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Recent content by jjmcillece

  1. J

    2012 AP Poll Predictions

    This I can understand. What someone like me considers accurate might seem too far off target to be meaningful to others. Depends on your frame of reference. There is a lot of variability in these things. A bigger chunk than you might think is predictable, and then the rest is random noise...
  2. J

    2012 AP Poll Predictions

    I see their offense dropping off significantly, from about 49 points per game to the low 30s, which is still decent. I think their defense improves over last year. Not enough to offset all the offense lost by Blackmon, Weeden, etc. They won't be nearly as dangerous as last season, but good...
  3. J

    2012 AP Poll Predictions

    That's all right. I'll let it go now, as there isn't much point arguing about such things. Only time can tell how accurate I will be. Hearing that I make things up was quite irritating, however, given the time and effort I've invested in college football analysis over the years.
  4. J

    2012 AP Poll Predictions

    Yeah, that's what I do. The smart guys are always the ones who do nothing. It's easier to trash other people's efforts if you haven't tried it yourself.
  5. J

    2012 AP Poll Predictions

    That's a rather simple way of discrediting something because it's contrary to common perceptions. Nobody expected Cincinnati to be ranked in 2011, coming off a 4-8 season, but I had them in my top 25. I realize Army seems like the ultimate longshot, but I believe they can hit double-digit...
  6. J

    Another site giving ISU no respect.

    That is the single worst "preview" I have ever seen. Not sure why you would bother to link such nothingness.
  7. J

    Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Correct.
  8. J

    Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Less than 10%. As I mentioned in the preview, I underrated ISU two years running. I don't shy away from discussing how accurate I was about a given team. It's important to recognize that there is a tremendous amount of variability in how a college football season will unfold, and analysis...
  9. J

    Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    I did account for the offensive ranking last year in my prediction. A low-ranked offense one year is a positive indicator for the upcoming season, meaning that I increased ISU's expected power rating as a result of having low yardage output in 2010.
  10. J

    Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    I didn't care for that comment. Pointless.
  11. J

    Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    I don't know if this is a serious question or not, but no, I do not write for Athlon. I did interview in Bristol and considered a job with a new analysis team ESPN created last winter. I wrote this ISU preview mostly for my good friend psychlone99, who appreciates statistically-based...
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