Bubble Watch

[DSM4Cy]

Two more crappy wins? They have 11th place (tied for) Penn State at home (14-16 overall). If they tie Michigan (assuming both win), I think they get the 7 seed and play the 10 seed Ohio State (right now) who is 17-13 overall but on no one's bubble list. Those two aren't doing it. The next game would probably be Wisconsin or Minnesota, so I suppose that one might hold some weight. So I'm setting it at 3 wins minimum for a realistic shot at being in a real conversation about it, and 4 wins to be somewhat likely. Again, not out of the question in that conference where the bad teams are bad and the good teams are questionable.

Iowa doesn't need more quality wins compared to a lot of bubble teams. They need quantity ones now, although quality wouldn't hurt. They have 5 wins over likely power conference tourney teams, which is 5 more than Houston or Georgia, 4 more than Cal or Rhode Island, 3 more than Wake Forest or USC. At 19-14 (10-8), they'll be right in the conversation.

They didn't draw the easiest league schedule (5th in conference SOS). Maryland, Purdue, and Wisconsin all are 10th hardest or worse. I certainly won't be hurt if they are left out, but they will have a case to make if they go 2-1. Who else is out there for the bids? B1G isn't that good, and the committee knows it (Top 16 seeding), but it's still the 4th-best RPI league. Lots of mediocrity this year only helps the Hawks.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Iowa doesn't need more quality wins compared to a lot of bubble teams. They need quantity ones now, although quality wouldn't hurt. They have 5 wins over likely power conference tourney teams, which is 5 more than Houston or Georgia, 4 more than Cal or Rhode Island, 3 more than Wake Forest or USC. At 19-14 (10-8), they'll be right in the conversation.

They didn't draw the easiest league schedule (5th in conference SOS). Maryland, Purdue, and Wisconsin all are 10th hardest or worse. I certainly won't be hurt if they are left out, but they will have a case to make if they go 2-1. Who else is out there for the bids? B1G isn't that good, and the committee knows it (Top 16 seeding), but it's still the 4th-best RPI league. Lots of mediocrity this year only helps the Hawks.

I heard on the radio yesterday or the day before that Iowa's in-conference strength of schedule was 11th toughest

 

[DSM4Cy]

I heard on the radio yesterday or the day before that Iowa's in-conference strength of schedule was 11th toughest

I'm just going off the NCAA official team sheets, which say it's 5.

They got Purdue and Maryland twice (also Rutgers, Illinois, Nebraska).
Michigan State, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Minnesota once, but all on the road.

 

[MeanDean]

We're the third 8 seed and Northwestern is ahead of us on that lone bracket that has us at an 8. Lolz

https://tdbrackets.wordpress.com/

Solid Bracket - includes "Mid Teen St"

 

[Clones8686]

Geez, is this the Iowa thread now? It's pretty simple, if they get to 19-14 they are right on the edge, 20-14, they're in. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost to Penn State though and all of this talk was for nothing.

 

[DSM4Cy]

Geez, is this the Iowa thread now? It's pretty simple, if they get to 19-14 they are right on the edge, 20-14, they're in. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost to Penn State though and all of this talk was for nothing.

Totally with you. Would be a total Fran move to lose to PSU. I'm also ready to move on from discussing the Hawks.

 

[bosco]

Totally with you. Would be a total Fran move to lose to PSU. I'm also ready to move on from discussing the Hawks.

So do I root for Penn State or Iowa? I feel dirty either way.

 

[Tailg8er]

So do I root for Penn State or Iowa? I feel dirty either way.

Why would you root for Iowa? Them losing won't hurt our RPI enough to matter. **** Iowa.

 

[bosco]

Why would you root for Iowa? Them losing won't hurt our RPI enough to matter. **** Iowa.

It's decided then. I feel so dirty, oh so dirty.

 

[allfourcy]

For me it has more to do with the conference, than the Hawks. I mean, the selection committee pretty much indicated its weakness by not having any of their teams in the top 16 a couple weeks back. (Heck, that was even before Wisc started imploding) But now, just cuz the bubble is soft, they think they can get 8 or 9 teams in? Sorry, that just isn't right. Why even have all the metrics, RPI, etc., if going 10-8 in an unbalanced league that is 'down' is all it takes?

 

[cyclones500]

Who's the 5th SEC team? UK, Florida, SC, Arkansas are in. Vandy with 15 losses? Georgia with no quality wins?

A clarification about what I said: I'm not sure SEC's 5th-best deserves a bid, but I think SEC gets a 5th team in.

 

[cyclones500]

March 4 bubble-stuff.

Huge opportunity for helpful win: Vanderbilt (vs. Florida); Marquette (vs. Creighton).
Stay-afloat opportunity: Georgia (at Arkansas); Wake Forest at Virginia Tech.
Lose and you’re in trouble (or possibly out): Kansas State (vs. TT); California (at Colorado); Xavier (at DePaul); Rhode Island (vs. Davidson).
Loss could lead to danger-zone: VCU (vs. George Mason).
De-facto play-in/play-out game: Georgia Tech at Syracuse.

 

[ameslurker]

This is the weekend when everyone paying attention slowly puts down what they're doing and leans toward the TV to pay slightly more attention as to what's going on. The bubble is soft this year which makes getting in that much more intriguing but I hope it doesn't make the tournament suffer in terms of excitement.

 

[helechopper]

The games are going to be great because they're always great, even if crappy BIG and SEC teams are in it. When those lights turn on, so does the intensity and focus.

 

[Cyclonepride]

The games are going to be great because they're always great, even if crappy BIG and SEC teams are in it. When those lights turn on, so does the intensity and focus.

Agree. My favorite sporting event every year and it's not even close.

 

[cyclones500]

The bubble is soft this year which makes getting in that much more intriguing but I hope it doesn't make the tournament suffer in terms of excitement.

If you like to see less-visible teams pull some stunners in early rounds, hope that favorites prevail in some of the mid-major range, such as Middle Tennessee, UT-Arlington, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Monmouth and Vermont, as examples. It's possible only a couple of those could get at-large bids, and if some don't get in, it could be a glut of power-conference middle-feeders in 11-12-13 seed slots. They'd deserve the invites, but it'd mean less intrigue.

 

[cyclones500]

Illinois shot itself in the proverbial foot ... lost at Rutgers.

 

[DSM4Cy]

So...Vandy. In or out? How many games do they have to win in Nashville? Potential first 15-loss at-large ever.

 

[jsb]

So...Vandy. In or out? How many games do they have to win in Nashville? Potential first 15-loss at-large ever.

Andy Katz thinks they are in no matter what.

 

[CyForPresident]

Mt. Saint Mary's won and is in the NEC championship game. Could be a solid resume boost for ISU and good for Naz's brother