“Tell me what flavor bubble gum #34 is chewing”
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
This story reminds me of the 2018-19 team (the Shayok team with freshman Haliburton).
They wrecked Kansas by 17 early in the conference season in Hilton.
https://www.barttorvik.com/box.php?muid=KansasIowa+St.1-5&year=2019
During the game, Fran Fraschilla said "Iowa State has the most talent in the Big 12" or something to that effect, which was saying something considering the Big 12 conference of the era. Everybody got so excited and thought that year was the year when the Cyclones would do the biggest things.
That team went on to underwhelm with a 9-9 finish in the conference, a #6 seed, and losing in the first round to a "meh" Ohio St. team in Tulsa, Oklahoma (and yes, I was there for that one).
That season wasn't an all-timer but relative to preseason expectations it made par. But people went on and on about how it was a disaster and everything was a complete disaster after that year.
I'm less concerned about Steve Prohm's coaching acumen (and love him or hate him he's long gone now and so is any "damage" he did to the program though he did endow us with Tyrese Haliburton, which makes up for a lot of issues) than this story shows expectations tend to be a one-way ratchet "up."
I kind of get why, though. The fanbase is DESPARATE for a truly transcendent season from a marquis sport. The Cyclones are definitely stronger in the major sports than they've been in decades, but all that strength hasn't generated a singular accomplish that is going to redound in our history forever.
I would define such an accomplishment as the following for...
Football = Big 12 championship and/or playoff berth
Basketball (M or W) = regular season Big 12 title or Final Four berth
Wrestling = national championship
The Campbell era teased us in football, and we're still damaged from the "incident" in Auburn Hills when the Fizer-Tinsley team was on the cusp of a Final Four and maybe even a national championship.
We're really thirsty for that one shining moment, which sometimes puts expectations out of alignment.
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That is a fascinating comparison - I saw the video and was just coming to comment on it. There are definitely similarities, but that Baylor team was #2 OPR and #22 DPR - basically the worst defensive team to win the title in 2 decades.
Davion Mitchell as a comp for Toure is really interesting.
AJ Dybantsa is supposed to be a senior in high school right now, and will win Freshman of the year handily.
Toure is an absolute menace, and I hope he's in Ames for a few years
I don't think JJ will win it over the bigger names at this point - but I should find the post I made back in May or June where I said he would be in the running for Big XII POY - I think I said he would be 18/10/5, his rebounding is a bit off from that, but the rest isn't
Agree.
I don't see there being anything Toure can do to win freshman of the year. Feels like Dybansta is pre-ordained here and so far playing like the top draft pick he's projected to be. Peterson at Kansas has been injured, but he's going to be in this mix as well.
That is not to say Toure isn't just as important or impactful in his own right, but I see zero chance the voters skip over not one but two projected top-3 picks.
Regardless, that's pretty damn good company for Toure.
"Not only did I learn that it is lemon fruit stripe gum, but I stole the gum from him. Here you go, Coach."
Great comparison. My earlier post is proven by this exact situation.
In 2018-2019, we learned - after the first portion of the season - that we WERE the most talented team in the Big 12. Expectations correctly rose. National folks recognized it, we recognized it. Same with the 2000 team. Like at some point ya just go - whoa, um yeah we've got ourselves a squad here.
So finishing 9-9 and losing 1st round NCAA was incredibly disappointing. And fans were correct to be disappointed. Absolutely nothing - and I mean quite literally nothing - from the preseason was remotely relevant, in ANY way, in March. We had a great team. They showed they could play like an elite team. Then, Prohm's terrible coaching and player/program management happened and it crashed the season. It was fun winning the Big 12 tourney, but outside of that, incredibly disappointing and deflating.
We just get very "MY PRECIOUS!" when we think we're on track for something big and then it fizzles out. Last year would be an example of that phenomenon with the injuries. Some posters on here got REALLY weird as a result dreaming up all sorts of conspiracy theories about Keshon Gilbert going out.
Reality is most years it is going to fizzle out when your ambitions are Big 12 championships (in a conference with a traditional power like Kansas and well-resourced newcomers like Arizona and BYU and programs drowning in oil money like Tech) and Final Four appearances (there are only four of 'em).
You're always buying lottery tickets at this point in the season.
We can just afford to buy way more than usual given what this team has shown so far.
my comment was more in regards to the wild range of critique in games. teams just aren't going to play at their ceiling for 40 minutes. you are lucky if you get 10-20 minutes of elite play and the rest needs to be serviceable.
the other team is also trying to make offense uncomfortable with their defense, and trying to exploit mismatches and advantages with their offense. sometimes this works. sometimes it is hard for the players or coaches to correct. sometimes a team just shoots the lights out and sometimes a team is flat.
The ratcheting up of expectations is what I always have the biggest problem with. If the expectations are always set by whatever the best game was, then a fan is setting themselves up for nothing but disappointment. And sports just really don't work the way that many want to think--where a team does nothing but maintain or get better over the course of a season.
Even in that 18/19 season, below are the game scores from Barttorvik. There's no real reason why the Kansas game (circled in red) should have meant any more for Iowa State's expectations in that moment than the Arizona, Iowa, or Drake games (circled in blue). And yet, KU was treated as the expectation setter.
That doesn't mean that fans shouldn't have been disappointed by that stretch towards the end of the season. Absolutely, it was not fun and was disappointing. But whatever the situation is, it's almost always not as good as a fan thinks during the highs (as seen by the losses right after that KU game), or as bad as fans think during the lows (as seen by the Big 12 tournament championship right after the end-of-season stretch).
TBH, if we weren't shooting such a torrid rate, his rebounding might be higher.
Toure might not even be a top 5 freshman in the conference. It's loaded.
Dybansta - BYU
Peterson -KU
Yessoufou - Baylor
Flemings - Houston
Peat - Arizona
I think he could realistically win BigXII Defensive Player of the Year if he plays in conference the way he has played so far. His defensive performance against Smith and Stirtz was off the charts - and there aren't any PGs that good he'll face in conference.
Yet he might be the freshman with most impact his teams success.
Those players are all the best or second best players on their teams. Toure is really good, but he is 3rd or 4th best on his team.
Yeah, these guys are no joke. These guys will all be lottery picks.
Was reading something from an NBA scout the other day talking about this year's freshman class. Said Cooper Flagg was unanimous #1 last year and "generational talent" yet thought he could go as low as #5 in this year's class. That's maybe a little hyperbolic, but that's how high some of these scouts are on the like of Dybansta, Peterson, Boozer, etc.
Jacktronic
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Side semi-related rant: I blame that OSU tourney loss completely on the ref incorrectly calling a kicked ball to what was actually a steal (Hali got it with his hand). It was a 4 point swing at a critical moment when we were surging. Now I'm annoyed just thinking about it.
Gives me confidence Toure wont make the NBA jump after this year. He's great, but there's at least 10-12 freshman ahead of him nationally for sure. Add in foreign players and non-freshman and the first round of the draft fills up real quick.
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