2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[dahliaclone]

Defensive efficiency actually was significantly worse last year compared to the rest of the TJ era.

View attachment 161212

Still way better than Hoiberg and Prohm teams but not as good as the first three squads.

Right. Just saying he's been much better than previous coaches with defense, regardless of a year like last year. In agreement there.

 

[CascadeClone]

Offense will struggle down the road because of 3 point shooting IMO. Teams will pack the paint and make our guys shoot over the top. Jefferson and Lipsey need to hit mid 30s percentage consistently and we need Heise and Batemon to let it rip off the bench. MM has got to get more consistent too. He can’t go 8/10 one game and then like 0/16 the next four. Not going to work against real teams.

I share this concern, but a little differently.

They've been scoring a lot, but in the half-court its really just Lipsey driving and JJ backing a guy down. That isn't going to be very effective vs really good teams. So those games, you have to either get lots of points of TOs (which they can do) and/or shoot the 3 well like 40%+ (which they can do).

But there will be games vs teams with good guards that don't turn it over, and they won't hit crap from 3. And those are gonna be a problem.

The glass half full though is they can beat you either with defense (turning you over) OR shooting the 3 at a good rate. It's a lot like last year.

 

[rosshm16]

I'm actually a little bullish on our three-point shooting right now. We have six different guys (Milan, Tamin, Heise, Batemon, Jefferson, Toure) who I'm at least reasonably confident in when they take a three.

Hard to say much though after only playing one team with a pulse. Ask me again after next week!

 

[KennyPratt42]

That makes sense. I was thinking about it like that before but I probably had been overthinking it... Kinda like when you repeat a word too much and it stops sounding like a real word.

Our ceiling depends on JJ, Tamin and Milan being good enough against other teams best guys to give our team an advantage whether that's them scoring or opening up shots for others.

Somewhat of a side thought but related, I think this team's best offensive advantage is passing at the 4 and 5 with JJ and Buchanan. Buchanan's garbage man role is more of a floor support, but his passing to 4 other guys cutting and shooting could elevate the offensive ceiling maybe even more-so than if he was a good post scorer

Completely agree with this, Buchanan and Jefferson's passing and ability to work together on the offensive end has been the biggest positive surprise for me so far this year.

 

[GoodOleDays]

Defensive efficiency actually was significantly worse last year compared to the rest of the TJ era.

View attachment 161212

Still way better than Hoiberg and Prohm teams but not as good as the first three squads.

This is precisely why we have a whole new profile for bigs vs last year. We simply couldn't run the same blitz trap defense with bigs being a step slow to rotate. Plus Otz has said this perimeter has speed and athleticism he hasn't had since his first year. This defense should be really good again as long as they continue to tighten up rotations.

Fast-pace/lots of transition games like we've been playing seem to skew defense numbers down and offensive numbers up on both sides. This is why I want parsed out transition and half-court efficiency numbers.

Also, can you really play defense with the same intensity when you know you can score at will?
ISU is a little different because our identity is built on defense, but I think some of the athletic offensive teams can turn on their defense when it counts in a way these metrics tend to underrate. Daily habits are important and all but I think defensive efficiency metrics from close games exclusively would be more telling of a team's ceiling and that's part of why offensive metrics are more predictive of tourney success

 

[VeloClone]

I'm actually a little bullish on our three-point shooting right now. We have six different guys (Milan, Tamin, Heise, Batemon, Jefferson, Toure) who I'm at least reasonably confident in when they take a three.

Hard to say much though after only playing one team with a pulse. Ask me again after next week!

Just the guys who we have seen at Iowa State can do enough to keep teams honest. Here are the ISU career 3pt% of these returners:

Heise - .387
Milan - .382
Tamin - .344
JJeff - .308

It's nothing to scare anyone but it is enough to keep defenses honest. Remember .333 is equivalent to shooting .500 from 2.

And if that isn't enough we have Kelderman who is scorching the nets at a .455 clip - in a limited sample size, of course.

 

[NENick]

Seems like our center might be 20 minutes of Buchanen, 10 minutes between Pleta and Mulder and 10 minutes of small ball. Depending on matchups, of course.

Agree on post minutes. Last night Pleta and Mulder were 7 and 6 minutes, respectively. Buchanan played 22. Foul trouble for Buchanan will obviously make a difference.

Just the guys who we have seen at Iowa State can do enough to keep teams honest. Here are the ISU career 3pt% of these returners:

Heise - .387
Milan - .382
Tamin - .344
JJeff - .308

It's nothing to scare anyone but it is enough to keep defenses honest. Remember .333 is equivalent to shooting .500 from 2.

And if that isn't enough we have Kelderman who is scorching the nets at a .455 clip - in a limited sample size, of course.

For Heise and Jefferson, does this include prior college numbers? I think Nate's struggles during the 1st 1/2 of last season probably pulled his % down, while JJ might have raised his career % a bit.

 

[NENick]

For Heise and Jefferson, does this include prior college numbers? I think Nate's struggles during the 1st 1/2 of last season probably pulled his % down, while JJ might have raised his career % a bit.

I checked. Yes, Jefferson pulled his 3 pt % up a bit. But I was wrong about Heise. Last year was his best from 3, despite the slow start.

 

[NorthCyd]

I checked. Yes, Jefferson pulled his 3 pt % up a bit. But I was wrong about Heise. Last year was his best from 3, despite the slow start.

Wasn't Heise perfect from 3 for like the last 4 games or something?

 

[bawbie]

One thing I like to do is filter Barttorvik to start on 11/2 instead of 11/1, which filters out the pre-season projections. When you do that, below is what you get. Iowa State at #11 in the country and just behind Houston in the Big 12, with the #13 offense and #35 defense. I'm sure the offense/defense split will surprise some people. Link

Doesn't surprise me just based on the eye test. It seems like we've given up an abnormal number of easy buckets at the rim and open 3s to their best shooters. Hopefully that will get tightened up when games are closer, but it hasn't always looked good so far.

I saw it on twitter, but didn't see it posted here, at least not in this thread. Kenpom's player of the year standings currently have Lipsey and Jefferson and #8 and #9.

Lipsey current has a 7:1 assist to turnover ratio and a 5:1 steal to turnover ration (21 assists, 15 steals and 3 turnovers) - while averaging 19 ppg. Frankly he should be higher than #8

 

[CySmurf]

Question - is one of those 8/10 games against Houston?

That would be great!

 

[Sigmapolis]

This is precisely why we have a whole new profile for bigs vs last year. We simply couldn't run the same blitz trap defense with bigs being a step slow to rotate. Plus Otz has said this perimeter has speed and athleticism he hasn't had since his first year. This defense should be really good again as long as they continue to tighten up rotations.

I certainly agree Jackson and Chatfield were not fits for the defense in the same way as Jones and Ward. The big has to have the lateral footspeed to stay in front of driving guards and wings.

Buchanan seems to have that ability. I'm just less sure on Pleta and Mulder. This is why my Devil's Advocate post was complimentary to Buchanan but bemoaned we're only going to have one of him.

Also, can you really play defense with the same intensity when you know you can score at will? ISU is a little different because our identity is built on defense, but I think some of the athletic offensive teams can turn on their defense when it counts in a way these metrics tend to underrate. Daily habits are important and all but I think defensive efficiency metrics from close games exclusively would be more telling of a team's ceiling and that's part of why offensive metrics are more predictive of tourney success

I've always been skeptical of the they can "turn it on" arguments. The NBA (and NFL and MLB, for that matter) analytics literature has always pushed back on this notion, too. Whenever this point comes up, I'm always reminded of Brad Pitt saying, "If he hits so good, then why doesn't he hit any better?"

Here is the top 11 on Torvik (sneaking Iowa State in there) from last year.



It went 4/4 with the top four teams in the Final Four. If you're good then you should be good all the time. And Houston, Duke, Auburn, and Florida were and they showed it by playing into April.

 

[Letterkenny]

All 5 starters are shooting over 50% from the floor through 4 games.

Buchanan - 70%
Jefferson - 67.5%
Lipsey - 57.7%
Toure - 55.2%
Momcilovic - 52.4%

Bench:
Pleta - 62.5%
Nelson - 43.5%
Mulder - 40%
Batemon - 33.3%

Also have basically a 2:1 Assist/turnover ratio as a team.

Say what you want about the outside shooting, but the offense as a whole as been very efficient so far.

 

[NATEizKING]

The KP ORtg uses last years data until mid-Jan is my understating. O hopefully keeps climbing.

 

[madguy30]

I certainly agree Jackson and Chatfield were not fits for the defense in the same way as Jones and Ward. The big has to have the lateral footspeed to stay in front of driving guards and wings.

Buchanan seems to have that ability. I'm just less sure on Pleta and Mulder. This is why my Devil's Advocate post was complimentary to Buchanan but bemoaned we're only going to have one of him.



I've always been skeptical of the they can "turn it on" arguments. The NBA (and NFL and MLB, for that matter) analytics literature has always pushed back on this notion, too. Whenever this point comes up, I'm always reminded of Brad Pitt saying, "If he hits so good, then why doesn't he hit any better?"

Here is the top 11 on Torvik (sneaking Iowa State in there) from last year.

View attachment 161265

It went 4/4 with the top four teams in the Final Four. If you're good then you should be good all the time. And Houston, Duke, Auburn, and Florida were and they showed it by playing into April.

Kinda wild: Florida scored 70-90ish points in every game accept two: 44 at Tennessee and 65 in the natty vs. Houston.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Kinda wild: Florida scored 70-90ish points in every game accept two: 44 at Tennessee and 65 in the natty vs. Houston.

I'm still shaking my head Houston didn't win that game.

Tech winning a football natty and Houston or BYU a basketball one this season would be a godsend for the Big 12 in the "perception battle." Even if I know the SEC slobberers will still find excuses.

The Cougars had a 93.4% chance and somehow fumbled it.

 

[VeloClone]

All 5 starters are shooting over 50% from the floor through 4 games.

Buchanan - 70%
Jefferson - 67.5%
Lipsey - 57.7%
Toure - 55.2%
Momcilovic - 52.4%

Bench:
Pleta - 62.5%
Nelson - 43.5%
Mulder - 40%
Batemon - 33.3%

Also have basically a 2:1 Assist/turnover ratio as a team.

Say what you want about the outside shooting, but the offense as a whole as been very efficient so far.

Also note that Batemon has a better 3pt% than overall percentage. He is 7 of 18 from 3 for .389 and 0 of 3 from 2. I left him out on purpose earlier because it is a really small sample size and he hasn't demonstrated yet that he can defend in the Big 12 which would limit his minutes if he struggles to defend Big 12 players without fouling.

Toure will definitely defend and will definitely play but he has an even smaller sample size with 3 of 9 for .333 across 4 games.

 

[Cyhig]

All 5 starters are shooting over 50% from the floor through 4 games.

Buchanan - 70%
Jefferson - 67.5%
Lipsey - 57.7%
Toure - 55.2%
Momcilovic - 52.4%

Bench:
Pleta - 62.5%
Nelson - 43.5%
Mulder - 40%
Batemon - 33.3%

Also have basically a 2:1 Assist/turnover ratio as a team.

Say what you want about the outside shooting, but the offense as a whole as been very efficient so far.

This is a good sign for a consistent offense. I always felt team that "live and die" by the three are often more inconsistent teams. Defense, rebounding, points in the paint generally lead to more consistent play and a style that can play well on the road.

As a team, Iowa State is making 35.6% of the three point attempts. This is more than adequate for this team

 

[not-the-manager]

I certainly agree Jackson and Chatfield were not fits for the defense in the same way as Jones and Ward. The big has to have the lateral footspeed to stay in front of driving guards and wings.

Buchanan seems to have that ability. I'm just less sure on Pleta and Mulder. This is why my Devil's Advocate post was complimentary to Buchanan but bemoaned we're only going to have one of him.



I've always been skeptical of the they can "turn it on" arguments. The NBA (and NFL and MLB, for that matter) analytics literature has always pushed back on this notion, too. Whenever this point comes up, I'm always reminded of Brad Pitt saying, "If he hits so good, then why doesn't he hit any better?"

Here is the top 11 on Torvik (sneaking Iowa State in there) from last year.

View attachment 161265

It went 4/4 with the top four teams in the Final Four. If you're good then you should be good all the time. And Houston, Duke, Auburn, and Florida were and they showed it by playing into April.

I'm once again going to split hairs to some degree and say the only issue I've seen with the defense thus far is sometimes the second help defender (helping the helper) is late, and an opposing player who wasn't really even working to get open gets left alone right by the hoop. But—and I think this may have been what @GoodOleDays was getting at—I think that is often due to on-ball defenders being overly aggressive and other guys overcommitting because the team is up by 30. So, I agree that 99.9% of players and teams can't just "turn it on," but I think Otz's track record suggests the team will be more sound/play better team defense once they've worked out some kinks this month and next, and start playing good teams regularly. In other words, I think they have to cut some things out, as opposed to start doing some things way better.

I think Mississippi State is more an exception than a rule as far as having a quick, experienced, scoring PG who can break a defense down. They scored 80, but I would argue that 1. they had a good shooting night from behind the arc and 2. as that game went on Iowa State started just selling out defensively (in basketball terms), making sure there was a help defender near Hubbard at all times, to the point that they were okay with leaving other guys wide open. If Iowa State's defense is lackluster in every game in Vegas, then we can start having a discussion about how it might lower their ceiling

 

[Sigmapolis]

I'm once again going to split hairs to some degree and say the only issue I've seen with the defense thus far is sometimes the second help defender (helping the helper) is late, and an opposing player who wasn't really even working to get open gets left alone right by the hoop. But—and I think this may have been what @GoodOleDays was getting at—I think that is often due to on-ball defenders being overly aggressive and other guys overcommitting because the team is up by 30. So, I agree that 99.9% of players and teams can't just "turn it on," but I think Otz's track record suggests the team will be more sound/play better team defense once they've worked out some kinks this month and next, and start playing good teams regularly. In other words, I think they have to cut some things out, as opposed to start doing some things way better.

I think Mississippi State is more an exception than a rule as far as having a quick, experienced, scoring PG who can break a defense down. They scored 80, but I would argue that 1. they had a good shooting night from behind the arc and 2. as that game went on Iowa State started just selling out defensively (in basketball terms), making sure there was a help defender near Hubbard at all times, to the point that they were okay with leaving other guys wide open. If Iowa State's defense is lackluster in every game in Vegas, then we can start having a discussion about how it might lower their ceiling

I agree with most of this analysis.

Beating Mississippi St. up was fun and encouraging but ultimately only one game. MSU on a neutral court (as much as the Pentagon is "neutral," sure seemed like it was way more cardinal and gold from my view on TV) is probably the weakest of the six high-major non-con games we have on the schedule.

The Bulldogs are actually projected as a bubble team right now.



The other five...

#5 St. John's (neutral but might lean Iowa St.)
#9 Creighton (same)
UNKNOWN VEGAS OPPONENT
#7 Iowa (a home game but, yes, they're trending up right now)
#2 Purdue (a true road game in a difficult environment)

Next week will tell us much about where we really are. I can't wait!