Amazing that there is only one (cupcake) game in the next 13 days. A great time to regroup and get better before the Vegas trip.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
He is going to prove to be very valuable. Strong, athletic, and smart. Really unsung. In fact, I could see him being Big12 6th man of the year.
That stretch between November 24 and December 11 is going to tell us a lot. I think getting out of there with 2 losses would be a win. 1 would be exceptional. 0 and we're chasing #1 in the country by that time.
Just for fun and to learn the first weekend locations for this season...
Buffalo = #4 Michigan | #10 Kentucky
Greenville, NC = #1 Duke | #7 Louisville
Oklahoma City = #1 Houston | #13 Iowa State
Philadelphia = #9 Connecticut | #14 St. John's
Portland = #5 BYU | #15 Tennessee
San Diego = #8 Arizona | #16 Vanderbilt
St. Louis = #2 Illinois | #6 Purdue
Tampa = #10 Florida | #11 Alabama
Competition for St. Louis is going to be murderous. OKC seems more likely. Probably gonna ship the #4 seeds out west because of the relative lack of competitive programs out there.
Regionals =
Chicago
Houston
San Jose, CA
Washington, DC
National championship = Indianapolis
Buffalo = #4 Michigan | #10 Kentucky
Greenville, NC = #1 Duke | #7 Louisville
Oklahoma City = #1 Houston | #13 Iowa State
Philadelphia = #9 Connecticut | #14 St. John's
Portland = #5 BYU | #15 Tennessee
San Diego = #8 Arizona | #16 Vanderbilt
St. Louis = #2 Illinois | #6 Purdue
Tampa = #10 Florida | #11 Alabama
Competition for St. Louis is going to be murderous. OKC seems more likely. Probably gonna ship the #4 seeds out west because of the relative lack of competitive programs out there.
Regionals =
Chicago
Houston
San Jose, CA
Washington, DC
National championship = Indianapolis
Big sequence here for seeding coming up.
Stay hot for the next month and a #1 seed becomes a real possibility.
2 or less loses over the next 6 games, counting the unknown opponent after Creighton, will be an accomplishment. It's great to be fully healthy entering this stretch.
Those win chances vs. SJ and Creighton seem kinda wild.
Not saying they can't win but that just seems high.
Not saying they can't win but that just seems high.
Agreed, goal should be going 7-2 the rest of our non-conference schedule. 8-1 would put us in real contention for a 1 seed going into conference play.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
Really not getting my hopes up for anything like a 1 seed just yet. I'm not saying they're not capable of something like that, just that we'll know a whole lot more about them by the time we play the Hawks
My hope remains the same as it was in the pre-season: we have six tough non-con games, 3-3 in those games is a good results.
This is probably an "Iowa sucks" joke that went over my head, but Iowa.
Why not?
Iowa St. is #13 on Torvik and wrecked a supposedly at-least decent SEC team.
St. John's is #12 and already lost to Alabama -- probably a better team than MSU, though.
Creighton is #28 and got wrecked by Gonzaga -- who then again might be a #1 seed.
I don't care what happened in the scrimmage without Tamin in the lineup.
Torvik gives us a 49% against St. John's and a 60% against Creighton.
So, Team Rankings might be bullish, but not unrealistically so.
I'm not really counting the scrimmages as I don't believe for a second that they were nothing more than timed, well, scrimmages.
I think I'd go with Torvik's numbers or closer.
Those two teams may have losses but ISU imo still seems to be in that 'how good are they?' mode which is a good thing to me, at least better than 'well they're really good so they should just win everything'.
Appreciate the breakdown. What you have noted makes perfect sense.
Personally though, I just do not think we are THAT good, nor do I believe we have that high of a ceiling. Luckily for the team and its prospects, my opinion means nothing.
Playing the Devil's Advocate here for a moment.
If this team ends up underwhelming... how would that disappointment happen?
Injuries. Could happen to anybody, but Lipsey and Jefferson are the most obvious ones. They're the two most important guys on the roster, and both of them have unfortunate injury histories.
The veteran reserve guards (Heise and Nelson) might be good role players. But they can't carry the backcourt without Tamin. He really is the straw that stirs the drink when it comes to this squad.
The freshmen guards hit a wall. Toure is already a strong defender but is unrefined offensively and lacks shooting. Good Big 12 coaches are going to scout him and figure out how to defend him. I'm far from giving up on Batemon, but he hasn't shone like a guy ready for big-time Big 12 minutes quite yet.
Momcilovic is just... himself. Good. But doesn't take "the next step." Still too streaky.
Buchanan seems like a good center. I just wish we had two of him (e.g., Rob Jones and Hason Ward back in the day). He's not going to play 40 minutes per night. Pleta is probably a big step down at this point, and I think Mulder is mostly on the team as a practice body and as five fouls on the bench.
A combination of injuries to Lipsey and Jefferson, Momcilovic not taking a development leap, dependable but not spectacular guard play outside Lipsey, and a lack of frontcourt depth leads the Cyclones to limp into a #7 seed and bow out in the first weekend in a bittersweet ending to Lipsey's senior year.
One thing I like to do is filter Barttorvik to start on 11/2 instead of 11/1, which filters out the pre-season projections. When you do that, below is what you get. Iowa State at #11 in the country and just behind Houston in the Big 12, with the #13 offense and #35 defense. I'm sure the offense/defense split will surprise some people. Link
I saw it on twitter, but didn't see it posted here, at least not in this thread. Kenpom's player of the year standings currently have Lipsey and Jefferson and #8 and #9.
I saw it on twitter, but didn't see it posted here, at least not in this thread. Kenpom's player of the year standings currently have Lipsey and Jefferson and #8 and #9.
The "filter out preseason projections and only use real data" feature is nice.
I just don't trust it THIS early in the season. There's not a lot of data to go on and not a lot of "crosspollination" between teams and conferences given the absolutely tiny sample sizes.
Let's get through the big Thanksgiving tournaments. Then I think it is more meaningful.
Just for argument's sake, I'll give my best take as the Devil's Advocate's Devil's Advocate and explore the team's ceiling, keeping in mind the numbers from my post just before this.
Lipsey and Jefferson continue to play like some of the best players in the country, and make up arguably the best duo in the country. With Toure taking on the toughest defensive assignments, Lipsey is able to have his first season playing at close to full health.
The offense maintains its current level--taking care of the ball with threats at every level. Shooting may be inconsistent, but when it's on, the offense is very nearly the best in the country. The defense picks up, returning to top-10 consistency--it maintains it's ability to force turnovers, but the newcomers get more used to the system and the rotations improve to limit open shots at the rim and perimeter.
Momcilovic doesn't need to become the go-to guy with Lipsey and Jefferson already holding those roles, but he hunts for shots when the team needs them and demands the attention of defenses to keep him from getting hot.
Toure never hits a real freshman wall, because most of his production is about effort, hustle, and scrappiness. Likewise, Buchanan perfects his role as a combination garbage man/rim runner/facilitator on offense. He doesn't have to shoot too many free throws, because teams are too scared to get dunked on by him (one can dream).
Heise, Nelson, and Batemon hold down their jobs as ideal role players, with complementary skill sets that give each of them a chance to shine over the course of the season. Batemon in particular continues to get more confident and has several big games scoring 15+ points off the bench. Pleta and Mulder also fill in to their roles, dominating the offensive glass and improving in the defensive scheme throughout the year.
Iowa State ends Houston's recent reign atop the Big 12 and returns to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2000.
Do I think this will happen? No. But I do think this team's ceiling is significantly higher than I thought coming into the season. A lot obviously depends on Tamin's health. I'm probably reading into the first games against bad opponents too much, but I feel like he's been more judicious about putting his body on the line. Even against bad teams in prior years, I felt like he ended up on the floor a ton in a way that he hasn't this year.
