2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

Not a great game for the analytics. Looks like the worst one all season.

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Can't argue with the W against a hated rival who played you tough, though!

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Absolutely baller games from Jefferson and Buchanan.

Jefferson with the 3/6 from three and 7/9 from the line including the clinchers.

Buchanan with a hyper-efficient 2/3 from the field, 2/2 from the line, two assists, three steals, four blocks, and six boards without committing a turnover and only committing one foul.

Jake and Brent on the pod predicted the Cyclone big men would maul the Iowa front court while the matchup between the guards would be more even. They were completely correct.

The Heise line hurts me -- he missed three open threes he usually makes. He drills those and the Cyclones win 75-62 and we're talking about having taken Iowa out behind the woodshed. Everybody else was "fine." Hopefully Nate hits one or two of those open threes afforded once we're into the teeth of the Big 12.

Strongly projected as a #1 seed right now alongside Big 12 new friend Arizona.
I agree with the Heise take - but some of this is on Milan too. Iowa did a much much better job that I expected in defending Milan. I didn't even really gather how they did it, except he just never seemed open. Milan + Batemon only taking 3 threes is not going to work in any game. That number needs to be 8-10, even if they are forcing bad shots.

I'm surprised we ended up 12-20 at the rim - it seemed far worse than that. It's only ~10% lower than our season average. 5-17 from mid-range really hurt as we were shooting over 55% from there.

Just a rough shooting game - especially in the first half, it seemed like we were hacked on every shot at the rim and they didn't call anything. Iowa did a great job playing physical against us - and were really helped by the refs allowing a ton of contact (both ways).

I would also say that Iowa did a really good job on the defensive glass. We got some offensive boards early, but then it dried up. MSU just killed them on the glass and we weren't able to.
 
I agree with the Heise take - but some of this is on Milan too. Iowa did a much much better job that I expected in defending Milan. I didn't even really gather how they did it, except he just never seemed open. Milan + Batemon only taking 3 threes is not going to work in any game. That number needs to be 8-10, even if they are forcing bad shots.

I'm surprised we ended up 12-20 at the rim - it seemed far worse than that. It's only ~10% lower than our season average. 5-17 from mid-range really hurt as we were shooting over 55% from there.

Just a rough shooting game - especially in the first half, it seemed like we were hacked on every shot at the rim and they didn't call anything. Iowa did a great job playing physical against us - and were really helped by the refs allowing a ton of contact (both ways).

I would also say that Iowa did a really good job on the defensive glass. We got some offensive boards early, but then it dried up. MSU just killed them on the glass and we weren't able to.
crazy we went 12-20 at the rim because I swear we started like 1 of 8.
 
Buchanan from what I've seen doesn't just deflect shots but seems to do it for a possession instead of trying to swat it into the 2nd row, which looks cool but doesn't really do anything except give the opponent a chance to reset.
Sign me up for the Buchanan fan club. He reminds me a lot of BRE, except with far superior athletic skills.
This starting 5 has no glaring weaknesses
 
Not a great game for the analytics. Looks like the worst one all season.

View attachment 163477

Can't argue with the W against a hated rival who played you tough, though!

View attachment 163478

Absolutely baller games from Jefferson and Buchanan.

Jefferson with the 3/6 from three and 7/9 from the line including the clinchers.

Buchanan with a hyper-efficient 2/3 from the field, 2/2 from the line, two assists, three steals, four blocks, and six boards without committing a turnover and only committing one foul.

Jake and Brent on the pod predicted the Cyclone big men would maul the Iowa front court while the matchup between the guards would be more even. They were completely correct.

The Heise line hurts me -- he missed three open threes he usually makes. He drills those and the Cyclones win 75-62 and we're talking about having taken Iowa out behind the woodshed. Everybody else was "fine." Hopefully Nate hits one or two of those open threes afforded once we're into the teeth of the Big 12.

Strongly projected as a #1 seed right now alongside Big 12 new friend Arizona.

View attachment 163479

Something like this setup right now. Tracking very strongly toward St. Louis and hopefully (oh dear we never play well here) Chicago for the regional and Indianapolis for the finals.

Buffalo = #1 Michigan | #10 Louisville

Greenville, SC = #2 Duke | #6 Vanderbilt

Oklahoma City = #11 Houston | #12 Illinois

Philadelphia = #5 Connecticut | #14 Michigan St.

Portland = #8 Gonzaga | #16 Florida

San Diego = #4 Arizona | #13 BYU

St. Louis = #3 Iowa St. | #7 Purdue

Tampa = #9 Alabama | #15 Kansas
Regarding Heise, his offense is a bonus most games. He can not make a shot and the rest of his game makes him worth keeping on the floor, so going 0-3 from deep is not a concern at all for me. I'd feel differently if that was 1-9.
 
Regarding Heise, his offense is a bonus most games. He can not make a shot and the rest of his game makes him worth keeping on the floor, so going 0-3 from deep is not a concern at all for me. I'd feel differently if that was 1-9.
Agreed. Over the course of the season, I would like to see him shoot his three's around 35%. Something to keep defenses honest when he is the outlet to the corner. But his value to the team is far more than making open shots. He's the guard that will do the "dirty work" (set screens, play hard defense, dive for loose balls, etc) that each team needs to have off the bench
 
...

The Heise line hurts me -- he missed three open threes he usually makes. He drills those and the Cyclones win 75-62 and we're talking about having taken Iowa out behind the woodshed. Everybody else was "fine." Hopefully Nate hits one or two of those open threes afforded once we're into the teeth of the Big 12.

...
Probably more damaging was all of the misses at the rim in the first 3rd of the game. Iowa never gets up by double digits if ISU hits a few of those layups. I know there was a lot of contact, but the officials were calling the game exactly how TJ wants - let the physicality go.
 
I agree with the Heise take - but some of this is on Milan too. Iowa did a much much better job that I expected in defending Milan. I didn't even really gather how they did it, except he just never seemed open. Milan + Batemon only taking 3 threes is not going to work in any game. That number needs to be 8-10, even if they are forcing bad shots.

I'm surprised we ended up 12-20 at the rim - it seemed far worse than that. It's only ~10% lower than our season average. 5-17 from mid-range really hurt as we were shooting over 55% from there.

Just a rough shooting game - especially in the first half, it seemed like we were hacked on every shot at the rim and they didn't call anything. Iowa did a great job playing physical against us - and were really helped by the refs allowing a ton of contact (both ways).

I would also say that Iowa did a really good job on the defensive glass. We got some offensive boards early, but then it dried up. MSU just killed them on the glass and we weren't able to.
Tamin missed 2 or 3 layups that really weren't that tough he normally makes those no problem
 
Noted somewhere "up-thread" (can't find specific at the moment), Heise did look rushed/uncomfortable with his shot, it's more similar to how it typically went early last season, not as relaxed and confident.

I think other players may have been "pressing," too, (Milan may have been among them) perhaps frustration of having some normally easy shots not fall. Like there was a collective "we have to get rolling" and in some spots in backfired.

D turned up a notch or two later in 1st half and early in 2nd and that definitely helped get the momentum back.
 
  • Agree
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