2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[cycloneworld]

Most of the pre-season magazines had ISU as 2nd behind Houston, not sure where you are seeing 6th.

I don’t recall ever seeing ISU 2nd.

USA Today had them 6th:

USA TODAY Network Big 12 basketball predictions, preseason awards, all-conference teams

We polled reporters within the USA TODAY Network who cover Big 12 schools for their preseason predictions, all-conference teams and preseason awards.

www.usatoday.com

The Athletic had them 6th:

Big 12 men’s basketball preseason rankings: Houston, Arizona and a crowded top 5

Texas Tech, BYU and Kansas all look like legitimate contenders for the Big 12 title as well.

www.nytimes.com

6th here:

Big 12 Preseason Power Rankings for the 2025-26 Season

Can Houston win a title? Is Arizona bound for the Final Four? The Big 12 added new programs last year and the shakeup is just getting started.

www.hoopshq.com

5th here:

Houston Tabbed As Big 12 Men’s Basketball Favorite, TTU’s Toppin Named Preseason Player of the Year

Fresh off an appearance in the NCAA Championship game, Houston was picked as the favorite in the Big 12 men’s basketball preseason poll. This is the Cougars’ first time sitting atop the preseason poll, after checking in at No. 2 in each of their first two seasons as part of the Big 12.

big12sports.com

 

[harimad]

Most of the pre-season magazines had ISU as 2nd behind Houston, not sure where you are seeing 6th.

Find one that said 2nd. And no sneaky creating your own publication to do it either.

 

[NoCreativity]

I don’t recall ever seeing ISU 2nd.

USA Today had them 6th:

USA TODAY Network Big 12 basketball predictions, preseason awards, all-conference teams

We polled reporters within the USA TODAY Network who cover Big 12 schools for their preseason predictions, all-conference teams and preseason awards.

www.usatoday.com

The Athletic had them 6th:

Big 12 men’s basketball preseason rankings: Houston, Arizona and a crowded top 5

Texas Tech, BYU and Kansas all look like legitimate contenders for the Big 12 title as well.

www.nytimes.com

6th here:

Big 12 Preseason Power Rankings for the 2025-26 Season

Can Houston win a title? Is Arizona bound for the Final Four? The Big 12 added new programs last year and the shakeup is just getting started.

www.hoopshq.com

5th here:

Houston Tabbed As Big 12 Men’s Basketball Favorite, TTU’s Toppin Named Preseason Player of the Year

Fresh off an appearance in the NCAA Championship game, Houston was picked as the favorite in the Big 12 men’s basketball preseason poll. This is the Cougars’ first time sitting atop the preseason poll, after checking in at No. 2 in each of their first two seasons as part of the Big 12.

big12sports.com

The Lindy's preview magazine that I bought to learn about teams had us projected 2nd.

 

[NoCreativity]

Find one that said 2nd. And no sneaky creating your own publication to do it either.

I dont need to find it, I have it right on my bedside stand because I refer to it often when I'm watching games.

The Lindy's Sports pre-season magazine has us 2nd. They have us going to the Elite 8.

 

[harimad]

I dont need to find it, I have it right on my bedside stand because I refer to it often when I'm watching games.

The Lindy's Sports pre-season magazine has us 2nd. They have us going to the Elite 8.

I like Lindy’s then.

 

[qwerty]

Find one that said 2nd. And no sneaky creating your own publication to do it either.

I had a preseason publication where we were predicted 2nd, but someone broke in through the wall last night, and strangely, that was the only thing they stole.

 

[NorthCyd]

Richie Saunders has one of the more punchable faces I can remember.

 

[madguy30]

I like Lindy’s then.

I thought Lindy's was a fishing magazine.

 

[NoCreativity]

I thought Lindy's was a fishing magazine.

You must be thinking of Al Linder, he has that magazine In-Fisherman, which coincidentally enough I have right on my bedside table also.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Richie Saunders has one of the more punchable faces I can remember.

He's definitely a Jason Sutherland type player. You'd love him if he was on your team, but you hate playing him.

 

[NYCYFan]

There's nothing wrong with reevaluating expectations after a loss, as it can be easy to get pretty high while things are going well. But there's no reason to go overboard the other direction yet.

Now, if one loss turns into two this weekend, it'll be a lot more concerning. But it'll still be january, and still plenty of time to right the ship even if some **** happens.

It's one loss in conference season against a very talented underachieving opponent that was desperate for a win in arguably the toughest environment in the country. Ideally you don't want the Cyclones getting their doors blown off but this doesn't really change the trajectory of the season UNLESS they let it play into their heads during this relatively easy schedule coming up before a tough finishing slate.

Now if they lose to Cincinnati on Saturday then we're talking about a team that might be losing firm hold on a 1 seed and maybe isn't as good as we thought they were but even then there's just so much season left to make a proper evaluation, losing in The Phog even in that fashion isn't the end of the world. Essentially I agree with what you're saying.

Speak of the 1 seed, there's very little margin for error on the path to a 1 seed because the top of college basketball is exceptionally tough this season. Arizona, Michigan, UConn, Duke, Houston and Purdue are all strong candidates for a 1 seed. BYU and Michigan State might sneak into that conversation eventually as well. I can't see Nebraska and Vanderbilt keeping up this pace but the aforementioned teams are all very strong so, long story short, I don't think Iowa State can afford to lose more than 2 more games in conference depending on the losses of course. I'm not sure if 14-4 is going to cut it.

 

[madguy30]

You must be thinking of Al Linder, he has that magazine In-Fisherman, which coincidentally enough I have right on my bedside table also.

I think it's the name of some lure company too.

FWIW I don't think ISU wins the conference regular season.

Seems like every season there's a bunch of CF hype about depth, future first rounders/lottery picks etc. and as the season goes along (and this goes for other teams but they actually have NBA guys and more athleticism) the scout gets out and there's limits.

Post depth isn't really that strong and I think the offensive limitations that were thought to be an issue pre-season may be leveling off. I was at the Houston Christian game and ISU seemed to go small for a lot of the game and I wondered if they were trying some things out to prep for needing it.

Don't get me wrong; ISU's a good team and I think there's some elements that make them more 'multiple' than prior seasons but they'll need to play well to stay in the top 1/3 of the conference standings.

 

[NENick]

You must be thinking of Al Linder, he has that magazine In-Fisherman, which coincidentally enough I have right on my bedside table also.

Used to. Al and brother Ron (RIP) left, leaving NW Iowa's own Doug Stange at the helm.

 

[NENick]

I think it's the name of some lure company too.

FWIW I don't think ISU wins the conference regular season.

Seems like every season there's a bunch of CF hype about depth, future first rounders/lottery picks etc. and as the season goes along (and this goes for other teams but they actually have NBA guys and more athleticism) the scout gets out and there's limits.

Post depth isn't really that strong and I think the offensive limitations that were thought to be an issue pre-season may be leveling off. I was at the Houston Christian game and ISU seemed to go small for a lot of the game and I wondered if they were trying some things out to prep for needing it.

Don't get me wrong; ISU's a good team and I think there's some elements that make them more 'multiple' than prior seasons but they'll need to play well to stay in the top 1/3 of the conference standings.

I pretty much agree, but regarding the bolded, this team definitely has the most depth of TJ tenure. Heise, Bateman, Pleta and Nelson provide more quality minutes than previous teams.

 

[NoCreativity]

I think it's the name of some lure company too.

FWIW I don't think ISU wins the conference regular season.

Seems like every season there's a bunch of CF hype about depth, future first rounders/lottery picks etc. and as the season goes along (and this goes for other teams but they actually have NBA guys and more athleticism) the scout gets out and there's limits.

Post depth isn't really that strong and I think the offensive limitations that were thought to be an issue pre-season may be leveling off. I was at the Houston Christian game and ISU seemed to go small for a lot of the game and I wondered if they were trying some things out to prep for needing it.

Don't get me wrong; ISU's a good team and I think there's some elements that make them more 'multiple' than prior seasons but they'll need to play well to stay in the top 1/3 of the conference standings.

Yeah, I've pretty much given up on Iowa State winning the Big 12. We can obviously play with anybody but just aren't consistent enough to finish in that 15-3 range that wins a conference.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if its another 13-5, 12-6 type year. Its inevitable we'll get picked off on the road at some random place we shouldn't lose and history likely predicts at least 1 loss in Hilton.

 

[Cloned4Life]

I’m pretty sure that preseason expectations for this team were 5th or 6th in the conference. That means we are playing with house money. I still can’t believe the disappointment that people are letting out because of our first loss of the season. Never change, Cyclone Fanatic.

This might be my favorite 'Cyclone trait' of all time.

• First - Preseason predictions and expectations and rankings - which, inherently are completely meaningless, completely subjective, and completely based on no actual games being played - have Iowa State not completing for a conference title. National publications and CBB analysts and podcasters, naturally, are not talking much about Iowa State because - you guessed it - they literally never do in the preseason. Literally ever.
• Next - Iowa State factually/objectively starts off the season really, really well. It beats every P4 team it plays, blasting most of them by 20+ points, including the best win of the CBB season thus far at Purdue. Whattaya know!? The CBB analysts and podcasters and coaches and experts and pollsters - they take notice! Huh, isn't that weird? We have actual games played and actual data/results that proves Iowa State is pretty darn good, and is very much proving it is in the conversation as 1 of the very best teams in college basketball. Cool! Facts are fun. Fans correctly re-calibrate "expectations" based on things that have actually happened in real life.
• Next - Fans do what normal fans do. They observe. Iowa State fans start to observe in mid-December that the team is playing a little less crisp, things are not quite flowing as well as they were earlier, teams are adjusting, Iowa State isn't adjusting as well, and the analytics bear this out. And yet - still winning games! Fans rationalize this - elite teams win games even when they are not playing well. Makes perfect sense.
• Well then a whirlwind hits and Iowa State gets trounced by a hungry team that is too talented to sleepwalk through. Its first loss. End of the world? Of course not. Fans were fearful this could happen, because the trends on the court indicated that this could happen. Fans getting frustrated that the actual trends in play that they have observed for 6 weeks have finally cost the team in the W/L column? Yep, very normal and very fair.

At this point in the season on January 15th - one loss literally means nothing. Absolutely nothing. Not 1 single fan is mad that we lost a game. Fans have shared frustration in the way we are playing. Which is very normal.

Trying to rationalize losses or negative trends in play by using preseason "expectations" is the single most little-brothery thing about Cyclone fans.

Iowa State will take the proverbial next step when it collectively transitions from "it is so tough to win at AFH, and Kansas is desperate and hungry" to "let's seize the opportunity to go into AFH and deliver the knock out punch - we are better than them, we're hungry for a title, let's go prove it..."

 

[NYCYFan]

Yeah, I've pretty much given up on Iowa State winning the Big 12. We can obviously play with anybody but just aren't consistent enough to finish in that 15-3 range that wins a conference.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if its another 13-5, 12-6 type year. Its inevitable we'll get picked off on the road at some random place we shouldn't lose and history likely predicts at least 1 loss in Hilton.

Not consistent enough? They literally won every game up until the Kansas game and after a pretty tough non-conference slate. None of the wins were particularly close either outside of the St. John's game. The Iowa game they had in control for the most part, never felt like they'd lose that one.

Maybe you're right and I do feel like they overachieved so far based on what most projected them to be this season but we don't know yet if the Kansas debacle was the beginning of a bunch of ups and downs or just a blip on the radar. I think it's too early to say that a team that was #2 in the nation, and a fully deserved #2, is an inconsistent team.

 

[bawbie]

Funny how that recalibration is invariably one direction, though.

I can't think of any seasons in the last ~15 years providing a counterexample.

I dunno - I think a lot of people "recalibrated" their expectations after the Purdue game!

 

[Big_Sill]

Both Iowa State and Iowa should play both Drake and UNI every year. The games should always be in Hilton and Carver. -- Been my position for the last 30 years.

 

[NoCreativity]

Not consistent enough? They literally won every game up until the Kansas game and after a pretty tough non-conference slate. None of the wins were particularly close either outside of the St. John's game. The Iowa game they had in control for the most part, never felt like they'd lose that one.

Maybe you're right and I do feel like they overachieved so far based on what most projected them to be this season but we don't know yet if the Kansas debacle was the beginning of a bunch of ups and downs or just a blip on the radar. I think it's too early to say that a team that was #2 in the nation, and a fully deserved #2, is an inconsistent team.

I didn't specifically mean this years team. Historically going back to Fred, Prohm, and now TJ we've had very good teams.

However we've never been consistent enough during the season to win a Big 12 championship. We've seen it time and time again, smoke Kansas or Houston, then lose to some bottom feeder on the road on a random Tuesday night in front of 1,000 people.

The key to winning a title in any power conference is to go at least 8-1 or 9-0 at home and then go 6-3 on the road. We've just never had a consistent enough team during the regular season to do that since Eustschy was here.