyalsons4evertrue

loyalsons4evertrue

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Hard to know exactly how accurate it is but you gotta think still have Texas and OU (the biggest brands in the conference), Nebraska and A&M which are the 2nd tier in terms of brand power, and some good markets with KC, Denver, and even though its smaller, DSM to an extent.
 
Cyclonsin

Cyclonsin

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Keep in mind Chat GPT's knowledge cutoff is about 18 months in the past, currently, so it has no idea what's happened in the world in that timeframe.
 
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MountainManHawk

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It’s obviously unknowable but that estimate doesn’t seem unreasonable. If those schools had all stayed and tried to build the Big12, it’s interesting to think of which schools they could have potentially poached because obviously a lot of the growth in the BigTen and SEC contracts came from poaching the valuable schools in other conferences. Maybe the Big12 could have poached Arkansas or Florida State or schools like that.
 
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Sigmapolis

Sigmapolis

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MountainManHawk said:
It’s obviously unknowable but that estimate doesn’t seem unreasonable. If those schools had all stayed and tried to build the Big12, it’s interesting to think of which schools they could have potentially poached because obviously a lot of the growth in the BigTen and SEC contracts came from poaching the valuable schools in other conferences. Maybe the Big12 could have poached Arkansas or Florida State or schools like that.
Click to expand...

I always found it funny how the Big Ten and SEC fans would constantly tell us just how much the Big 12 sucks compared to "big boy college sports" yet they saw it fit to poach most our teams.
 
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HFCS

HFCS

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loyalsons4evertrue said:
Here's what Chat GPT said:

What would a media rights deal be valued at for the original Big 12 members if they were all in the conference today?

ChatGPT said:​

To estimate the value of a media rights deal for the original Big 12 members (i.e., the 12 schools that made up the conference at its founding in 1996), we need to consider current market dynamics, value drivers (like TV viewership and brand strength), and recent media rights trends in college sports.

Original Big 12 Members (1996):​

  • Texas
  • Texas A&M
  • Oklahoma
  • Nebraska
  • Colorado
  • Missouri
  • Kansas
  • Kansas State
  • Iowa State
  • Baylor
  • Texas Tech
  • Oklahoma State
Assumption: All 12 are still in the same conference today.

Key Variables in Valuation​

1. Comparable Conference Deals (as of 2024–2025):​

  • Big Ten (2023–2030): ~$1.1B/year (Fox, CBS, NBC) → 16 teams → ~$70M+ per school
  • SEC (starting 2024): ~$710M/year (ESPN/ABC only) → 16 teams → ~$60–65M per school
  • Big 12 (new version) (2025–2031): ~$380M/year → 16 teams → ~$31.7M per school

2. Original Big 12’s Market Power (Hypothetical Today):​

If the original Big 12 still existed today, it would include blue bloods like:
  • Texas and Oklahoma (huge ratings drivers)
  • Nebraska (strong history, though less relevant now)
  • Texas A&M, Colorado, and Missouri (top 25 potential)
  • Strong rivalries and footprint across TX, OK, MO, CO, KS, NE, and IA
This lineup would arguably be the third-most valuable conference behind the Big Ten and SEC, possibly even competing for second if it retained Texas and Oklahoma.

Estimated Media Rights Valuation (2025 Market)​

MetricEstimate
Estimated total value~$700M–$850M/year
Number of teams12
Estimated per-school payout~$58M–$71M/year

Assumptions Behind Estimate:​

  • Valuation assumes Tier 1 & Tier 2 rights only (TV + digital)
  • Does not include conference-owned networks or third-tier rights (like Longhorn Network)
  • Assumes current 2025–2030 media rights landscape, not a future-shifted scenario
  • Uses recent valuations of comparable college football brands and viewership

Conclusion:​

If all original Big 12 schools were still in the conference today and negotiating a new deal for 2025+, the media rights deal would likely be valued between $700M and $850M per year, with per-school payouts approaching $60–70 million annually, rivaling or surpassing the SEC.
Click to expand...

I’ve always thought this too, especially as it started shaking out with people who actually care about cfb/cbb vs just population footprint.

You had Texas completely locked up and several smaller states where college sports are #1. It would be right next to the SEC with growth opportunities adding pac or acc schools when timing allowed.
 
HFCS

HFCS

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Sigmapolis said:
I always found it funny how the Big Ten and SEC fans would constantly tell us just how much the Big 12 sucks compared to "big boy college sports" yet they saw it fit to poach most our teams.
Click to expand...

If the Big Ten is relevant in basketball Marcus Fizer should have been national player of the year last year, because that’s how long it’s been for them.

The original B12 lineup had quite a bit of fb success, north early and south later.
 
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1SEIACLONE

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The B12 was set up to fail the moment the have schools, refused to share equal revenue distributions with the lower schools. It had the mind set of MLB, the Yankees and Dodgers are the real teams, and forgetting that they need the Pirates and Reds also. When Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma and aTm, refused to share rights equally, schools started to look to jump to greener pastures. Colorado always wanted to be the P12, aTm wanted to be away from UT, and Missouri saw what happened when the haves started flirting with the P12, and realized they were going to be shut out if they did not jump first. Hell, they had been whoring themselves out to the B10 for years, hoping to get an invite, and jumped when the SEC needed another team to pair with aTm.
 
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loyalsons4evertrue

loyalsons4evertrue

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Cycho1 said:
Wouldn't the big 10 and sec value go down in value as well without poaching the Big 12?
Click to expand...
I still think the two conference would be comparable even without OU, Texas, A&M, and Mizzou....there's no doubt the SEC has probably the largest lump sum of large brands.

Tier 1 SEC brands: Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn.

Tier 2 SEC brands: South Carolina, Ole Miss, Arkansas

Tier 3 SEC brands: Mississippi State, Kentucky

Tier 4 SEC brands: Vandy
 
Sigmapolis

Sigmapolis

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I wonder how it might change if the Big 12 had made a small number of strategic additions over time to go beyond 12 but not poach from any of the other power conferences. Maybe these guys?

BYU (obviously they're weird but they're also loaded and growing quickly)
TCU (a lot of rich blonde Texas girls with daddies who made a lot of O&G money here)
Cincinnati (not wealthy but maybe to have a foothold in Ohio?)

WVU is still in the Big East or ends up in the ACC/SEC so not really an option.

I could also see $MU in a similar light to TCU. They've got a ton of money behind them.

The old North + BYU and the old South + TCU works well enough.
 
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