2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

  • After Iowa State won the Big 12, a Cyclone made a wonderful offer to We Will that now increases our match. Now all gifts up to $400,000 between now and the Final 4 will be matched. Please consider giving at We Will Collective.
    This notice can be dismissed using the upper right corner X button.

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,876
36,695
113
Waukee

cyclones500

Well-Known Member
Jan 29, 2010
35,663
23,144
113
Michigan
basslakebeacon.com

CascadeClone

Well-Known Member
Oct 24, 2009
8,945
10,681
113
Heh! That's awesome.

Among favorite quotes: "I recorded the sound of a wooden paddle sliding under a pizza in a scorching-hot oven. It’s just three seconds long, but we slowed it down to four minutes.”

I would be shocked if that quote isn't actually stolen from a real-world band somewhere.

The Onion is a national treasure.
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,876
36,695
113
Waukee
Now that Gilbert is committed --

1681137504856.png

The BT model seems to like Gilbert -- an attractive blend of efficiency and volume. I would imagine he's a starter next year with Lipsey and maybe one other transfer guard if things shake out.

The team ended last season #29 on BT (went up one spot since the last update because Connecticut dominating the tournament pulled Iowa State's non-con strength of schedule up a little).
 
Last edited:

madguy30

Well-Known Member
Nov 15, 2011
49,754
46,494
113
Now that Gilbert is committed --


View attachment 111897

The BT model seems to like Gilbert -- an attractive blend of efficiency and volume. I would imagine he's a starter next year with Lipsey and maybe one other transfer guard if things shake out.

The team ended last season #29 on BT (went up one spot since the last update because Connecticut dominating the tournament pulled Iowa State's non-con strength of schedule up a little).

No Williams?
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,876
36,695
113
Waukee
What does it look like with Gilbert, Pav and Curtis Jones added?

I found a way to add back in Williams plus the two commits and Curtis Jones.

1681147868058.png

Observations --

-- The model really likes Lipsey and Biliew. This is fine by me. Those two need to be ballers -- in the range of some sort of all-Big 12 honors -- if we're going to reach the tournament again.

-- The model really likes Jeremiah Williams. I think this might underestimate him, too, considering this uses his stats from his sophomore season at Temple rather than any progression as a junior.

-- Gilbert, Paveletzke, and Jones don't move the needle collectively but they do individually. See the team stayed at #31 even after adding them. This tells me these additions might not raise the ceiling of the team much but it does provide additional depth/competition that raises the team's floor.

-- Way underestimating Tre King if what we hope for him next year is to come to pass.

-- Jones is probably down more in the range of minutes people would want for him.
 

1UNI2ISU

Well-Known Member
Jan 30, 2013
6,864
8,680
113
Waterloo
Didn't see a schedule thread anywhere yet but Iowa State will open on November 6th with Green Bay per Rocco Miller.
 

Cyclones125

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2016
243
340
63
I found a way to add back in Williams plus the two commits and Curtis Jones.

View attachment 111904

Observations --

-- The model really likes Lipsey and Biliew. This is fine by me. Those two need to be ballers -- in the range of some sort of all-Big 12 honors -- if we're going to reach the tournament again.

-- The model really likes Jeremiah Williams. I think this might underestimate him, too, considering this uses his stats from his sophomore season at Temple rather than any progression as a junior.

-- Gilbert, Paveletzke, and Jones don't move the needle collectively but they do individually. See the team stayed at #31 even after adding them. This tells me these additions might not raise the ceiling of the team much but it does provide additional depth/competition that raises the team's floor.

-- Way underestimating Tre King if what we hope for him next year is to come to pass.

-- Jones is probably down more in the range of minutes people would want for him.
This roster is looking insanely deep. Even if we assume Jamilton/Fish only get garbage minutes, that's still 11 guys who I would guess are expecting 15+ min per game.
 

1UNI2ISU

Well-Known Member
Jan 30, 2013
6,864
8,680
113
Waterloo
Schedule is done per Rocco Miller--

11/6--Green Bay (NET 361)
11/9--Lindenwood (338)
11/12--Idaho State (252)
11/19--Grambling (186)
11/23-26-ESPN Events Invitational Orlando
12/1--at DePaul (155)
12/7--Iowa (38)
12/10--Prairie View A&M (281)
12/17--Florida A&M (359)
12/21--Eastern Illinois (345)
12/31-New Hampshire (267)

That's, um, underwhelming.
 
Last edited:

Statefan10

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
May 20, 2019
19,938
24,723
113
Schedule is done per Rocco Miller--

11/6--Green Bay
11/9--Lindenwood
11/12--Idaho State
11/19--Grambling
11/23-26-ESPN Events Invitational Orlando
12/1--at DePaul
12/7--Iowa
12/10--Prairie View A&M
12/17--Florida A&M
12/21--Eastern Illinois
12/31-New Hampshire

That's, um, underwhelming.
That’s only one less P5 team than we had on last year’s schedule though right?
 

Cyclonepride

Thought Police
Staff member
Apr 11, 2006
96,591
57,460
113
53
A pineapple under the sea
www.oldschoolradical.com
Schedule is done per Rocco Miller--

11/6--Green Bay (NET 361)
11/9--Lindenwood (338)
11/12--Idaho State (252)
11/19--Grambling (186)
11/23-26-ESPN Events Invitational Orlando
12/1--at DePaul (155)
12/7--Iowa (38)
12/10--Prairie View A&M (281)
12/17--Florida A&M (359)
12/21--Eastern Illinois (345)
12/31-New Hampshire (267)

That's, um, underwhelming.
We're going to be really young, so that is fine with me. The Big 12 will give us plenty of opportunities for quality wins.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VeloClone