Cyclones draw Michigan as first opponent in Battle 4 Atlantis

[Sigmapolis]

I think we’ll be 4 to 5 point dogs if I were guessing now.

Barttorik projections...

Michigan
---
110.4 adjusted per 100 on offense
93.2 adjusted per 100 on defense
= +17.2 adjusted net per 100

Iowa State
---
112.4 adjusted per 100 on offense
98.0 adjusted per 100 on defense
= +14.4 adjusted net per 100

The ISU numbers do not include Bolton -- they presume Lewis, Griffin, or one of the freshmen guards is starting for us. That is reasonable. Bolton might end up playing for us, however, and he is probably worth say 1.5 points per 100 over the other options. I am not trying to talk down to anybody else on the roster, but we have seen Bolton do it at a high-major in the Big Ten, while the other guys are true freshmen or career bench-warmers.

Adding 1.5 per 100 is roughly like adding one point per game, which seems reasonable if not conservative towards the impact that Bolton might have on the team next season.

w/o Bolton, that makes Michigan a +2.8 on a neutral floor
w/ Bolton, assuming he is worth +1.5, that makes it a +1.3 for Michigan

Multiply those per 100 stats by roughly 70 possession per college game...

w/o Bolton, Michigan +1.96... so roughly two
w/ Bolton, Michigan +0.91... so roughly one, maybe even a pick

That is a pretty close match-up either way. The projections like our roster's potential on offense more than theirs, but that program has a better defensive track record.

 

[cyfanatic13]

F McGary

Reminds me of one of my favorite tweets of all time

 

[mj4cy]

Chance to play some names. Michigan/UNC ect.

 

[JRE1975]

I will be happy to leave the Bahamas with 2-1 record in the games. tough tournament, but good exposure if we play well.

 

[nfrine]

F McGary

JorBo, is that you?

 

[CycloneBob]

Can anyone planning to go share any travel information as we've not been in the Bahamas?

 

[Halincandenza]

Barttorik projections...

Michigan
---
110.4 adjusted per 100 on offense
93.2 adjusted per 100 on defense
= +17.2 adjusted net per 100

Iowa State
---
112.4 adjusted per 100 on offense
98.0 adjusted per 100 on defense
= +14.4 adjusted net per 100

The ISU numbers do not include Bolton -- they presume Lewis, Griffin, or one of the freshmen guards is starting for us. That is reasonable. Bolton might end up playing for us, however, and he is probably worth say 1.5 points per 100 over the other options. I am not trying to talk down to anybody else on the roster, but we have seen Bolton do it at a high-major in the Big Ten, while the other guys are true freshmen or career bench-warmers.

Adding 1.5 per 100 is roughly like adding one point per game, which seems reasonable if not conservative towards the impact that Bolton might have on the team next season.

w/o Bolton, that makes Michigan a +2.8 on a neutral floor
w/ Bolton, assuming he is worth +1.5, that makes it a +1.3 for Michigan

Multiply those per 100 stats by roughly 70 possession per college game...

w/o Bolton, Michigan +1.96... so roughly two
w/ Bolton, Michigan +0.91... so roughly one, maybe even a pick

That is a pretty close match-up either way. The projections like our roster's potential on offense more than theirs, but that program has a better defensive track record.

A better defensive track record with their previous coach and more specifically with their previous assistant. I think any projections of Michigan based off how they have been are going to be off because there is no way to know what kind of coach Howard will be including what kind of defense and offense they will play.

 

[Sigmapolis]

A better defensive track record with their previous coach and more specifically with their previous assistant. I think any projections of Michigan based off how they have been are going to be off because there is no way to know what kind of coach Howard will be including what kind of defense and offense they will play.

The Barttorvik projections do offense on a player-by-player basis...

-- start with their stats last year
-- has some model to improve offensive efficiency for the next season
-- add in recruits based on their rankings/position/etc.

Then sum all that up with some projections of playing time.

Defense, however, he uses a "trend" analysis by program instead of anything on an individual player basis. His argument is a fair one that teams tend to have pretty consistent defensive statistics year-to-year, which is a function of their culture, coaching staff, talent levels, and tradition. I think he adds some bonus for height across the roster. The point is somewhat sound -- I know UVA is going to be a good defensive team this year like every other year. I do not need a fancy model to point out that trend that they always seem to be good at defense.

Your point that reputation might be moot with the regime change might have some merit. Then again, there is some continuity in the locker room. It will be interesting to see.

 

[Messi]

 

[cyclonpediaJoe]

4 star out early. Could be good if he emerges early. Could be bad as sometimes freshman take awhile to get comfortable. Looks like Michigan was outside the top 25 AP today.

 

[CyPunch]

4 star out early. Could be good if he emerges early. Could be bad as sometimes freshman take awhile to get comfortable. Looks like Michigan was outside the top 25 AP today.

Pretty fair to assume he is an immediate contributor for Michigan. He was playing in the Top German league (Bundeseliga) last year as a 17 year old. He's not your average 4 star recruit.

 

[RonBurgundy]

I see Michigan only received 2 votes in pre-season AP poll. ISU none. Should be a good test.

 

[cdface]

I see Michigan only received 2 votes in pre-season AP poll. ISU none. Should be a good test.

i'll just say that i fondly remember the last time ISU played UM...

 

[greatshu]

I wish I can go to Bahama. I emptied my bank account after my last trip to Maui Invite. I hope everyone have fun. I will see you in Florida next year.