2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

At the start of the year if you told me we'd go 25-6 in the regular season I would have said sign me up! But of course with the better-than-expected non-con, we recalibrate our expectations.
I'm with you, for sure. Definitely didn't expect this level of a team. But anything less than contending for the B12 title until the end would be a disappointment now, IMO. Of course, I'd take a Final Four or NC over any B12 awards.
 
I would argue that last night was our 3rd-toughest league game, behind only @ BYU and @ Arizona. 15-3 would have us in contention to win the league, IMO. Although in that case, we may have to beat Arizona to win a tiebreaker or something. I could also see Arizona or Houston go 16-2 or 17-1. But last night wasn’t a shocking loss, it was maybe shocking as to the margin and how bad the first half was. Winning in AFH is hard and KU was as desperate as they’ve been under Self. Just lost to WV, looking at starting 1-3 in league play, out of the top 25 but certainly with talent and athleticism to be ranked much higher. We got their A game.
Don't forget needing TCU to soil their diapers in the last 2 minutes to get the game to OT and win at the Phog...
 
Funny how that recalibration is invariably one direction, though.

I can't think of any seasons in the last ~15 years providing a counterexample.
2-22 season. After such a bad non-con, I had next to zero expectations and they exceeded them by going winless in conference.
 
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2-22 season. After such a bad non-con, I had next to zero expectations and they exceeded them by going winless in conference.

That team was so obviously going to be so bad and the completely ****** nature of that season with COVID still around... even going 2-22 as they did they never lowered my expectations.

They were that low to begin.

2-22 is obviously terrible but that season was weird -- few Q4 cupcake games were actually played and no crowd in Hilton. I bet in a normal year that team maybe goes 8-24 (2-16 plus an "L" in KC).

Still ******* bad (banking on a Q4 loss in there) but more of an apples-to-apples comparison.
 
I've always been a proponent of more aggressively seeking out peer games in the non-con.

1.) Selfishly the fan in me likes watching good games against good teams over cupcakes. Yes you're going to lose some of those games but a "good loss" is better than a meaningless Q4 win.

2.) The weak non-con SOS is a weak beam in the structure of Iowa State basketball since TJ took over. The program is at the point reputationally now where good teams will want to play you.

3.) The Big East/SEC/Pac challenges are gone and seemingly dead and a rumored Big 12/Big Ten challenge never materialized. All the more reason to schedule more bespoke matchups.

Keep the 3-4 games in Las Vegas.

Keep Iowa on the schedule now that they seem to be headed in the right direction.

Creighton should be a perpetual home/home opposite the Iowa series.

Reconsider playing Drake and UNI instead of low-major programs.

Call up one other Big Ten team per year to play them -- the Purdue series is great!

Do the same for 2-3 more Big East, SEC, and ACC teams.

I'd rather watch us play Villanova, Arkansas, and Louisville then another Houston Christian. Heck, Gonzaga is probably always looking for a SOS booster. I'm sure they'd take that call with great interest.

Keep some cupcake games sure but more like 3-4 than 6-7.

In general, I’m on-board with your proposals.

This season’s non-con is, arguably, strongest in Otz era (and perhaps even much of decade prior, although that's off top of head, no time now to try to research & assess). One element compared to 2024-25 is since Big 12 dropped back to 18 games, meaning two additional cupcake-gizmo games that weren’t “necessary” last season.

If ISU had gotten a more “respectful” draw for final game of Players Era, it would be at least slight boost to profile (although it might have meant the first L coming at that point, instead of January). Syracuse still at 65 NET, so isn’t like that’s some kind of “horrible” win.
 
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If ISU had gotten a more “respectful” draw for final game of Players Era, it would be at least slight boost to profile (although it might have meant the first L coming at that point, instead of January). Syracuse still at 65 NET, so isn’t like that’s some kind of “horrible” win.

Depending on these in-season tournaments to be the foundation of your SOS is rolling the dice.

Every year the field gets talked up and every year we end up with one or two disappointing matchups. Might be a badly-constructed bracket (e.g., barely lose to a great Auburn team, loved that game, but then shunted into the losers' bracket and play lame Dayton and Colorado teams). Might be an incomprehensible format with random and indefensible tiebreaking rules giving us Creighton and Syracuse when Michigan and Gonzaga were in the same gym that week and boy oh boy I would have much rather played one or both of 'em.

Best you schedule the games directly and remove all doubt.

Vegas is a bonus at that point.
 
Depending on these in-season tournaments to be the foundation of your SOS is rolling the dice.

Every year the field gets talked up and every year we end up with one or two disappointing matchups. Might be a badly-constructed bracket (e.g., barely lose to a great Auburn team, loved that game, but then shunted into the losers' bracket and play lame Dayton and Colorado teams). Might be an incomprehensible format with random and indefensible tiebreaking rules giving us Creighton and Syracuse when Michigan and Gonzaga were in the same gym that week and boy oh boy I would have much rather played one or both of 'em.

Best you schedule the games directly and remove all doubt.

Vegas is a bonus at that point.
Good point(s) regarding those tournaments.

Even if the bracket flow/path appears strong entering the season, teams don't always perform as expected. Like the season ISU beat North Carolina, that turned out to be an OK win, but not a blockbuster.

If I were king, with ISU’s current program status, assuming 18-game conf remains intact (and 31 games reg season cap).

  • 3 games: High-level exempt tournament
  • CyHawk series
  • Home-and-home with major program, possibly even overlapping seasons. For example, ISU’s return home game next season vs. Purdue, play road game with similar opponent and following year it’s the home return, and so on.
  • A solid neutral-site or one-off “tournament,” most seasons. Could be in lieu of the overlapping home/away. It may be unrealistic to expect BOTH those elements.
  • It’d be cool if there could be a cross-conference challenge. If that did occur, maybe the neutral or home/away could be alternating seasons.
  • I’m in no rush to re-ignite Drake or UNI series, but I if each would agree always to play at Hilton, it could return with each opponent alternating. It’s better than another cupcake.
That still requires about five buy games, but that’s preferable to seven, and maybe could be distributed a little more throughout the mix, instead of 2 or 3 straight in stretches.

There needs to be some cake as a pressure valve, I wouldn’t want to a brutal slate + Big 12. That might not be worth the trade-off. Also getting home ticket $ is a factor I'm sure.

—> I assume a little of that is unrealistically ambitious.
 
2-22 season. After such a bad non-con, I had next to zero expectations and they exceeded them by going winless in conference.
In their defense, weren't the Cyclones the last team eliminated from national championship contention? Lol
(Or was that the year before? I've kind of blocked that period of time from my memory.)
 
I’m in no rush to re-ignite Drake or UNI series, but I if each would agree always to play at Hilton, it could return with each opponent alternating. It’s better than another cupcake.

I'd rather play in-state rivals instead of Grambling State again.

I agree home/home with them isn't happening.

But I'd be tolerant of 2/1 or 1/0/1 at Wells Fargo or even 2/1/1.

In their defense, weren't the Cyclones the last team eliminated from national championship contention? Lol
(Or was that the year before? I've kind of blocked that period of time from my memory.)

Technically not until they lost to Oklahoma in KC.

Win out in KC = automatic bid

Win six (or maybe seven!) more = national championship!

Nobody is "out" in college basketball until they lose in their conference tournament (except maybe weird conferences like the Ivy League where they don't have a tournament).
 
Technically not until they lost to Oklahoma in KC.
I knew I was misremembering. I was thinking of the prior year, when Covid shut everything down, right after ISU lost to OSU in the 1st round of the conference tournament.
 
In modern ISU history (Orr until now), I think it would be the 3rd best regular season win % after the two regular season conference title winning teams.

So in essence, a majority are expecting ISU to win this league.
Yeah I'm expecting this team this year to compete for the top spot in our league. I'll be disappointed if we can't make a run at the regular season title. Doesn't mean we will win it. But I think have a chance. I cannot imagine a more loser mentality than to not expect that.
 
I'd rather play in-state rivals instead of Grambling State again.

I agree home/home with them isn't happening.

But I'd be tolerant of 2/1 or 1/0/1 at Wells Fargo or even 2/1/1.



Technically not until they lost to Oklahoma in KC.

Win out in KC = automatic bid

Win six (or maybe seven!) more = national championship!

Nobody is "out" in college basketball until they lose in their conference tournament (except maybe weird conferences like the Ivy League where they don't have a tournament).
Nitpick to clarify: Ivy does have a tournament. (Began in 2017)

Your overall point stands, of course.
 
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Oh no, people here would be disappointed. Anyway…

I really, really want to know what this disappointment looks like.

Like do people go to work the next day and actually tell co-workers they're disappointed in the ISU basketball team and concerned about what happens Saturday?
 
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I don’t remember Nixon getting trucked at the 24 second mark then picking up a baby crap soft foul as soon as he gets up. The most Iowa State thing ever.
I don't remember that, either, maybe I didn't see it in real-time or possibly wiped nearly everything about that period from memory, but my gawd is that a blatant shove in the back then to get a (non) foul immediately after ... insane.
 
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I’m pretty sure that preseason expectations for this team were 5th or 6th in the conference. That means we are playing with house money. I still can’t believe the disappointment that people are letting out because of our first loss of the season. Never change, Cyclone Fanatic.
Most of the pre-season magazines had ISU as 2nd behind Houston, not sure where you are seeing 6th.