I'm a fan of Doug. Wouldn't be an analyst without having some strong opinions. He's been wrong before, and he'll be wrong again. They all will be.
Get 4th in the conference, and we'll have a good shot. Get 5th? We'll be outside looking in based on our non-conf.
Finally, when your on the bubble, getting in or being left out has as much to do with what happens in the low and mid-major conference tourneys. If someone besides Murray State wins the Ohio Valley, that takes a bid away from a high major team. If that scenario happens a couple times - maybe Pitt wins the Big East... more .500 in-conf teams get left out.
Get 4th in the conference, and we'll have a good shot. Get 5th? We'll be outside looking in based on our non-conf.
Finally, when your on the bubble, getting in or being left out has as much to do with what happens in the low and mid-major conference tourneys. If someone besides Murray State wins the Ohio Valley, that takes a bid away from a high major team. If that scenario happens a couple times - maybe Pitt wins the Big East... more .500 in-conf teams get left out.