Ouch. Penn State 2027 Recruiting Decline?

[Cyinthenorth]

In games we gave up 20+ points in, opponents consistently had 100+ rush yards and often more than that. That's not acceptable when your own team plays ball control, limit possessions football like we did.

KSU: 21 points, 110 rushing
COLO: 24 points, 140 rushing
ASU: 24 points, 290 rushing (We let Jeff Sims run for 200+ yards...)
CIN: 38 points, 260 rushing
BYU: 41 points, 103 rushing (outlier here, since they threw for 300+ instead)

We were 12th in the conference in Rush D per attempt, giving up 4.4/carry on the season. That's not a great job at all, that is way below average for CFB. We were right in the middle of the conference in pass yards/attempt, which I would guess was more related to just having fewer attempts put on us overall. We tended to let teams pass if they wanted to pass even at the height of our defense teams, opponents often couldn't score in the red zone instead. That was still mostly true last season from a passing perspective.

Good pull on the stats. Seems like Heacock's scheme was really played out especially the last 2 seasons. By that point, half the league was running it and everyone had seen it over the previous half decade. We were still great at keeping teams out of the end zone, but it was a very pure definition of bend but don't break defense. I'd warrant a little grace due to the injuries on that side of the ball the last 2 seasons, but I think it was also simply played out.

 

[BCClone]

Good pull on the stats. Seems like Heacock's scheme was really played out especially the last 2 seasons. By that point, half the league was running it and everyone had seen it over the previous half decade. We were still great at keeping teams out of the end zone, but it was a very pure definition of bend but don't break defense. I'd warrant a little grace due to the injuries on that side of the ball the last 2 seasons, but I think it was also simply played out.

It works well when you have a good linebacker corp. Our LBers were our weakest position group for the last several years. Not much after Vance graduated. We did well against some blocking teams but man blocking teams we struggled.

Are there still medical redshirts or are they gone? Campbell had one 6th year player he took and I wonder if the 5 for 5 may give a few of the players he took to help with culture have another year and that’s not really what Campbell wants.

 

[madguy30]

Nothing ugly about beating iowa ever in my opinion. At least not in football. The game in Kinnick 2 years ago was a thing of beauty.

Basketball wins against them can feel hollow for sure, much like the game last season.

Regardless CMC didn't do 'pretty good' against them and it's not like they were some dominant force.

 

[madguy30]

Penn State has already done that. They won two playoff games in 2024. They want more than that.

I'm thinking more beating a P5/top B1G/top SEC type of team or program.

 

[MeowingCows]

Good pull on the stats. Seems like Heacock's scheme was really played out especially the last 2 seasons. By that point, half the league was running it and everyone had seen it over the previous half decade. We were still great at keeping teams out of the end zone, but it was a very pure definition of bend but don't break defense. I'd warrant a little grace due to the injuries on that side of the ball the last 2 seasons, but I think it was also simply played out.

The callouts about the injuries are totally fair, we would've been better if we played full strength for sure. I tend to think the ceiling was still capped some at the talent level of LB and DL positions, but the piles of injuries made it much worse. I think the scheme itself is fine and can be modified to fit a lot of situations, but towards the end, we just lacked the dominating dudes it asks for up front.

It works well when you have a good linebacker corp. Our LBers were our weakest position group for the last several years. Not much after Vance graduated. We did well against some blocking teams but man blocking teams we struggled.

Are there still medical redshirts or are they gone? Campbell had one 6th year player he took and I wonder if the 5 for 5 may give a few of the players he took to help with culture have another year and that’s not really what Campbell wants.

I believe 5/5 has removed all versions of redshirts and extra awarded years, barring like military service or mission trips. Nothing that's just regular bench or injury-related anymore.

 

[Cyched]

Nothing ugly about beating iowa ever in my opinion. At least not in football. The game in Kinnick 2 years ago was a thing of beauty.

Basketball wins against them can feel hollow for sure, much like the game last season.

The best part of that last game in Iowa City was that we beat them the way they tend to beat other teams.

Go down early, but do enough to keep it in arm’s reach, then make some plays to win it.

Last year was just ugly all around. Thank god for Konrardy’s giant nutsack.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Regardless CMC didn't do 'pretty good' against them and it's not like they were some dominant force.

You have to look at the record a little deeper, when Campbell took over in 2016, he lost the first five times he faced them, EIU was ranked 3 times during that stretch when the game was played while ISU was ranked once. Since his first win in 2022, we have won 3 out of the 4 games played, beating a #21 ranked EIU team a couple of years ago. We beat them last year for the first time being ranked since 1978.
It does take a few years to bring in a new system and players, especially when you are facing a team that has had the same coach for over a quarter of a century. Outside of the first two meetings, most have been very combative, but it just seemed like we were always the team that made the critical turnover which cost us the game. How many years there in a row did EIU go without turning it over, quite a few.

 

[madguy30]

You have to look at the record a little deeper, when Campbell took over in 2016, he lost the first five times he faced them, EIU was ranked 3 times during that stretch when the game was played while ISU was ranked once. Since his first win in 2022, we have won 3 out of the 4 games played, beating a #21 ranked EIU team a couple of years ago. We beat them last year for the first time being ranked since 1978.
It does take a few years to bring in a new system and players, especially when you are facing a team that has had the same coach for over a quarter of a century. Outside of the first two meetings, most have been very combative, but it just seemed like we were always the team that made the critical turnover which cost us the game. How many years there in a row did EIU go without turning it over, quite a few.

ISU was beating Top Ten teams in his 2nd season and made that at least some what of an expectation, not the rare exception so the 'it takes a few years' deal doesn't really fit.

Iowa was good during the stretch, but not great and ISU generally flailed around in the game and finally stumbled on three Cyhawk wins.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

ISU was beating Top Ten teams in his 2nd season and made that at least some what of an expectation, not the rare exception so the 'it takes a few years' deal doesn't really fit.

Iowa was good during the stretch, but not great and ISU generally flailed around in the game and finally stumbled on three Cyhawk wins.

It came down to turnovers, and they were going through that stretch of about 5 years with zero TOs. It was frustrating, as I felt a couple of those years we were the better team, but our turnovers killed us.
That entire series has been a game of streaks, ISU is on one now, the thing about EIU is you know who they are, and what they like to do, the question is can you match it. Free Rents has been very good at keeping the game close and then waiting for you to make a mistake and then capitalizing on it. When he talks about "winning in the margins" he means it, not just says it. Look at their special teams vs ours over the past 8 years.

 

[madguy30]

It came down to turnovers, and they were going through that stretch of about 5 years with zero TOs. It was frustrating, as I felt a couple of those years we were the better team, but our turnovers killed us.
That entire series has been a game of streaks, ISU is on one now, the thing about EIU is you know who they are, and what they like to do, the question is can you match it. Free Rents has been very good at keeping the game close and then waiting for you to make a mistake and then capitalizing on it. When he talks about "winning in the margins" he means it, not just says it. Look at their special teams vs ours over the past 8 years.

Yes all true but 3-6 is not good or pretty good...might be different if it were a program like OU or Texas in their primes but that's not what Iowa was in the CMC era.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Yes all true but 3-6 is not good or pretty good...might be different if it were a program like OU or Texas in their primes but that's not what Iowa was in the CMC era.

His record vs EIU is about par for what the history of the games between the two schools have always been, about a 1 to 2 ratio wins to losses. We also forget that programs like Texas bottom out a few years ago when we were beating them.

 

[washedup82]

It came down to turnovers, and they were going through that stretch of about 5 years with zero TOs. It was frustrating, as I felt a couple of those years we were the better team, but our turnovers killed us.
That entire series has been a game of streaks, ISU is on one now, the thing about EIU is you know who they are, and what they like to do, the question is can you match it. Free Rents has been very good at keeping the game close and then waiting for you to make a mistake and then capitalizing on it. When he talks about "winning in the margins" he means it, not just says it. Look at their special teams vs ours over the past 8 years.

My only disagreement is your comment regarding turnovers. When we are committing turnovers but they aren't, we are not the better team.

 

[Frak]

This reads a lot like Tyrese Hunter doing the Horns Up in front of Johnny Orr

I do remember Cooper having a tit for tat on Twitter with some ISU fans after they started chirping him. After that, I don’t recall any player saying anything negative about ISU

lol, I don’t tweet at players, but I made an exception there.

 

[Kinch]

Yes all true but 3-6 is not good or pretty good...might be different if it were a program like OU or Texas in their primes but that's not what Iowa was in the CMC era.

If he didn’t have Konrady that record is 1-8 and cmc does not go to Penn State.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

My only disagreement is your comment regarding turnovers. When we are committing turnovers but they aren't, we are not the better team.

You are always going to have a turnover or two, the last 3 years, the numbers have been about equal, but look at 2021, we had 4 TOs to their zero and lost 27 to 17, didn't play in 2020 because of Covid, but in 2019 we had 2 TO to there zero and lost 18 to 17, in 2018 loss by 10 lost turnover battle 0 to 1.

Getting turnovers can allow less talented teams to win games, not getting them and then turning it over yourself allows better teams to lose games they shouldn't. You also have to remember that EIU prides itself on not turning the ball over and beating yourself, just like ISU went a stretch of a season or two where our RB's did not have a fumble. Long way of saying turnover can have a huge influence on a game, but says little about which team has the better talent.

 

[Frak]

In games we gave up 20+ points in, opponents consistently had 100+ rush yards and often more than that. That's not acceptable when your own team plays ball control, limit possessions football like we did.

KSU: 21 points, 110 rushing
COLO: 24 points, 140 rushing
ASU: 24 points, 290 rushing (We let Jeff Sims run for 200+ yards...)
CIN: 38 points, 260 rushing
BYU: 41 points, 103 rushing (outlier here, since they threw for 300+ instead)

We were 12th in the conference in Rush D per attempt, giving up 4.4/carry on the season. That's not a great job at all, that is way below average for CFB. We were right in the middle of the conference in pass yards/attempt, which I would guess was more related to just having fewer attempts put on us overall. We tended to let teams pass if they wanted to pass even at the height of our defense teams, opponents often couldn't score in the red zone instead. That was still mostly true last season from a passing perspective.

The CU game was bad, but the ASU game was almost worst. Sims QB Power every single play and we had no clue how to stop it. I suppose if we had our starting CBs, we put them on an island and load the box. But that was also another damning part of the season. Up 2 scores late on Arizona and we still have our starters in only to watch them drop like flies to season-ending injuries.

Campbell is a good culture coach and a good evaluator of talent, but no amount of talent will prevent him from doing stupid things from time to time that cost him wins. Just sheer stubbornness and stupidity. I'm actively rooting against him although he will have a good year with that schedule. I'd guess down the line after all the ISU players have cycled through, it will be more like Fred at Nebraska where I don't really care if he wins or loses other than when they play iowa. I do think that no matter what, he's not going to recruit at a high enough level to consistently beat tOSU, Mich, Oregon.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

If you're out looking for the perfect coach, you're going to be looking for a long, long time.

Matt Campbell did about as well as anyone can do at Iowa State considering resources, geography, recruiting territory, history and a host of other factors.

 

[washedup82]

You are always going to have a turnover or two, the last 3 years, the numbers have been about equal, but look at 2021, we had 4 TOs to their zero and lost 27 to 17, didn't play in 2020 because of Covid, but in 2019 we had 2 TO to there zero and lost 18 to 17, in 2018 loss by 10 lost turnover battle 0 to 1.

Getting turnovers can allow less talented teams to win games, not getting them and then turning it over yourself allows better teams to lose games they shouldn't. You also have to remember that EIU prides itself on not turning the ball over and beating yourself, just like ISU went a stretch of a season or two where our RB's did not have a fumble. Long way of saying turnover can have a huge influence on a game, but says little about which team has the better talent.

The most talented team is not necessarily the best team. Taking care of the football is a sign of discipline and attention to detail, both trademarks of good teams. The vast majority of the time in football, the better team wins.

 

[nfrine]

Post March Madness, work rules til fb season. Completely out of Cyclone touch.
Will Rocco play/start for PS?

Yes, but only If CMC is still the head coach on opening day...