Bubble Watch

Stewo

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I'm not saying Illinois State doesn't deserve a bid, but prepare to be shocked. Iowa will likely be in if they beat Indiana and Wisconsin.

Most likely. The problem is that Fran is 2-6 in the Big Ten tournament. He'd have to double his win total from the last 6 seasons. That's a big ask.
 
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istater7

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Illinois State looked awful yesterday. I'd be kind of surprised if they make it.
 

AuH2O

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I think Illinois State should get in, I think they will be left out. Alot of bubble sites have them in the NIT after yesterday. Their RPI is good but I also read they have 1 top 100 win the entire season. Palm was saying yesterday the least amount of Top-100 wins to ever get an at-large is 4.

I think if Iowa wins 2 games in the BTT they are in. They have enough good wins to offset 14 losses compared to other bubble teams.
This will be a good year to test what metrics the committee is shifting to. I get Palms point, but this year there will likely be multiple teams setting or matching previous bars for poor resumes getting intothe field.Syracuse is going to end up with a poor RPI, Iowa is going to have probably the worst RPI and KenPom combined ranking if they get in. If nothing else, the Illinois St vs Syracuse and Iowa comparison will answer how much more important getting good wins are vs avoiding bad losses.
 

Gunnerclone

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This will be a good year to test what metrics the committee is shifting to. I get Palms point, but this year there will likely be multiple teams setting or matching previous bars for poor resumes getting intothe field.Syracuse is going to end up with a poor RPI, Iowa is going to have probably the worst RPI and KenPom combined ranking if they get in. If nothing else, the Illinois St vs Syracuse and Iowa comparison will answer how much more important getting good wins are vs avoiding bad losses.

Iowa isn't even on Palm's bubble watch at this point.
 

AuH2O

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Most likely. The problem is that Fran is 2-6 in the Big Ten tournament. He'd have to double his win total from the last 6 seasons. That's a big ask.
Wisconsin is in free fall and Indiana has absolutely quit. I highly suggest every ISU fan watch this Indiana team play. If you didn't already feel lucky to have the group of players we have, you will after you watch that mess of a "team".
 

jkclone

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I wouldn't be shocked if they do. But the MVC might still have enough cache to be a 2 bid league.
I think people are overrating how good the MVC is this year. Illinois State on its face may deserve a bid but the rest of the league is really bad.
 

cyhiphopp

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I think people are overrating how good the MVC is this year. Illinois State on its face may deserve a bid but the rest of the league is really bad.

Yeah, I'm just thinking their prior reputation might earn them 2 bids. We'll see though.
 

allfourcy

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If Iowa gets enough quality wins in the Big10 tournament, seems they'll get in. I'll concede that they are playing like a tourney team. What's aggravating to me, tho, is that would mean 8 teams out of the big10 will get in. What? So a conference that has been considered 'down' with lower RPI compared to other Power 5 conferences by most gurus is going to get 8 teams in? that's bull.
 
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kingcy

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If Iowa gets enough quality wins in the Big10 tournament, seems they'll get in. I'll concede that they are playing like a tourney team. What's aggravating to me, tho, is that would mean 8 teams out of the big10 will get in. What? So a conference that has been considered 'down' with lower RPI compared to other Power 5 conferences by most gurus is going to get 8 teams in? that's bull.

Are there good wins to be had in the Big 10 tourney? Indiana is playing like crap, Wisc is struggling of late. Its not like that conference is on fire right now. The only reason those would be quality wins is because of the names on the front of the jerseys. The Big 12 has 5 high level teams that have a good shot at their conference tittle. How many does the Big 10 have?
 

peteypie

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Are there good wins to be had in the Big 10 tourney? Indiana is playing like crap, Wisc is struggling of late. Its not like that conference is on fire right now. The only reason those would be quality wins is because of the names on the front of the jerseys. The Big 12 has 5 high level teams that have a good shot at their conference tittle. How many does the Big 10 have?
14, because they are all crap
 

allfourcy

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12. Rutgers gets a -2 for being so bad.

But....but....Rutgers beat Illinois! Who beat Iowa twice. so there's that.
Seriously tho, if Iowa steals a bid by doing well in the tournament, they need to steal a bid from another big10 team, NOT another league's team who is a 'should be in'. Their RPI, BPI numbers don't even compare to an Xavier, Rhode Island, Providence, etc. so if they steal a bid, take Michigan State out. (Ha- like that would happen.. Izzo's interview after that would be priceless tho)
 

NoCreativity

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But....but....Rutgers beat Illinois! Who beat Iowa twice. so there's that.
Seriously tho, if Iowa steals a bid by doing well in the tournament, they need to steal a bid from another big10 team, NOT another league's team who is a 'should be in'. Their RPI, BPI numbers don't even compare to an Xavier, Rhode Island, Providence, etc. so if they steal a bid, take Michigan State out. (Ha- like that would happen.. Izzo's interview after that would be priceless tho)

First point, bid stealers are traditionally teams that have no shot at an at-large bid that come out of nowhere to win a conference tournament. For example, if UCONN or Memphis won the AAC tournament, that would most certainly knock a bubble team out since SMU and Cincy are locks. Teams that are already on the bubble arent bid stealers.

The committe is going to look at the all the teams considered and wont take conference affiliation into account. For example, just because Iowa gets in doesnt mean they would take away another Big 10's slot.

The last point, Iowa may have a lower BPI than teams like Rhode Island and Xavier but if you actually compare them Iowa has as many Top 50 wins as both of those schools combined. What is hurting Iowa is those sub-300 wins that bring down their RPI.
 

brianhos

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If Iowa gets enough quality wins in the Big10 tournament, seems they'll get in. I'll concede that they are playing like a tourney team. What's aggravating to me, tho, is that would mean 8 teams out of the big10 will get in. What? So a conference that has been considered 'down' with lower RPI compared to other Power 5 conferences by most gurus is going to get 8 teams in? that's bull.

But their competition recently has been sooooooo bad. I do think Iowa gets in, Indiana has quit, Iowa should roll them. That probably puts them in.
 

Gunnerclone

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But their competition recently has been sooooooo bad. I do think Iowa gets in, Indiana has quit, Iowa should roll them. That probably puts them in.

Iowa still hasn't even cracked Palm's "probably out" section of the Bubble Watch.
 

Doc

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Wisconsin is in free fall and Indiana has absolutely quit. I highly suggest every ISU fan watch this Indiana team play. If you didn't already feel lucky to have the group of players we have, you will after you watch that mess of a "team".

For IU, a lot of it was losing Anunoby to injury. The guy is a stud.