Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[Dale]

I did this last year, and we're finally far enough into the season that I think it makes sense running the scenarios again.

Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Texas: 77.5% (56.6% 1st, 20.9% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 59.2% (21.4% 1st, 37.9% 2nd)
West Virginia: 32.6% (14.1% 1st, 18.5% 2nd)
TCU: 15.7% (3.7% 1st, 12.0% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 6.2% (1.6% 1st, 4.6% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 5.3% (1.7% 1st, 3.6% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 3.1% (0.9% 1st, 2.2% 2nd)
Baylor: 0.3% (0.1% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Kansas and KSU: zippo

And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 1% chance of happening:

Oklahoma/Texas: 42.0%
Texas/West Virginia: 19.2%
TCU/Texas: 10.6%
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 9.3%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 3.1%
Oklahoma/TCU: 2.7%
Texas/Texas Tech: 2.4%
Iowa St./Texas: 1.6%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 1.6%
TCU/West Virginia: 1.6%
Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 1.3%
Texas Tech/West Virginia: 1.2%

(Slight boring caveat: The program only goes through the first two tiebreakers, since the third tiebreaker involves points and would be a pain in the butt to model. That said, the first two tiebreakers -- and situations with no tiebreaker necessary -- covered 98.8% of the simulations, so the odds wouldn’t change much.)

As you might imagine, Iowa State's Championship Game odds go down the toilet if they lose to West Virginia. The odds if Iowa State wins (ignoring the other games that week):

Iowa St.: 12.0% (3.2% 1st, 8.8% 2nd)

And if the Cyclones lose:

Iowa St.: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.6% 2nd)

And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record (assuming that game 12 is a gimme):

3-9: 0.0%
4-8: 1.0%
5-7: 7.0%
6-6: 23.6%
7-5: 36.9%
8-4: 25.5%
9-3: 6.0%

Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do.

 

[LindenCy]

/Insert obligatory Dumb and Dumber gif/

 

[3TrueFans]

Rounded up that 6.2% is basically 100%, we in this *****!

 

[FerShizzle]

/Insert obligatory Dumb and Dumber gif/

 

[KCClone1]

 

[SimpsonClone]

/Insert obligatory Dumb and Dumber gif/

I got you.

 

[TykeClone]

Rounded up that 6.2% is basically 100%, we in this *****!

I'll have 2 of what the gentleman on the floor was having.

 

[dualthreat]

I read that as we have a really high probability that we only lose one or two games the rest of the season. I'd sign up for that

 

[CyForPresident]

A 93% chance to make a bowl? Wow that seems high

 

[TykeClone]

A 93% chance to make a bowl? Wow that seems high

#WinInTheDark

Gotta believe!

 

[besserheimerphat]

A 93% chance to make a bowl? Wow that seems high

Baylor, Kansas and KSU are really pretty bad, plus Incarnate Word gives us 6 wins with pretty high certainty. Just looking at the odds, we probably lose to WVU and split Texas/Tech. Maybe get 2 of the 3. Most likely end up with 7 wins, or an outside shot at 8.

 

[StLouisClone]

A 93% chance to make a bowl? Wow that seems high

92% chance. Clearly the computer was impressed with Purdy's performance.

 

[Dale]

A 93% chance to make a bowl? Wow that seems high

Part of that is that Massey's ratings are pretty high on Iowa State -- they're ranked 29th in his system.

The rest is that, yeah, KU/KSU/Baylor are pretty bad. Each of those games Massey has Iowa State with an 80+% of winning. ISU/Incarnate Word isn't on Massey's schedule yet, but looking at games between similarly ranked teams Iowa State's chance of victory is conservatively 99%.

 

[besserheimerphat]

Part of that is that Massey's ratings are pretty high on Iowa State -- they're ranked 29th in his system.

The rest is that, yeah, KU/KSU/Baylor are pretty bad. Each of those games Massey has Iowa State with an 80+% of winning. ISU/Incarnate Word isn't on Massey's schedule yet, but looking at games between similarly ranked teams Iowa State's chance of victory is conservatively 99%.

Does Massey cover games between FBS/FCS schools? The analytics guys seem split - some do and some don't.

 

[Isu4meandyou]

Part of that is that Massey's ratings are pretty high on Iowa State -- they're ranked 29th in his system.

The rest is that, yeah, KU/KSU/Baylor are pretty bad. Each of those games Massey has Iowa State with an 80+% of winning. ISU/Incarnate Word isn't on Massey's schedule yet, but looking at games between similarly ranked teams Iowa State's chance of victory is conservatively 99%.

Sorry to be that guy, but I don't think we're going to beat IW . Because we're not going to be playing them, now pass me some more Kool-Aid.

 

[Dale]

Does Massey cover games between FBS/FCS schools? The analytics guys seem split - some do and some don't.

He does. I assume the only reason ISU/IW isn't on there is because of the late add.

 

[BCClone]

So if the highest probability happens, Texas and OU, OU could get revenge with a different DC.

I will say, if there is any chance a team from the big XII can get in the playoffs, I want them to win the championship game (assuming ISU doesn't make it of course). It just pulls everyone up a notch and gives us more money.

 

[Al_4_State]

A 93% chance to make a bowl? Wow that seems high

We only have to beat Baylor, Incarnate Word, Kansas, and Kansas State to make a bowl.

A loss to any of those teams seems unlikely, and would be cause for complete **** flipping. Taking the curse of Snyder out of the equation, which probabilities do, there is no objective reason to pick KSU over ISU at this stage in the game.

That also doesn't include what should really be a win vs. TTU.

 

[erikbj]

Too bad that TCU game slipped away. Defense almost won that game alone.

 

[DeereClone]

Wasn't there a website last year that was similar to this but you could pick winners of the remaining games and it would come up with scenarios for the championship game? Anyone remember that or have a link to it? It seemed similar to mred's Big 12 Tourney bracket generator.