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Recent content by Hacksaw

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    Ideal Big 12 Tourney Draw

    Here is a different visual that shows cumulative seeding odds for the last 5 games:
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    Ideal Big 12 Tourney Draw

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    Big 12 Tournament Seed Probabilities (Long)

    Nice work Hoops! This thread has been great. For a visual representation of the final seeding possibilities, I've created this chart (the weighted odds I use are from Sagarin instead of Massey however):
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    2 Seed in K.C.

    Updated with the final 32 scenarios and sorted by ISU seed:
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    2 Seed in K.C.

    Oh, absolutely, and I completely agree. Just trying to get some info out there in the meantime for anybody who wanted to dig in.
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    2 Seed in K.C.

    I like that request. Is this what you are looking for?
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    2 Seed in K.C.

    Here are the remaining 64 scenarios (game winners on the left, seeds on the right):
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    mred's 2015 Big 12 Bracket Generator

    One more analysis, here are the potential seed & first opponent combinations (the 1 seed lists the 8 seed, the 2 seed lists the 7 seed, the 3 seed lists the 6 seed, etc): And just the opponents, regardless of seed:
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    mred's 2015 Big 12 Bracket Generator

    Here are all the remaining scenarios assuming each remaining game is a coin-flip: Here are the remaining scenarios, weighted with the win probabilities from Sagarin's Predictor (pulled from rpiforecast.com):
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    mred's 2015 Big 12 Bracket Generator

    This is exactly how I see it as well. If anyone wants the visual representation of the remaining scenarios, this is what I've put together. The game winners are on the left, the seed outcomes are on the right.
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    Final conference standings - who will finish 7th?

    Using the game win probabilities based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor (pulled from rpiforecast.com this morning and shown below), below are the results of 100,000 simulations:
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    Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    The final 32 possible scenarios in convenient graph form:
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    Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    Updated probabilities: Updated weighted probabilities: Possible Seed/Opponent Combos: Kansas State: 53.7% Texas: 27.4% Oklahoma: 13.6% West Virginia: 4.1% Baylor: 1.1% 4/5 Game: 91.4% 3/6 Game: 8.5% 2/(7/10) Game: 0.02%
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    Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    With 10 conference games remaining, there are 1,024 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is...
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    Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

    With 15 conference games remaining, there are 32,768 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is...
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