2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

Heh! That's awesome.

Among favorite quotes: "I recorded the sound of a wooden paddle sliding under a pizza in a scorching-hot oven. It’s just three seconds long, but we slowed it down to four minutes.”

I would be shocked if that quote isn't actually stolen from a real-world band somewhere.

The Onion is a national treasure.
 
Now that Gilbert is committed --

1681137504856.png

The BT model seems to like Gilbert -- an attractive blend of efficiency and volume. I would imagine he's a starter next year with Lipsey and maybe one other transfer guard if things shake out.

The team ended last season #29 on BT (went up one spot since the last update because Connecticut dominating the tournament pulled Iowa State's non-con strength of schedule up a little).
 
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Now that Gilbert is committed --


View attachment 111897

The BT model seems to like Gilbert -- an attractive blend of efficiency and volume. I would imagine he's a starter next year with Lipsey and maybe one other transfer guard if things shake out.

The team ended last season #29 on BT (went up one spot since the last update because Connecticut dominating the tournament pulled Iowa State's non-con strength of schedule up a little).

No Williams?
 
What does it look like with Gilbert, Pav and Curtis Jones added?

I found a way to add back in Williams plus the two commits and Curtis Jones.

1681147868058.png

Observations --

-- The model really likes Lipsey and Biliew. This is fine by me. Those two need to be ballers -- in the range of some sort of all-Big 12 honors -- if we're going to reach the tournament again.

-- The model really likes Jeremiah Williams. I think this might underestimate him, too, considering this uses his stats from his sophomore season at Temple rather than any progression as a junior.

-- Gilbert, Paveletzke, and Jones don't move the needle collectively but they do individually. See the team stayed at #31 even after adding them. This tells me these additions might not raise the ceiling of the team much but it does provide additional depth/competition that raises the team's floor.

-- Way underestimating Tre King if what we hope for him next year is to come to pass.

-- Jones is probably down more in the range of minutes people would want for him.
 
Didn't see a schedule thread anywhere yet but Iowa State will open on November 6th with Green Bay per Rocco Miller.
 
I found a way to add back in Williams plus the two commits and Curtis Jones.

View attachment 111904

Observations --

-- The model really likes Lipsey and Biliew. This is fine by me. Those two need to be ballers -- in the range of some sort of all-Big 12 honors -- if we're going to reach the tournament again.

-- The model really likes Jeremiah Williams. I think this might underestimate him, too, considering this uses his stats from his sophomore season at Temple rather than any progression as a junior.

-- Gilbert, Paveletzke, and Jones don't move the needle collectively but they do individually. See the team stayed at #31 even after adding them. This tells me these additions might not raise the ceiling of the team much but it does provide additional depth/competition that raises the team's floor.

-- Way underestimating Tre King if what we hope for him next year is to come to pass.

-- Jones is probably down more in the range of minutes people would want for him.
This roster is looking insanely deep. Even if we assume Jamilton/Fish only get garbage minutes, that's still 11 guys who I would guess are expecting 15+ min per game.
 
Schedule is done per Rocco Miller--

11/6--Green Bay (NET 361)
11/9--Lindenwood (338)
11/12--Idaho State (252)
11/19--Grambling (186)
11/23-26-ESPN Events Invitational Orlando
12/1--at DePaul (155)
12/7--Iowa (38)
12/10--Prairie View A&M (281)
12/17--Florida A&M (359)
12/21--Eastern Illinois (345)
12/31-New Hampshire (267)

That's, um, underwhelming.
 
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Schedule is done per Rocco Miller--

11/6--Green Bay
11/9--Lindenwood
11/12--Idaho State
11/19--Grambling
11/23-26-ESPN Events Invitational Orlando
12/1--at DePaul
12/7--Iowa
12/10--Prairie View A&M
12/17--Florida A&M
12/21--Eastern Illinois
12/31-New Hampshire

That's, um, underwhelming.
That’s only one less P5 team than we had on last year’s schedule though right?
 
Schedule is done per Rocco Miller--

11/6--Green Bay (NET 361)
11/9--Lindenwood (338)
11/12--Idaho State (252)
11/19--Grambling (186)
11/23-26-ESPN Events Invitational Orlando
12/1--at DePaul (155)
12/7--Iowa (38)
12/10--Prairie View A&M (281)
12/17--Florida A&M (359)
12/21--Eastern Illinois (345)
12/31-New Hampshire (267)

That's, um, underwhelming.
We're going to be really young, so that is fine with me. The Big 12 will give us plenty of opportunities for quality wins.
 
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