My understanding, and I could be wrong, but I think I heard it explanined that the portal closing on April 22nd is the window for players to declare transfer intent. I don't think you have to have a school picked by the 22nd.
2025 Transfer Options
- Thread starter alexssdean12
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Cyclonepride
Thought Police
There are going to be a whole lot of kids scrambling when this game of musical chairs comes to a stop. That's when you can get good value
They had to replace their entire roster and spent a lot on Stirtz. Also those numbers aren’t accurate. They’re based on perceived value of individual players.
That number seams high, unless Stirtz is worth $5M(analytically).
I would guess its the other 4 Drake guys that skew the numbers. They were probably all valued at between $500k and $1m in the model which is essentially the floor for guys with mid major experience and any production. Then Stirtz and Hausen combined probably account for $3m to $4m in the model.
I'm going out on a limb here, but this guy probably doesn't know anything
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
He's an analytics guy, so that's what his computer probably pooped out
Totally BS !! Those are NOT actual values. Because,….. no one knows…. And the suckeyes didn’t pay 6.6 million for that collection of nobodies.
There’s a subtle allusion to just that.
His whole site is basically about moneyball.
There are acquisitions that will pay out much more than their costs. We’re banking on that, given we’re spending most of our money just retaining guys
His model is high on the ones Iowa landed suggesting they bought production commensurate to top salary
Whether that occurs in the BIG is to be determined, and it certainly doesn’t mean they spent that
Unfortunately it’s saying nearly the opposite. That Iowa has landed a lot of production, and given they didn’t pay $6+ million, has actually a lot of value additions
We’ll see if that’s true. Past production isn’t a sufficient indicator of future production, particularly when going from MVC to BIG
Remember, they tampered with Uthoff back when that supposedly meant something.
It’s also highly dependent on how many transfers you’ve landed. Iowa has landed 6 transfers. The value they place on a singular guy is also arbitrary. It’s completely made up. Stirtz and Hausen are likely getting half of the 6.6 right now so the other 4 receiving under a million each isn’t eye opening. Guys all across the country that were okay players are receiving that or even more.
And even if you say that the number isn’t 6.6 (which it likely isn’t) you’re certainly not devaluing Stirtz or Hausen. They’re still making about half so then it’d actually devalue the 4 other additions.
Given the timing of the tweet, it probably doesn’t include Hausen
It’s the opposite of arbitrary. It’s from a particular methodology. We can believe that estimation is poor in terms of accurately predicting future production, but we lack data on such judgement
It’s just one data point, but one of the more valid ones in normalizing the collective hauls.
Okay, so in this case that number is likely another million more, putting Iowa at 7.6 million dollars, which is astronomical.
Placing a value on someone based off of past production when that value is actually unknown makes the entire thing incredibly fluky. Especially when you consider some schools are paying more for some guys that have produced little.
It also doesn’t change the fact that having more transfers is obviously going to drive that number up. So without knowing how much “X” school paid in total for their transfer classes, these numbers are meaningless. They’re even meaningless after the season because you have nothing to go off of outside of someone who put together data to quantify an NIL number.
This is just “incoming” transfers, right? So if you want to make this list, your roster had to pretty much be depleted.
And just bc you made the list doesn’t mean it’s accurate or that you spent it wisely
Not a huge B ball guy, but it seems like poor coaching if you have a kid shooting 40+% from 3 & only averaging 11/game.
