It all depends on the assumptions one makes.
You are working on the assumption that (1) Brackins would go late first round or second round, and (2) that he would be a lottery pick if he stayed another year. If your assumptions are indulged then I think most people would agree with you that Brackins should stay another year.
But, these are not air tight assumptions. If I were Brackins I would probably declare but not get an agent so as to test my draft stock. If he would be a lottery pick this year then he should go. The assumption that his stock would go up with another year in college is also not obviously true. As many people have pointed out in other threads, the NBA tends to draft on potential, and Brackins is showing a lot of potential. If his progress from this year to next is not significant then his stock could go down even if he becomes a slightly better player. One freak injury could also destroy his stock. It's also not like a player stops improving as soon as they leave college.
I suspect that your assumptions are correct, as most mock drafts still don't project him as a lottery pick as far as I can tell. I also think he would get a lot more spotlight and pre-season hype if he returned next year. But, I certainly wouldn't lose respect for Brackins if he evaluated his situation differently. He is in a better possition than any of us to do so.
I get what you're saying on most of this. I will also say the NBA will eat you alive if you aren't ready. Before this year, we didn't even know if Brackins could be consistent for 30 games or so. Do you think he could be for 82 games?
Also, he'll be going against top quality night in and night out even if he plays. If he isn't ready, he'll sit on the bench for a majority of the games. I think a player improves by playing in game environments as opposed to getting limited minutes (if any) against top talent.
You should see how many guys who get drafted late 1st and/or early 2nd round that do not make it at all.
The NBA isn't like the NFL where guys get drafted whereever and work their way up. The NBA wants it NOW otherwise you're playing overseas. If that's your ultimate fate, then better off making $2 mil for a few years than $500k for a few years. Also, if you're a $2 mil guy, they will give you more opportunities than a $500k guy.
I just have confidence that if Craig can work on his outside shot where he can hit it more consistently and get bulk up a little so he doesn't get pushed around by all Big 12 (or lower) talent. If he's getting pushed around in NCAA what do you think will happen against all-NBA talent?
I think he could have a good pro career if he worked on his game. Look at Blake Griffin. He could've gone last year, but his improvements this year earned him more $$ and a higher pick for next year.
With Beasley, it was clear that he needed a lot of work on his game as well, but since you aren't going to do better than 2nd pick and $4 million I can see why he would leave.
The truth is Craig could get in a better position next year if he improved without a doubt. You don't play thinking about getting injured anyways. If he was smart, he'd have an insurance policy on his body in case he did get injured in college.
