Twister Sister Summary - What Does the Crystal Ball See for 25-26?

[ICCYFAN]

While I agree with you on the wins etc, I was commenting on your terms that you used "staid old" to describe Iowa State and "more fast paced" to describe UNC. I personally don't think that ISU's offense was staid. But you obviously disagree. And that is fine.

I didn't say any of those things because you weren't replying to one of my posts.

Even so, I'll play along, and I believe this is what Cloneman89 meant. IMO, ISU's standard half-court offense was boring. Two players run to the three point line and stand there. The PG dribbles around seemingly forever. We had too many turnovers force feeding the post and when that didn't work, we had five seconds of Addy going one on one. Other teams run motion offenses with screens and movement.

If we hope to improve our standing in 2025-26, we need to implement a more balanced offense. Other teams will happily allow Audi to score 30 points so long as they can "take away" two other players with focused defensive attention, while expecting to be the recipient of 10+ turnovers / game from the force-fed post. JMHO.

 

[ZorkClone]

I didn't say any of those things because you weren't replying to one of my posts.

Even so, I'll play along, and I believe this is what Cloneman89 meant. IMO, ISU's standard half-court offense was boring. Two players run to the three point line and stand there. The PG dribbles around seemingly forever. We had too many turnovers force feeding the post and when that didn't work, we had five seconds of Addy going one on one. Other teams run motion offenses with screens and movement.

If we hope to improve our standing in 2025-26, we need to implement a more balanced offense. Other teams will happily allow Audi to score 30 points so long as they can "take away" two other players with focused defensive attention, while expecting to be the recipient of 10+ turnovers / game from the force-fed post. JMHO.

I really don't think our offence was a problem other than turnovers. Although, last year isn't that far from our historical average. (See below) As I've said before this last year ISU had its seconded highest PPG ever and the highest PPG in conference play. You could argue that it isn't that fun to watch which is fair.

	TO per game	TO margin
24-25	14.6​	-1.3​
23-24	16.4​	-6.7​
22-23	13.4​	-1​
21-22	12.6​	-0.2​
20-21	13.9​	-1.6​
19-20	17​	-3.3​
18-19	13.6​	1.7​
17-18	13​	1.1​
16-17	12.4​	0.7​

Defense is clearly the problem, which involved a lot of speed and aggressiveness our team doesn't have. Jada and Hare should be quicker on average than Emily, Harris, and Jackson, but we'll have to see if that translates to better defense.

 

[MJ271]

I really don't think our offence was a problem other than turnovers. Although, last year isn't that far from our historical average. (See below) As I've said before this last year ISU had its seconded highest PPG ever and the highest PPG in conference play. You could argue that it isn't that fun to watch which is fair.

	TO per game	TO margin
24-25	14.6​	-1.3​
23-24	16.4​	-6.7​
22-23	13.4​	-1​
21-22	12.6​	-0.2​
20-21	13.9​	-1.6​
19-20	17​	-3.3​
18-19	13.6​	1.7​
17-18	13​	1.1​
16-17	12.4​	0.7​

Defense is clearly the problem, which involved a lot of speed and aggressiveness our team doesn't have. Jada and Hare should be quicker on average than Emily, Harris, and Jackson, but we'll have to see if that translates to better defense.

Digging into some of the women's stats on Barttorvik recently, I learned that I didn't realize how much higher turnovers are across the women's game vs. the men's. Iowa State's turnover rate this season was 20%, which was ranked 61st among women's teams. If placed among men's teams, that same rate would have ranked 334th.

Iowa State also had the 2nd-best assist rate in the country at 70%. If I did the calculations right in Excel, that gave Iowa State the 11th-best AST/TO ratio in the country, so the turnovers also don't look as bad when you consider that fact.

As you said, the question of defense is the biggest one, and whether a tradeoff of more size for more quickness will be beneficial in that regard.

 

[farcyted]

I am dubious that CBF will change anything. Staid old offense will be continued and versatile wings/guards discouraged as they feed the post. Donarski left for more fast paced O, Joens left as she was going to be sidelined. Hansford left as she was chastised for not shooting 3’s or screamed at for missing. We will be hard pressed to win 20.

I saw no screaming at Hansford. She didn't need to be chastised. She pretty much humiliated herself by her sub 20% 3 point shooting all year.

 

[farcyted]

“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” — Mark Twain

Casual fans care about three "statistics":
1) How many games did the team win?
2) What place did the team finish in conference?
3) How far did the team go in the NCAA tournament?
Note: ISU WBB fans also care about beating EIU - we're 2-8 for the last decade

Nobody cares about UNC's scoring woes over the past three years. Furthermore, most fans won't give a sh!t if ISU WBB averages 85 points / game next season if they don't beat Iowa, improve their win total, win conference and see the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Sounds like a nice fan.

 

[Okoboji Musky]

Speaking of Muffet McGraw and optimizing offensive systems, it was revealing how McGraw (one of CBF's mentors) was critical on ESPN of ISU's lack of offensive movement during the Michigan game.

And I will disagree that all the pieces are in place to win a conference title if Harris doesn't significantly improve her individual D along with overall team D improvement. Bill can't roll out a starting lineup with Jada W, Hare and Jackson over an entire conference schedule and seriously contend for a title.

I think the offense will improve with a slashing Williams forcing defenses to stop her. Spot up shooters should have a hay day especially sharpshooting Harris. The elephant in the room is the defense. Audi must improve her foot speed to defend from the elbow. Go back and watch the tape and you will see good coaches exploit her by posting their center at the elbow. If Crooks comes out, they send a cutter or drive aggressively past her. Stay back and many can make that shot. We had no counter to this in many games. Similarly , we had slow footed players unable to keep up with quick driving guards and forwards. Improve speed, defense improves, wins increase, further NCAA advances. We have the players, improve them coaches and trainers. Go State!

 

[WartburgClone]

The lack of punching up is a big factor in this. In 2023-24, Iowa (even though we lost), WVU, Baylor, KSU (x2) were really fun games to watch. WVU was especially fun with the huge comeback!

I'd add both Baylor games (blizzard and Big 12 tourney) and the Maryland & Stanford games.

 

[ICCYFAN]

I really don't think our offence was a problem other than turnovers. Although, last year isn't that far from our historical average. As I've said before this last year ISU had its seconded highest PPG ever and the highest PPG in conference play. You could argue that it isn't that fun to watch which is fair.

Defense is clearly the problem, which involved a lot of speed and aggressiveness our team doesn't have. Jada and Hare should be quicker on average than Emily, Harris, and Jackson, but we'll have to see if that translates to better defense.

Digging into some of the women's stats on Barttorvik recently, I learned that I didn't realize how much higher turnovers are across the women's game vs. the men's. Iowa State's turnover rate this season was 20%, which was ranked 61st among women's teams. If placed among men's teams, that same rate would have ranked 334th.

Iowa State also had the 2nd-best assist rate in the country at 70%. If I did the calculations right in Excel, that gave Iowa State the 11th-best AST/TO ratio in the country, so the turnovers also don't look as bad when you consider that fact.

As you said, the question of defense is the biggest one, and whether a tradeoff of more size for more quickness will be beneficial in that regard.

Well played - You two have made a convincing case that defensive improvement is a bigger "need" for 2025-26 than offensive balance and reduced turnovers. Thank you.

The NCAA statistics for 2025 have us ranked #83 in turnovers, with 506 in 35 games (14.5 / Game). The Big XII teams performing better than us in the TO category:

81T. - Kansas - 14.4
81T. - Houston - 14.4
64 - Baylor - 14.0
32 - Kansas State - 13.0
17 - TCU - 12.4

In my mind's eye, turnovers loomed much larger than the damned statistics would indicate. I wonder how many of ours were in the fourth quarter of close games, such that they stuck in my mind as a distinct negative?

 

[ZorkClone]

Well played - You two have made a convincing case that defensive improvement is a bigger "need" for 2025-26 than offensive balance and reduced turnovers. Thank you.

The NCAA statistics for 2025 have us ranked #83 in turnovers, with 506 in 35 games (14.5 / Game). The Big XII teams performing better than us in the TO category:

81T. - Kansas - 14.4
81T. - Houston - 14.4
64 - Baylor - 14.0
32 - Kansas State - 13.0
17 - TCU - 12.4

In my mind's eye, turnovers loomed much larger than the damned statistics would indicate. I wonder how many of ours were in the fourth quarter of close games, such that they stuck in my mind as a distinct negative?

I think it might be more illustrative to look at our turn overs in our losses. These created big holes that it was hard to fight back from.

WVU: 25
KSU game 1: 23
Baylor game 1: 21
Baylor game 2: 22
Michigan: 18

 

[acoustimac]

Well played - You two have made a convincing case that defensive improvement is a bigger "need" for 2025-26 than offensive balance and reduced turnovers. Thank you.

The NCAA statistics for 2025 have us ranked #83 in turnovers, with 506 in 35 games (14.5 / Game). The Big XII teams performing better than us in the TO category:

81T. - Kansas - 14.4
81T. - Houston - 14.4
64 - Baylor - 14.0
32 - Kansas State - 13.0
17 - TCU - 12.4

In my mind's eye, turnovers loomed much larger than the damned statistics would indicate. I wonder how many of ours were in the fourth quarter of close games, such that they stuck in my mind as a distinct negative?

There were def some games where fourth quarter turnovers were an issue. Three that come to mind are Iowa, Baylor #2, and Michigan. There were also games where we started roughly such as South Carolina and Baylor #2.