Mar 17, 2024; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood and Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) walk to the media room after defeating Wisconsin Badgers at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
BOSTON — Putting his asinine Iowa fandom aside for a moment, my good friend and Iowa Everywhere podcast partner Chris Hassel made a phenomenal point on our show Thursday morning. He called what could be a potential Iowa State win over Illinois on Thursday night (estimated 9:09 central tip on TBS) “generational.”
It’s fantastic analysis leading up to this game.
Iowa State hasn’t been to an Elite 8 since the year 2000 (great, or terrible memories depending on your perspective). To use Hassel’s exact words, “If you’re 30 years old right now, you don’t even remember it.”
I wasn’t an Iowa State fan at the time, but I remember watching that game with passionate fans. It was the first experience in my young life where I saw a mix of alcohol and vandalism within the innocent home of a friend. Poor Larry.
Listen … I’m simply trying to put the opportunity in front of T.J. Otzelberger’s program into perspective. Yes, Iowa State has been to multiple Sweet 16’s in its modern era, so this spot isn’t new. But the Elite 8? That is special stuff. Iowa State is only 1-5 in Sweet 16 games in the program’s history. You have to go back to 1944 to find the program’s only Final Four appearance.
There is a lot of work to be done to get there though as the Cyclones will have to get past the top-ranked offense in all of college basketball and former Big 12 coach (Oklahoma State) Brad Underwood.
THE TERRANCE SHANNON CONUNDRUM … No. 1 vs. No. 1: Enter another former Big 12 foe into the mix … Illinois’ dynamic fifth-year point guard and former Texas Tech Red Raider, Terrance Shannon.
“Terrance Shannon is probably as aggressive and is playing as well as anybody in the country,” Otzelberger said. “They have size everywhere. They don’t start anybody below 6-6.”
Shannon is averaging 23.3 points per game to go with 4.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists this season. He’s a 36 percent 3-point shooter and beside cohort, Marcus Domask (formerly of Southern Illinois), has led the Illini on a six-game winning streak (the third longest in the country).
“He’s so much more aggressive downhill and in transition,” said Otzelberger in comparing Shannon to his time in the Big 12. “They have frontline guys who can really shoot so the spacing is there for him. You can tell that he knows he’s the guy. In transition, half court, late clock. He is playing with a really high level of confidence. He was a good player early on but the level he is playing now is totally different.”
The question arises as to how Iowa State will opt to defend the First-Team All-Big Ten guard. Being the nation’s top-ranked defense, Iowa State has plenty of options.
You could go with Tamin Lipsey, who was recently named to the Big 12’s All-Defensive team. Of course, Keshon Gilbert is a fine option. He absolutely locked down Washington State’s Jaylen Wells in the second half of Iowa State’s Round of 32 victory over the Cougars last Saturday in Omaha.
I expect to see Demarion Watson come off the bench and help. That’s likely the direction this will take—a concerted team effort. That’s what’s great about Iowa State’s defense. There are fantastic individual parts, but what they can do as a team is what makes it elite.
Illinois coach Brad Underwood has compared playing Iowa State to a football game by basically saying, “It’s ok to punt.”
“You have to be very decisive in your decisions,” Underwood said. “They have two guys who do a great job of raking and taking it out of your hands. They are in constant rotation. You have to try to avoid the pick sixes. Take the five seconds if you are in trouble. Punt it.”
Of course, the “pick six” that Underwood is referring to is a live ball turnover that the Cyclones have feasted off of this season. Ranked first overall in defensive efficiency, Iowa State is additionally ranked second in turnover percentage.
For what its worth: The last time Iowa State saw Terrance Shannon was in the 2021 Big 12 Tournament … Texas Tech beat the Cyclones 72-41 (I’m sorry for the reminder). Shannon had 15 points and four rebounds.
HOW GOOD IS ILLINOIS?: A fascinating question…
They are obviously a very formidable opponent that Iowa State will have a difficult time with. Nobody is taking Illinois lightly. But, let’s break down this resume in more depth.
On this six-game winning streak, the best teams Illinois has beaten are Wisconsin and Nebraska – two NCAA Tournament flops. The average defensive rating Illinois has faced during that stretch is 77.2. Duquesne is the highest-ranked defensive squad Illinois has seen during the stretch coming in at No. 31.
According to KenPom.com, the highest rated team Illinois has beaten this year is that Wisconsin squad. Against commonly ranked opponents to Iowa State, Illinois is 0-5 with losses to Purdue (twice), Michigan State, Tennessee and Marquette.
Illinois hasn’t faced a top-10 defense since losing to Tennessee on Dec. 9. That is the only top-10 defense Illinois has played all season long.
Illinois defeated Morehead State (ranked 116th) and Duquesne (ranked 87th) to get to the Sweet 16.
It is dangerous to doubt at team as hot as this Illinois squad, but Iowa State’s resume is much, much stronger. The above is a fair point to ponder.
THE OTHER SIDE: Now I ask myself, “How has Iowa State performed against similarly ranked teams to Illinois?”
Illinois’ defense is rated No. 92 nationally. That would put them 13th in the Big 12, only in front of Oklahoma State (129) and West Virginia (177). Besides that, the next lowest ranked defense in the Big 12 is Baylor at No. 69 and then Texas Tech at 64.
On the flip-side, Iowa State is 5-3 vs. top-20 offenses this season.
None of this is perfect in predicting what the outcome will be, but it is interesting.
A CRAZY STAT: The following blew my mind as I researched Illinois…
This is a program that hasn’t been to a Sweet 16 since 2005! “Since You’ve Been Gone” by Kelly Clarkson was the No. 1 song in America at that time. Brad Underwood has NEVER coached in a Sweet 16. To stay on the Kelly Clarkson theme, Underwood has waited a lifetime for “A Moment Like This.”
FINAL THOUGHTS: Iowa State can’t come out and start 3-of-16 and beat the sharp-shooting Illini. But if the Cyclones do indeed shoot it well, I really, really like the matchup.
The best Big 12 comparison I would give Illinois is perhaps Baylor? Really good on offense and average on defense. Iowa State beat the Bears in the Big 12 Tournament and probably should have won that game in Waco.
I know Otzelberger’s mindset well and can guarantee you that he’s preaching, “Our defense is better than their offense. Prove it.”
The Cyclones are about to get their chance at that, and will attempt to make some program history along the way.
