2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[madguy30]

I'm still shaking my head Houston didn't win that game.

Tech winning a football Natty and Houston or BYU a basketball one this season would be a godsend for the Big 12 in the "perception battle." Even if I know the SEC slobberers will still find excuses.

The Cougars had a 93.4% chance and somehow fumbled it.

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Just checked and it was like 93%A with 15ish minutes left which really doesn't mean much as it was only a 10ish point lead. It dwindled to 60%ish pretty quickly as Florida came back.

Iirc Houston got impatient on offense and had hurried possessions while Florida just kept chipping away.

Imo unless it's a blue blood/brand conference notoriety doesn't seem to happen for the Big 12 and really even when KU won it, there didn't seem to much in the media.

If you watch ESPN enough you'd think the B1G has been THE basketball conference even though they've only had one champ 25 years ago.

 

[Sigmapolis]

If you watch ESPN enough you'd think the B1G has been THE basketball conference even though they've only had one champ 25 years ago.

I would appreciate a trigger warning before THAT Michigan St. team is brought up.

 

[bosco]

I'm once again going to split hairs to some degree and say the only issue I've seen with the defense thus far is sometimes the second help defender (helping the helper) is late, and an opposing player who wasn't really even working to get open gets left alone right by the hoop. But—and I think this may have been what @GoodOleDays was getting at—I think that is often due to on-ball defenders being overly aggressive and other guys overcommitting because the team is up by 30. So, I agree that 99.9% of players and teams can't just "turn it on," but I think Otz's track record suggests the team will be more sound/play better team defense once they've worked out some kinks this month and next, and start playing good teams regularly. In other words, I think they have to cut some things out, as opposed to start doing some things way better.

I think Mississippi State is more an exception than a rule as far as having a quick, experienced, scoring PG who can break a defense down. They scored 80, but I would argue that 1. they had a good shooting night from behind the arc and 2. as that game went on Iowa State started just selling out defensively (in basketball terms), making sure there was a help defender near Hubbard at all times, to the point that they were okay with leaving other guys wide open. If Iowa State's defense is lackluster in every game in Vegas, then we can start having a discussion about how it might lower their ceiling

This is a really good video about our defense. Gets in the weeds a little bit, but for someone who is naive about Bball X and O's I found it very enlightening on what and why we do certain things on defense.

 

[NENick]

All 5 starters are shooting over 50% from the floor through 4 games.

Buchanan - 70%
Jefferson - 67.5%
Lipsey - 57.7%
Toure - 55.2%
Momcilovic - 52.4%

Bench:
Pleta - 62.5%
Nelson - 43.5%
Mulder - 40%
Batemon - 33.3%

Also have basically a 2:1 Assist/turnover ratio as a team.

Say what you want about the outside shooting, but the offense as a whole as been very efficient so far.

Heise is so overlooked by our fan base.

 

[not-the-manager]

This is a really good video about our defense. Gets in the weeds a little bit, but for someone who is naive about Bball X and O's I found it very enlightening on what and why we do certain things on defense.

Thank you, this was great. I don't claim to be a smart basketball mind and didn't know any of that terminology. I only wish he would've talked a little slower ha

 

[Sigmapolis]

Heise is so overlooked by our fan base.

First impressions matter, and he frankly wasn't very good for the first few months.

He came on as the season went along as a 3&D wing, though.

Those assets are valuable no matter your system or your roster construction.

 

[KennyPratt42]

119.8 and 93.2 where our Kenpom offensive and defensive ratings at the end of last season. Our current ratings are 119.5 and 92.6. So am I correct that so far this year we have performed a little worse on offense than last season and a moderate amount better than last year on the defensive end? What do our ratings look like for this year when you remove last years data.

 

[VeloClone]

Heise is so overlooked by our fan base.

I am confident that there will be at least one game this season where every person walking out of Hilton (or another Big 12 arena) knows that ISU wouldn't have won the game if Nate Heise didn't play.

 

[NorthCyd]

I am confident that there will be at least one game this season where every person walking out of Hilton (or another Big 12 arena) knows that ISU wouldn't have won the game if Nate Heise didn't play.

Didn't that happen last year against Marquette with his defense on Kam Jones?

 

[GoodOleDays]

Didn't that happen last year against Marquette with his defense on Kam Jones?

As far as I'm concerned, Heise is our 3rd best 3pt shooter after Milan and Batemon. Maybe tied with healthy Tamin.

I saw something this summer about how Milan, Jefferson and Heise was one of the most efficient 3-man combos last season

 

[VeloClone]

First impressions matter, and he frankly wasn't very good for the first few months.

He came on as the season went along as a 3&D wing, though.

Those assets are valuable no matter your system or your roster construction.

I disagree. He wasn't hitting 3s but he was doing everything else.

In the first 13 games which is roughly the first two months he put up the following numbers beyond 3 point shooting:

19.0 min, 2p% .615, FT% .714, 2.4 r, 1.2 a, 1.0 s, 0.2 b, 0.5 to, 4.5 pts.

For a guy that was supposed to come in to complement the scorers really the only thing that he was asked to do that he wasn't doing was hitting 3s. He was bad at that at the time but he had a positive ratio in both a/to (2.1) and s/to (1.9) as well as hitting most of his shots inside the arc. Most of all, he was defending really well and taking care of the ball.

If all people were looking at was his 3 point percentage it wasn't good, but he offered a hell of a lot more than that.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I disagree. He wasn't hitting 3s but he was doing everything else.

In the first 13 games which is roughly the first two months he put up the following numbers beyond 3 point shooting:

19.0 min, 2p% .615, FT% .714, 2.4 r, 1.2 a, 1.0 s, 0.2 b, 0.5 to, 4.5 pts.

For a guy that was supposed to come in to complement the scorers really the only thing that he was asked to do that he wasn't doing was hitting 3s. He was bad at that at the time but he had a positive ratio in both a/to (2.1) and s/to (1.9) as well as hitting most of his shots inside the arc. Most of all, he was defending really well and taking care of the ball.

If all people were looking at was his 3 point percentage it wasn't good, but he offered a hell of a lot more than that.

I was a Heise defender at the time. "Give him a few weeks/months to adjust to the Big 12."

There is a large difference between "always a good defender but not a threat to create for himself or make threes, so good opposing defenses sag and help off him to make you play 4-on-5 when you're on offense" and "excellent two-way role player taking tough defensive assignments and spacing the floor."

I'm glad he seems to have fully found his footing.

Who knew how last year would have went for him had he just made a few easy threes to start and thus the "seal was broken" and the "pressure was off" and he could get back to just playing basketball.

 

[CascadeClone]

First impressions matter, and he frankly wasn't very good for the first few months.

He came on as the season went along as a 3&D wing, though.

Those assets are valuable no matter your system or your roster construction.

An older guy who knows what he's about will be really valuable down the stretch.
Might even be playing a little less early because they are seeing what the kids can do, and aren't as worried about Nate.

 

[GoodOleDays]

An older guy who knows what he's about will be really valuable down the stretch.
Might even be playing a little less early because they are seeing what the kids can do, and aren't as worried about Nate.

I've wondered why his offensive usage has been so low since. This could be one explanation beyond just what the games have presented

 

[CoachHines3]

 

[CHim]

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Can someone tell me about Braden Smith? I don't think I have watched him since Edey was playing and was hard to tell if he was good or a benefactor of playing with him. Is the noise around him deserved or overstated?

 

[Urbandale2013]

I was a Heise defender at the time. "Give him a few weeks/months to adjust to the Big 12."

There is a large difference between "always a good defender but not a threat to create for himself or make threes, so good opposing defenses sag and help off him to make you play 4-on-5 when you're on offense" and "excellent two-way role player taking tough defensive assignments and spacing the floor."

I'm glad he seems to have fully found his footing.

Who knew how last year would have went for him had he just made a few easy threes to start and thus the "seal was broken" and the "pressure was off" and he could get back to just playing basketball.

Yeah I don’t think it was an issue with effort and defense. He was just such a liability offensively to start that he was unplayable.

 

[CoachHines3]

Can someone tell me about Braden Smith? I don't think I have watched him since Edey was playing and was hard to tell if he was good or a benefactor of playing with him. Is the noise around him deserved or overstated?

idk but at 6 ft 170, im hoping toure and lipsey can bully his ass

 

[Sigmapolis]

bully his ass

 

[Malone]

Can someone tell me about Braden Smith? I don't think I have watched him since Edey was playing and was hard to tell if he was good or a benefactor of playing with him. Is the noise around him deserved or overstated?

He’s good. YouTube is your friend. That’ll be one of our guards’ toughest defensive assignments of the season.