Bubble Watch

[cyclones500]

So...Vandy. In or out? How many games do they have to win in Nashville? Potential first 15-loss at-large ever.

Vandy may not have punched its ticket officially with the Florida win, but it's on the good side of the bubble, despite the icky overall record. Top-50 RPI (for now), 5-7 vs. top 50, five top-30 wins, sweep of Florida, top-5 SOS in both non-conference and conference. Awful sub-200 loss to Missouri and only 5-6 vs. 51-100, but that's still 10-13 top-100, the overall resume stacks up to just about anyone on the true bubble.

 

[cyclones500]

Syracuse is crushing Georgia Tech. Syracuse might set a record for worst RPI to get an at-large. GT has to be toast at this point for at-large, regardless of ACC tournament (unless they somehow won a couple biggies, such as Virginia & then Notre Dame ... even then — see the "worst-RPI" note above).

 

[clonedude]

Would be awesome if Vandy knocks out Iowa!

 

[cyclones500]

California doing its damndest to play its way out Lost at Colorado. Only Cal's second sub-100 loss, but if you look at the top end of the resume, there isn't much "there" there.

 

[DSM4Cy]

California doing its damndest to play its way out Lost at Colorado. Only Cal's second sub-100 loss, but if you look at the top end of the resume, there isn't much "there" there.

I think they have to win at least 2 in the Pac-12 tourney. Not sure of seeding there, but they need quality wins much more than quantity. Must beat USC or one of the top dogs to even have a chance. I'm with Lunardi that they aren't even ''First Four Out" right now.

 

[DSM4Cy]

Syracuse is crushing Georgia Tech. Syracuse might set a record for worst RPI to get an at-large. GT has to be toast at this point for at-large, regardless of ACC tournament (unless they somehow won a couple biggies, such as Virginia & then Notre Dame ... even then — see the "worst-RPI" note above).

I don't have a huge problem with Syracuse when you compare them to other choices. They have 3 big wins, although they were all at home. Problem is, a bunch of the other bubble teams have 0-1 Top 25 wins. Of their bad losses, only 2 were at home (Georgetown and St. John's).

The standard has always been no more than 4 losses outside the Top 100. They have 3 with Georgetown hanging on at #99. It's looking like they won't have a chance for another bad loss based on their ACC tournament seed. They are still a big ?, but if we're talking about a 15-loss Vanderbilt, Iowa, Illinois, Houston on the bubble, Syracuse has to feel pretty good.

 

[DSM4Cy]

Syracuse is crushing Georgia Tech. Syracuse might set a record for worst RPI to get an at-large. GT has to be toast at this point for at-large, regardless of ACC tournament (unless they somehow won a couple biggies, such as Virginia & then Notre Dame ... even then — see the "worst-RPI" note above).

And yes, GT is out. Only 16 wins against D-1 opponents - doesn't matter how many good wins you have. Indiana even has one more Top 100 win than GT, and we aren't talking about them anymore.

 

[cyclones500]

Wake Forest got another top-50 win, on road at VT. Probably in for the moment.

Marquette did itself a favor beating Creighton. Also indirectly benefited with wins by Vanderbilt (which it beat, neutral) and Providence (which may be safely in now, and MU swept Friars).

 

[cyclones500]

Oh, also, Seton Hall safe now, huge win at Butler.

 

[Cy$]

Vandy probably needs to win 1-2 more in the SEC tourney to get in

 

[NoCreativity]

Vandy probably needs to win 1-2 more in the SEC tourney to get in

I have no clue whey Vandy is even on the bubble. They played a tough non-conf schedule but they didnt beat absolutely anybody except us on their home floor. I dont care what your SOS is, if you cant win games it doesnt matter.

They are also 10-8 in a scrub conference, will end up with 15 losses overall, including to teams like Missouri. They should be in the NIT.

 

[CyTwins]

I have no clue whey Vandy is even on the bubble. They played a tough non-conf schedule but they didnt beat absolutely anybody except us on their home floor. I dont care what your SOS is, if you cant win games it doesnt matter.

They are also 10-8 in a scrub conference, will end up with 15 losses overall, including to teams like Missouri. They should be in the NIT.

#44 in RPI

 

[cyhiphopp]

I have no clue whey Vandy is even on the bubble. They played a tough non-conf schedule but they didnt beat absolutely anybody except us on their home floor. I dont care what your SOS is, if you cant win games it doesnt matter.

They are also 10-8 in a scrub conference, will end up with 15 losses overall, including to teams like Missouri. They should be in the NIT.

I think the bubble is considered pretty soft this year. A lot of Mid Major leagues aren't expected to have more than their standard number of bids and such, so high major conference teams are more likely to get in with less than stellar resumes. Like the MVC will only get 2 teams in this year with WSU beating Ill State in the final.

It will all change when someone upsets the favorite in a small conference tourney, but as of right now, it's soft.

 

[NoCreativity]

I think the bubble is considered pretty soft this year. A lot of Mid Major leagues aren't expected to have more than their standard number of bids and such, so high major conference teams are more likely to get in with less than stellar resumes. Like the MVC will only get 2 teams in this year with WSU beating Ill State in the final.

It will all change when someone upsets the favorite in a small conference tourney, but as of right now, it's soft.

I'm not so sure the committee wont leave out Illinois State. They looked awful yesterday and I could see them getting left out over some 9th place team from a power-5 conference that has 14 or 15 losses.

 

[cyhiphopp]

I'm not so sure the committee wont leave out Illinois State. They looked awful yesterday and I could see them getting left out over some 9th place team from a power-5 conference that has 14 or 15 losses.

I wouldn't be shocked if they do. But the MVC might still have enough cache to be a 2 bid league.

 

[AuH2O]

I'm not so sure the committee wont leave out Illinois State. They looked awful yesterday and I could see them getting left out over some 9th place team from a power-5 conference that has 14 or 15 losses.

I would be shocked if Illinois State gets left out. 30 RPI and I think in the 40s in Kenpom.
In the case of Syracuse or Iowa, a new precedent for RPI is only going to happen of other metrics suggest RPI is an outlier. Syracuse is 44 in Kenpom, so you could make the case. I think Iowa is 72 RPI after PSU, 65 in Kenpom and 77 in the ESpN BPI composite. I don't see an at large path for Iowa. Wins against Indiana and Wisconsin with a loss to Purdue or The Gophers isn't going to lead to enough of a jump in any of these.

 

[NoCreativity]

I would be shocked if Illinois State gets left out. 30 RPI and I think in the 40s in Kenpom.
In the case of Syracuse or Iowa, a new precedent for RPI is only going to happen of other metrics suggest RPI is an outlier. Syracuse is 44 in Kenpom, so you could make the case. I think Iowa is 72 RPI after PSU, 65 in Kenpom and 77 in the ESpN BPI composite. I don't see an at large path for Iowa. Wins against Indiana and Wisconsin with a loss to Purdue or The Gophers isn't going to lead to enough of a jump in any of these.

I think Illinois State should get in, I think they will be left out. Alot of bubble sites have them in the NIT after yesterday. Their RPI is good but I also read they have 1 top 100 win the entire season. Palm was saying yesterday the least amount of Top-100 wins to ever get an at-large is 4.

I think if Iowa wins 2 games in the BTT they are in. They have enough good wins to offset 14 losses compared to other bubble teams.

 

[Cyballzz]

I have no clue whey Vandy is even on the bubble. They played a tough non-conf schedule but they didnt beat absolutely anybody except us on their home floor. I dont care what your SOS is, if you cant win games it doesnt matter.

They are also 10-8 in a scrub conference, will end up with 15 losses overall, including to teams like Missouri. They should be in the NIT.

Vanderbilt swept Florida, won at Arkansas and at home against South Carolina.

 

[MartinCy]

I would be shocked if Illinois State gets left out. 30 RPI and I think in the 40s in Kenpom.
In the case of Syracuse or Iowa, a new precedent for RPI is only going to happen of other metrics suggest RPI is an outlier. Syracuse is 44 in Kenpom, so you could make the case. I think Iowa is 72 RPI after PSU, 65 in Kenpom and 77 in the ESpN BPI composite. I don't see an at large path for Iowa. Wins against Indiana and Wisconsin with a loss to Purdue or The Gophers isn't going to lead to enough of a jump in any of these.

I'm not saying Illinois State doesn't deserve a bid, but prepare to be shocked. Iowa will likely be in if they beat Indiana and Wisconsin.

 

[cyhiphopp]

I'm not saying Illinois State doesn't deserve a bid, but prepare to be shocked. Iowa will likely be in if they beat Indiana and Wisconsin.

On Wisconsin, I guess.