I think a lot of Gach's decision comes down to whether or not Minnesota's PG is going to withdraw from the draft or not.. If he does withdraw, Gach is most likely ours. If he doesn't, he's definitely going to Minnesota.
The best likelihood Both gets a waiver is based on the proximity of his school choice. That's why Iowa State and Minnesota are the front runners (known).
I suspect Gach initially was convinced to leave Utah and going to UofM with a behind the doors deal from Pitino to get to play on ball some but with Carr. We've already seen him do that with the Drake C early this year. *allegedly.
My hope is ISU contacting him was unexpected and Prohm's pitch on his PG role, prior pro success and same proximity waiver chances (if not better with ISU track record) had turned his head. I think even most Minnesota fans realize the situation in Ames is better for Gach today.