Cyclonepride
Thought Police
He is the ultimate "what do you need me to do, Coach?" guy.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
Lots of great points on Heise in here. I think Heise’s 3 pt efficiency will come along, but he is almost always only going to be putting up 1-3 3 point attempts per night. Maybe more if he hits a couple and depending on the flow of the game. So, it would not surprise me if he appears streaky by going 0-2 some nights and 3-3 other nights. As others have said, 33-35% from him is enough to keep defenses honest. He’s shown enough last year and this year that a defense really shouldn’t sag off him unless the plan is to shutdown JJ or MM.
Painter put it perfectly calling Nate a "functional winner"
35% would be incredible.
He is at 27.6% this year and would be under 20% if not for his 3-3 performance against Alcon State. Let’s be honest / that’s damn near “you’re not allowed to shoot anymore” range.
This was about the rate at which teams started sagging off Lipsey his freshman year and daring him to shoot.
Like Tamin - although not to the same degree - Nate does a lot of other positive things to impact the game. But this becomes a liability at some point. When you don’t have to respect his outside shot it ***** up the entire offense.
He is at 27.6% this year and would be under 20% if not for his 3-3 performance against Alcon State. Let’s be honest / that’s damn near “you’re not allowed to shoot anymore” range.
This was about the rate at which teams started sagging off Lipsey his freshman year and daring him to shoot.
Like Tamin - although not to the same degree - Nate does a lot of other positive things to impact the game. But this becomes a liability at some point. When you don’t have to respect his outside shot it ***** up the entire offense.
Welcome to (checks notes) every single sports message board in the history of message boards.
I fully expect Heise to get up close to 35%-40% by end of season. I have absolutely zero concerns with his shot. The absolute worst thing that could happen is him to stop shooting.
Agree not shooting is probably the worst thing. To my point earlier, they’re good looks. Hope that you’re right because it’s a materially different offense if he shoots at that clip.
which is why i think anyone predicting 4 losses or less is just begging for disappointment.
This is of course a high bar and recipe for let down. But there are only a few games where we won’t be favored.
It always bugs me when people do this. You don't get to just selectively remove data to prove a point. Nate has played a lot of basketball and it shows he is a 35% shooter from 3.
Totally fair point.
God willing he gets back up to 35%. If he’s going to be on the floor end of tight games as we’d expect TJ to do his ability to knock down open shots or at least be a threat to do so is going to be the difference in a game we need late this season.
He went through the exact same thing but I think worse last year. He was a liability for a few games but Otz stuck with him and he closed out the season shooting over 50% through like the last 10+ games and ended up being at 40% in the season.
It’ll come around again
Yeah people post some really stupid **** without thinking it through.
Geez - I thought Cuse had figured something out, beating Tennessee and St Joes after Vegas - then I saw that they lost to Hofstra on Saturday. UghAdmitting Minnesota is an accomplishment?
It would sure be nice for schools like Creighton and Syracuse to figure things out and quit dragging us down. I realize the guys just need to keep focusing on what they need to do to win games, but from an analytics standpoint and for seeding, etc.. we could use a hand from the teams we've beaten already!
We should have had 3 games against tourney teams in Vegas - but we may end up with just the one
So we are doing this again?
Here are Nate's 3pt% by year:
Fr .305
So .355
So .167 (he only played 2 games due to injury so not a representative sample)
Jr .356
Sr .409
Gr .276
Any coach who has done their scouting knows that you can't just sag off of him because he has a long history of getting it done. A coach who only looks at the season stats isn't doing his homework. A good shooter who is slumping only needs one unguarded look to go in to get on a tear.
I personally like to keep my expectations realistic. And now sitting here on December 17, we have at least some data to suggest that we have a really, really good team on our hands.
For context - before the season started, I honestly did not see a roster that had a ceiling in the Top 10. I was thinking back then - if we played well this year, we could be a top 15/20 type team, at our max. Not a type 5 team, at all.
But now I have 11 games to base an opinion off, and it looks like my initial preseason thoughts were off-base; the data and the eye test tell me that we actually do have a ceiling of Top 5. This is awesome! We should all be really excited about this.
So yeah, I do expect us to play well and end up with an extremely good W/L record and a great seed in the NCAA tourney. If we don't, I will absolutely be disappointed. Let's say we finish the regular season with 8 losses and we're ranked #24 in the country. I'm not going to say "well, I guess if you asked me in October, I would have said this sounds about right, so now I can use my preseason expectations to make me feel better about our record now.." It doesn't work that way. And it is beyond annoying and ridiculous when Cyclone fans do this. It's like collectively we're so damn scared to get our hopes up. It is almost like some here almost prefer to NOT be ranked #4 right now as this will inflate expectations. Expectations should go up right now. The team should be aiming for a Big 12 title right now. The team should be acting like, practicing like, and playing like a Top 5/10 team. Because they are one! The Big 12 is extremely top heavy this year, so there is an amazing opportunity to have our best record ever in conference and be right there are the top of the league contending for a title. I will be frustrated if we are not in contention.
For starters, everyone heard that Toure was good, but I don't think anyone expected Big 12 Freshman of the Year* caliber good. Everyone heard that TJ challenged Milan to be more aggressive offensively but nobody expected the light to go on and burn that bright for Momcilovic. Everyone heard that Buchanan was a good fit to TJ's system but I don't think anyone expected this good of a fit.
Lots to be pleasantly surprised about...
*For the record, I don't think Toure will win the freshman of the year honor. He is solid offensively. His eliteness is in his defense, however that is undervalued in award voting.
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The last week alone teams like Duke and Michigan showed that playing 'like a top 5/10 team' isn't always a thing and that can and will happen to anyone.
Full disclosure I haven't seen the other freshmen, but for our team, I don't know who I'd like to replace him with. He is a baller.
