* Hoiberg Watch 2015: Wednesday, May 27 Thread
- Thread starter ChrisMWilliams
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You are SO right about the "March crapshoot". That's why Mercer/Duke's happen. And UAB/ISU's happen. Do some of our fans REALLY know how easy it is to have a game go down the wire with the possibility of losing against ANY team? Especially in March. And the suggestion above that "anything less than an Elite 8 would be a disappointment" frustrates me. Do we know its possible? Absolutely. Would our own players be extremely disappointed? Of course. But, people, Fred or no Fred, anything can happen in March. Throw in Babb's injury, then Georges injury, then UAB.....nobody knows this more than Fred.
But where were they hired from at their existing schools? They weren't gambles at the point hired for the most part (Bo Ryan was certainly). Let the smaller schools that need to gamble gamble. We have no need to gamble now especially when we have something to lose.
Elite 8 coaches where they were before (where thy started is irrelevant):
Bo Ryan- Division 3
Izzo - Assistant at Michigan State
Calipari - went to final fours w/ Memphis and UMass and coached in the NBA, assistant at Kansas.
Miller- successful HC at Xavier
Brey- HC at Delaware, long time Assistant at Duke
Few- Assistant at Gonzaga
Pitino-NBA, Kentucky (won National Title)
Coach K- HC at Army, asst. under Bob Knight.
The only hire out of this bunch similar to jumping to the mid major well (or lower) was Bo Ryan. Sean Miller is comparable to hiring an Archie Miller but the others all have high major experience as an assistan which is big for recruiting or were assistants at the schools and promoted. This notion that hiring from mid majors HC with no high major experience is not a huge risk is false and they do fail more often than succeed when they make that direct jump. Good coaches can come from there but it is not that common for them to come in lighting the world on fire with no high major experience.
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I think there is a lot less downside risk in landing a former Cyclone who also happens to be a former NBA great, and current NBA coach.
It would be a home run hire, IMO.
So one of the top head coach candidates really meant one of the top 11 head coaching candidates who have never been a head coach at the D1 level.
I would be totally fine with that. Because if the NBA wants him back in three years, that means we've had three additional years of success. Which means we have continues to build momentum and prestige for our program. That's a good problem to have three years down the road. Don't get me wrong...I'd rather have a successful coach who stays a lot long than that, but if we can keep winning and making some NCAA noise in March for the next three years, I'll take it.
CycloneErik
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Yes. I can't imagine that it means he's one of the very top candidates overall.
The comparisons of Otz now and CFH 5 years ago are completely idiotic. Fred played I the freaking NBA for 10 years and was an AA basketball player. Fred learned the game from Larry Brown, flip Sainders, Larry bird, Kevin Mchale etc.. Those are 4 NCAA and NBA hall of fame players/ coaches. Fred is as cerebral as cerebral gets...Otz is the complete opposite..he's a charmer...a relationship builder...a salesman. Two entirely different people with two entirely different traits. Now Otz might end up being a HOF coach someday..who knows...but the risk of hiring Otz at this stage of the program with his lack of HC experience is far far greater than hiring Fred 5 years ago and it's not even close. I'd love to see the risk assessment reports that hiring firms spit out that JP will get if Fred leaves cause I can assure u that TJ will be at the very bottom of that chart.
There is risk with every hire - unless you can get a proven winner who has done it at multiple places like a Lon Kruger. We went the mid-major route once and got a hot prospect that was mentioned for a lot of potential openings. Thankfully, Creighton took him off our hands. JP gets killed for that hire but the fact is that Greg was a hot prospect that built a program from nothing.
While I am not advocating for TJ, there is something to be said for an assistant taking over for the head coach too. I bet the Oregon football team isn't too unhappy after Chip Kelly left for the NFL.
Definitely a big unknown, but so is probably anything. I'd be okay with Otz. He coached with McDermott so he knows was doesn't work in the Big 12. He was smart enough to stay at Iowa State with a completely unproven head coach instead of following McDermott to a place where he could excel, so I think he's a good judge of talent. He can recruit. There are cases of assistant coaches jumping to major level and doing pretty well. Tommy Amaker, Tom Izzo, Roy Williams, Sean Miller (Xavier wasn't a major team, but they were a very high mid-major), Tony Bennett, Steve Fisher, Jamie Dixon, Mark Few (Gonzaga is a major), Rick Barnes (1 year at a mid-major), Buzz Williams (1 year at a mid-major), Kevin Ollie, Leonard Hamilton, Tom Crean, Josh Pastner.
I'd be happy with Hornacek, but there are unknowns there. Can he recruit? Can he teach players rather than just managing them at the NBA level. How is he at game planning at the college level where you have several days to implement a game plan for a team rather than the fast paced turn around at the NBA level.
I'd be okay hiring a mid-major head coach, but there are unknowns there as well. Would it work out like Floyd/Eustachy or would it work out like McDermott. It could be great, it could fail.
I wonder if following up Hoiberg will scare any potential coaches away. Lets be honest, they could come in next year, have a great year with that team then fall flat on their face in 2016 and our fan base will crucify them.
We are 2 for our last 3 with our mid-major hires. There is risk with every hire, but I'd rather take a risk on a guy that has shown he can coach instead of a guy we hope can coach.
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This. And I'm not sure Fred will be able to live up to expectations for next year. Short of an Elite Eight, I am not sure a new coach would.
But is that really the choice?
Names we have heard as possible candidates being considered (some have been disputed):
Hornacek: NBA coach
Larry Brown: Former NBA and KU HC
Tim Floyd: Former NBA and ISU HC
Otz: long Time ISU and Washington Assistant.
Really the debate right now isn't mid major only experience vs. Long time asst. It is NBA coach vs. Long time assistant. I don't think we hire a guy that has no experience at the high major or NBA level.
Actually, I wouldn't call Floyd or Eustachy mid-major hires. They were low-major hires.
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