I mean, I think it's completely fair to wonder if this is another Otzelberger lull and if the team's lack of energy is going to make them more beatable than they were in early December. But as I try to stay balanced I think we have to take into account that he's had a top ~10 defense since, what, his second season? and his offenses continue to improve. In other words, Otz and his staff took over a program in decline and in four+ seasons its metrics stack up not only with the best teams in the country, but with some of the best programs in history. (Speaking of, selfishly, I would love if someone with kenpom or Torvik could see/chart how the defensive and offensive efficiency ratings have improved since Otz took over.) You may think they're still not built to outlast the Houstons and Arizonas over the course of two months of conference play, but I don't think anyone could argue it's impossible for them to take another step as a program. And they could do it this season
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
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I mean, I think it's completely fair to wonder if this is another Otzelberger lull and if the team's lack of energy is going to make them more beatable than they were in early December. But as I try to stay balanced I think we have to take into account that he's had a top ~10 defense since, what, his second season? and his offenses continue to improve. In other words, Otz and his staff took over a program in decline and in four+ seasons its metrics stack up not only with the best teams in the country, but with some of the best programs in history. (Speaking of, selfishly, I would love if someone with kenpom or Torvik could see/chart how the defensive and offensive efficiency ratings have improved since Otz took over.) You may think they're still not built to outlast the Houstons and Arizonas over the course of two months of conference play, but I don't think anyone could argue it's impossible for them to take another step as a program. And they could do it this season
It's my understanding Drake and UNI are the problem if Ames/Iowa City always was the plan.
Interesting, foolish on their part if so. Not sure if bitter, stubborn, scorned or foolishly hopeful is their excuse... but they should get over it.
Vague memories here -- so take what I'm about to say with appropriate humility.
I thought I heard Drake and UNI demanded home/home 1/1 while Iowa St. (can't speak for Iowa here) was willing to do 2/1 or maybe like Hilton/Wells Fargo 1/1 to continue the series.
Drake and UNI held the line... and the series ended.
It would help if either Iowa or Iowa State would pay the market rate for what it takes to buy a Valley team and not try to get an in-state discount. That was the issue the last time a game was discussed plus UNI and Drake don't necessarily even take buys every year anymore. UNI hasn't taken one since 2022 when they were supposed to play Virginia the day of the shooting there.
Not sure where Iowa State sits on it right now but Iowa has no interest in playing either. I'm guessing Iowa State is in the same place.
UNI offered them both Ames/IC-DSM-Ames/IC-Cedar Falls-Ames/IC (3-1-1) the year after the Big Four ended and neither was interested.
I'm frankly over it. They're gone, they're never coming back.
This is what I heard too back when the annual Wells Fargo thing ended (which I wasn't disappointed to see, ISU always played like **** there), but it was more about the money and less about the location if I remember right.
edit: what @1UNI2ISU said, basically. Schedule-wise it seems like a win-win for Drake or UNI here, even if they never get a true home game. It's like when we play at KU, outside of rare/unusual situations like this year, it's usually a game that only helps you, if you win it's your biggest win of the year, and if you lose even if you get blown out no one cares, you're supposed to lose that game. But if they weren't getting offered reasonable/typical money for playing that kind of game, hard to blame them for saying no thanks.
While that's true, not many Iowa State teams have gone undefeated this late in the season including smashing a top 5 level team on the road so maybe this year will be different.
I can see a loss or two against a middle of the team on the road though, it's extremely hard to only lose a game or two on the road in conference play so, yeah, I do expect a 13-5 or 14-4 type of conference record. 12-6 or less would be disappointing at this point considering the start they had.
I went to that every year and while it was fun to see all 4 teams on the same day, the environment was really sterile.
Im kind of glad they ended it but would be good for the state if we played on campuses again.
Dafuq am I catching strays from you for? I’m the one saying it’s just one loss and don’t be disappointed. Little brother? GFY bro.
I don't think the Otzelberger 'lull' is really a thing. There was a lull last year, but I blame that on injuries to Momcilovic, Lipsey and Gilbert.
-2023-2024 there was no lull. If anything we started slow, then got better once Gilbert and Jones hit their stride partway into conference play, and we were rolling by the end of the season (blowing out Houston in the Big 12 title game).
-2022-2023, maybe a small lull, but that team was never that good. Got killed by Iowa and UConn in the non-conference. Did start out hot in the Big 12, then it was hit or miss the rest of the year. Everyone thought we were great after the November tournament because we beat Villanova and UNC, neither of which ended up being good teams.
2021-2022. Decent team. Non conference looked great mostly due to a weak schedule and piss pounding Iowa. Conference season was filled with win/loss streaks. Ended the year losing 3 in a row before making a run to the Sweet 16. Up and down season where you didn't really know what you'd get depending on how a couple guys shot the ball that night.
Here is an interesting tidbit for you. Granted, Michigan was rolling at that point and rolled all of the PET teams they played so this is just ignoring W/L or margin of victory - just number of games in each quad - but if ISU and Michigan swapped draws in that tournament here is how things look different at this point of the season:
Now:
Michigan (NET 1)
Q1a 1
Q1b 5
Q2a 4
Q2b 1
ISU (NET 6)
Q1a 3
Q1b 2
Q2a 2
Q2b 3
Fantasy world:
Michigan
Q1a 1
Q1b 3
Q2a 6
Q2b 1
ISU
Q1a 3
Q1b 4
Q2a 0
Q2b 3
In this alternate reality Michigan's 4 games in Q1 look pretty pedestrian while ISU's 7 Q1 games is one of the toughest starts in the country. ISU really got screwed over in that event.
You’d think people in an analytics th
The real trend is this program is getting better every single year, there’s just a lot of luck and noise in year to year results.
Last years team could’ve been special without injuries. This team could be even better, but every year there are a number of contenders for conference, F4, title, whatever, and most don’t get lucky enough to do it.
What we do know is if TJ keeps up his trend, odds go up that one of these years is a hit. Look at the way guys perform vs their expectations, and then look at the trend in who he’s able to recruit.
- There’s 0 evidence for an “Otz lull.”
- There’s clear evidence the program is improving year over year, and outperforming resources and talent
- Weird $h!t happens in sports. Most “contenders” disappoint.
You’d think people in analytics themed thread would be smart enough not to make up a trend from something that happened literally just one year with an outlier number of injuries.
The real trend is this program is getting better every single year, there’s just a lot of luck and noise in year to year results.
Last years team could’ve been special without injuries. This team could be even better, but every year there are a number of contenders for conference, F4, title, whatever, and most don’t get lucky enough to do it.
What we do know is if TJ keeps up his trend, odds go up that one of these years is a hit. Look at the way guys perform vs their expectations, and then look at the trend in who he’s able to recruit.
- There’s 0 evidence for an “Otz lull.”
- There’s clear evidence the program is improving year over year, and outperforming resources and talent
- Weird $h!t happens in sports. Most “contenders” disappoint.
I am going to push back on this narrative (slightly) with some of the analytical data.
The first two seasons of the TJ era definitely had a downward trend (measured by the linear fit on the Torvik game scores) observable on the graph. Here they are with some commentary.
2021-2022
Overmatched but scrappy team starts hot by punching opponents in the mouth with its defense acumen, though the Big 12 exposes its lack of talent. Rallies with two good games in Milwaukee.
2022-2023
Another hot start but same problem -- hot start because of a powerful defense but worn down in the conference by a lack of high-major talent and injuries (Kunc, Osunniyi, Grill, Lipsey).
2023-2024
The trend starts to be bucked. Objectively the best team of the TJ era. Really a shame it didn't make a deeper run than the Sweet Sixteen. Got better then longer we went into the season.
2024-2025
Trended down over time but not at as stark of rate as the first two TJ teams. Didn't lack for talent, but the cumulative effect of injuries (Gilbert, Lipsey, Jackson, Momcilovic) lowered their ceiling.
So we've got 2/4 teams with a "TJ fade" because the team just wasn't that great in the first place, 1/4 with a "TJ fade" clearly traceable to injuries, and 1/4 with no fade whatsoever throughout the year.
I can see where the narrative comes from, and there is some surface-level evidence for it in the data, but I think the sample size is too small and the mitigating factors too many to come out and say "TJ teams always fade by the end of the year." Sometimes that is just going to happen that season.
Imagine surging or fading is a 50-50 proposition -- probably close enough.
Imagine you have four kids.
Would you be shocked if three were one sex and one was the other? No. Perfectly realistic outcome.
The line so far this year is weird. Consistently good-to-great-to-elite then one absolute bomb. I know the linear fit is trending down, but I don't think that's a fair metric to use in the midseason.
It’s perfectly reasonably to acknowledge that the offense seems to be sputtering a bit and the defense looked pedestrian against Kansas, but one game on the road in maybe the toughest place to win at historically isn’t a cause for alarm. This team is getting scouted better each game, and it’s on the coaches and the players now to scout against the scout and get back at it. They are too good not to. I honestly think we come out laser focused at Cincinnati and go on a little run come Kansas at home. I could see a 6-1/7-0 run to get us to 22-2/23-1 situation. I sure hope I’m proven right but this team has it in them for sure. Just got to go do it now.
It was said (and I agreed with) on here before the road games to Waco and Lawrence...
0-2 = bad, drops you off the #1 line for now
1-1 = held serve
2-0 = excellent, on the inside track for a #1 seed
1-1 in two Big 12 road games when one of them is Lawrence is... fine and actually pretty good.
There’s been one year of high major talent not riddled by injuries and the team did not lull. Even if you keep the first year, it’s 50/50 and they still over-performed in the tournament.
There’s no reason to think if this years team stays healthy that they should have a lull.
That said one could claim that Otz-ball is causing the injuries. I’d be open to considering whether we play or miss-train our guards in a way to leads to more groin injuries. Too small sample to conclude anything, but I might start to worry if it happens more often than at other physical programs over the years.
I’d be curious what the average game quality trend looks like for tournament level teams.
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Kansas up to 15th in kenpom after last nights victory over Baylor. I think Kansas just might be starting to figure it out. Granted, losing like we did is never ideal, but they are a dangerous squad, and certainly so at home. We are still 3rd on kenpom as of this morning. Offense has taken a dip but if we can get this thing back on track the next couple weeks set up nicely for our revenge game against them at home. Go out today and show Cincinnati who we really are!
