NCAA Tournament Champions Statistics

[EnkAMania]

Last year I gathered a bunch of these and developed a system to pick the winner (UConn and Purdue tied) For the teamrankings.com stat, I pro-rated it because they started in 2007. Also, the 3 point percentage was adjusted when they moved the line back. This year, I added Top 50 in offensive rebounding. My magic formula says the Duke will win the championship. Auburn was almost tied, but is 51st in offensive rebounding %. Florida and Michigan State could be the first champions not to be in KenPom's top 25 pre-season.

Criteria	Score - All Time	Streak
KenPom Top 25 Pre-Season	22	22
Week 6 AP Top 12	21	20
4 seed or better	21	9
KenPom Top 25 AdjOff	21	9
KenPom Top 25 AdjDef	21	3
Elite 8 Coaching experience	20	1
Team Rankings.com Top 6 end of year	19.41	9
Lowest KenPom rank loss <100	19	9
Reg Season or Conf Champ	19	1
6 or fewer losses	18	1
Top 50 in Off Reb	16	4
3 Pt % >35	16	6

 

[charlie_B]

 

[ClonesFTW]

The one stat that leads me away from Duke is freshman contribution - I forget where I saw it but teams with high freshman usage rates have not won a title in at least 10 years.

 

[Chitowncy]

Yeah, watching Duke share the basketball and play as a team is pretty impressive. They've rolled through good competition. Even with Flagg out they won the ACC tournament. Flagg is a generational talent, but like ClonesFTW stated, teams with high freshman usage typically don't win it all. They're just younger and less experienced than those teams with a good balance of mostly upper classmen contributors.

We shall see. Opened this hoping ISU was predicted to win! Hah!

 

[KennyPratt42]

Yeah, watching Duke share the basketball and play as a team is pretty impressive. They've rolled through good competition. Even with Flagg out they won the ACC tournament. Flagg is a generational talent, but like ClonesFTW stated, teams with high freshman usage typically don't win it all. They're just younger and less experienced than those teams with a good balance of mostly upper classmen contributors.

We shall see. Opened this hoping ISU was predicted to win! Hah!

Duke Blue Devils NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2025 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Duke Blue Devils 2025 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants

www.warrennolan.com

A whole lot of their wins since December when ACC play started have been Q2b and below. Not to say they haven't looked good, but its not the same as what Houston or Auburn have done.

 

[dahliaclone]

Yeah, watching Duke share the basketball and play as a team is pretty impressive. They've rolled through good competition. Even with Flagg out they won the ACC tournament. Flagg is a generational talent, but like ClonesFTW stated, teams with high freshman usage typically don't win it all. They're just younger and less experienced than those teams with a good balance of mostly upper classmen contributors.

We shall see. Opened this hoping ISU was predicted to win! Hah!

Gonna need you to break down what 'good competition' is because until Louisville in the ACC title game, their last game against a ranked team was early December.

 

[EnkAMania]

The one stat that leads me away from Duke is freshman contribution - I forget where I saw it but teams with high freshman usage rates have not won a title in at least 10 years.

I think it was Evan Miya, I'll dig around and see if I can find it.

 

[EnkAMania]

Fun fact: The only top 25 offensive team not to make the tournament….your iowa hawks