Merged Covid Megathread

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carvers4math

Well-Known Member
Mar 15, 2012
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Personally speaking my flock of children have been in person every day this school year and have yet to have a substitute teacher due to covid.
This is only a small part of the substitute shortage.

Our small district has had 8 teachers out with Covid. So 8 teachers out two weeks, but still not the biggest problem.

Public health is telling teachers that they can teach in a mask and shield if in “quarantine” due to contact, but they cannot go anywhere else, so quarantined teachers do not contribute to the sub problem.

Our district relies primarily on substitutes who are retired teachers and they do not want to sub as they fall in at risk categories.

Beyond subs for teachers with Covid, you still need them for all the other reasons you need subs. My 62 year hypertensive SIL subbing for weeks for a teacher who had a baby.

You still need subs when a teacher is out for surgery or other medical reasons. One of the high school teachers is out a few days with ACL surgery.

At least here, the supply of subs is the biggest part of the problem since the vast majority of them are older and at risk.
 
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CloneJD

Active Member
May 14, 2020
283
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This is only a small part of the substitute shortage.

Our small district has had 8 teachers out with Covid. So 8 teachers out two weeks, but still not the biggest problem.

Public health is telling teachers that they can teach in a mask and shield if in “quarantine” due to contact, but they cannot go anywhere else, so quarantined teachers do not contribute to the sub problem.

Our district relies primarily on substitutes who are retired teachers and they do not want to sub as they fall in at risk categories.

Beyond subs for teachers with Covid, you still need them for all the other reasons you need subs. My 62 year hypertensive SIL subbing for weeks for a teacher who had a baby.

You still need subs when a teacher is out for surgery or other medical reasons. One of the high school teachers is out a few days with ACL surgery.

At least here, the supply of subs is the biggest part of the problem since the vast majority of them are older and at risk.
I'm not denying that substitutes are a challenge this year for many districts. But the vast majority of districts have tried to press ahead with in-person learning as much as possible which I commend.
 

CycloneErik

Well-Known Member
Jan 31, 2008
92,502
30,395
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Jamerica
rememberingdoria.wordpress.com
I think "definitely not working out so well" is a bridge too far.

I think many of those that have kids going to school in person would attest the learning experience is much better than at home, even with the challenges present in a covid environment. I think many school boards agreed which as why they were switching to 100% in person before the recent spike.

Personally speaking my flock of children have been in person every day this school year and have yet to have a substitute teacher due to covid.
It can't be working too well for the "urban" schools with the staffing problems.
 

isutrevman

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SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Jan 30, 2007
4,863
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Ames, IA
Iowa positive case 7-day average down 5 days in a row from November 15 to November 20. Total drop of 17.1%. https://covidtracking.com/data/state/iowa
Hospitalizations falling fast the last 3-4 days. Fall Midwest wave appears to be trending about 2 weeks behind the fall wave in Europe. Europe's "wave" is ending fast.
 

clonechemist

Active Member
Apr 3, 2007
455
231
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Philadelphia

Straightforward analysis shows that deaths track about 22 days after cases, using a multiplier of 0.017 (when looking at both as a 7 day rolling average).

That would project Iowa peaks at 78 deaths/day (again, as 7 day rolling average) two weeks from today, and then death rate starts falling (hopefully the recent drop in Iowa’s new cases is a real trend and not just noise).

That would also project we approach 3,000 deaths/day nationally around December 14.
 
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isutrevman

Well-Known Member
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SuperFanatic T2
Jan 30, 2007
4,863
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Ames, IA

Straightforward analysis shows that deaths track about 22 days after cases, using a multiplier of 0.017 (when looking at both as a 7 day rolling average).

That would project Iowa peaks at 78 deaths/day (again, as 7 day rolling average) two weeks from today, and then death rate starts falling (hopefully the recent drop in Iowa’s new cases is a real trend and not just noise).

That would also project we approach 3,000 deaths/day nationally around December 14.
Iowa hospitalizations have dropped 4-5 days in a row, so I think the cases falling is a real trend.
 

isutrevman

Well-Known Member
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SuperFanatic T2
Jan 30, 2007
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Ames, IA
"Conclusion: In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak."
 
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cycloneG

Well-Known Member
Mar 7, 2007
10,572
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Off the grid
"Conclusion: In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak."
Are we trusting China now? I've lost track.
 

cycloneG

Well-Known Member
Mar 7, 2007
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Off the grid
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mp444

New Member
Nov 4, 2014
12
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That's a really weak study (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm?s_cid=mm6947e2_w). Basically their data are:
  1. The mask-mandate counties had 3 cases per 100k the week of June 1-7.
  2. The non-mask-mandate counties had 4 cases per 100k the week of June 1-7.
  3. The mask-mandate counties had 17 cases per 100k the week of July 3-9. (beginning week of mask-mandate)
  4. The non-mask-mandate counties had 6 cases per 100k the week of July 3-9. (beginning week of mask-mandate)
  5. The mask-mandate counties had 16 cases per 100k the week of August 17-23.
  6. The non-mask mandate counties had 12 cases per 100k the week of August 17-23.
The "mask mandates worked" argument is that there was a decrease of 17 to 16 vs an increase of 6 to 12. There seems to be no exploration of the (obvious) questions of "is this just regression to the mean?" and "did the non-mask-mandate counties just see a later start to a July/August spike (that was larger in the mask-mandate counties)".
 
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