2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[MJ271]

The "filter out preseason projections and only use real data" feature is nice.

I just don't trust it THIS early in the season. There's not a lot of data to go on and not a lot of "crosspollination" between teams and conferences given the absolutely tiny sample sizes.

Let's get through the big Thanksgiving tournaments. Then I think it is more meaningful.

Yeah, to be clear, I don't especially trust it either. But I do like it as a way to see how current performance differs from projections, especially in this world where teams are changing a lot from year to year.

For instance, I don't think many people would guess that the defense has been the relative weaker side so far, but it's true and gives me some optimism because we can be pretty confident that defensive improvement can offset any offensive drop-off.

The next 3 games, or the next 6 games, will absolutely tell us a lot about this team. (While also keeping in mind that what happens in November/December can look very different from what happens in March, going in either direction.)

 

[bosco]

Lipsey and Jefferson continue to play like some of the best players in the country, and make up arguably the best duo in the country.

More Jefferson operating in the post. Less Jefferson dribbling drive at the top of the key.

 

[Texbudman]

Those win chances vs. SJ and Creighton seem kinda wild.

Not saying they can't win but that just seems high.

Do we play three games in Vegas for sure or does it depend on winning one of the first two?

 

[CycloneNoah13]

Do we play three games in Vegas for sure or does it depend on winning one of the first two?

three no matter what. third opponent depends on results/scoring margin

 

[Texbudman]

three no matter what. third opponent depends on results/scoring margin

Thanks

 

[riceville98]

Do we play three games in Vegas for sure or does it depend on winning one of the first two?

We play 3 for sure, we just don't who we play or when we play for the 3nd one as it based on results.

 

[KennyPratt42]

This team is going to go as far as Tamin and Jefferson take them. They both have the ability to be first team all conference and second/third team all-Americans. If they both stay healthy and perform at those levels they are one of the best guard/forward duos in the country. The only player on the roster with the ability to elevate the ceiling for this team outside of those two is Momcilovic (the other four guards and Buchanan are all very solid role players this year that raise our floor). If he can take the step to being a double digit scorer every night and average in the high teens on the season we probably go from a top 35 to a top 15 offense. Add that to a top 5 defense and that is pretty rarified air.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

The "filter out preseason projections and only use real data" feature is nice.

I just don't trust it THIS early in the season. There's not a lot of data to go on and not a lot of "crosspollination" between teams and conferences given the absolutely tiny sample sizes.

Let's get through the big Thanksgiving tournaments. Then I think it is more meaningful.

Agreed.

I think this is a really good UNI team but do I think it's the 34th best team in the country with the 9th best defense? Probably not.

 

[VeloClone]

Yeah, to be clear, I don't especially trust it either. But I do like it as a way to see how current performance differs from projections, especially in this world where teams are changing a lot from year to year.

For instance, I don't think many people would guess that the defense has been the relative weaker side so far, but it's true and gives me some optimism because we can be pretty confident that defensive improvement can offset any offensive drop-off.

The next 3 games, or the next 6 games, will absolutely tell us a lot about this team. (While also keeping in mind that what happens in November/December can look very different from what happens in March, going in either direction.)

The offense being a higher rank than the D shouldn't be a terribly large surprise since the team has averaged north of 95 points a game.

 

[not-the-manager]

This team is going to go as far as Tamin and Jefferson take them. They both have the ability to be first team all conference and second/third team all-Americans. If they both stay healthy and perform at those levels they are one of the best guard/forward duos in the country. The only player on the roster with the ability to elevate the ceiling for this team outside of those two is Momcilovic (the other four guards and Buchanan are all very solid role players this year that raise our floor). If he can take the step to being a double digit scorer every night and average in the high teens on the season we probably go from a top 35 to a top 15 offense. Add that to a top 5 defense and that is pretty rarified air.

These are quibbles, but I would argue that if Toure can continue to be this much of a pest defensively and to be roughly this under-control handling the ball, he does raise the ceiling. obviously ifs. Also, while I don't think he'll be a reliable shooter, IF Batemon can hold his own defensively—which, in Otz's system, is the only way he'll get significant minutes in conference play—I think he could raise the ceiling too, as I think he's still a second threat to "go off," in addition to Momcilovic

 

[GoodOleDays]

These are quibbles, but I would argue that if Toure can continue to be this much of a pest defensively and to be roughly this under-control handling the ball, he does raise the ceiling. obviously ifs. Also, while I don't think he'll be a reliable shooter, IF Batemon can hold his own defensively—which, in Otz's system, is the only way he'll get significant minutes in conference play—I think he could raise the ceiling too, as I think he's still a second threat to "go off," in addition to Momcilovic

Yeah I'll be shocked if there's not a couple games this year that swing from loss to win because Batemon sparks a handful of 3s off the bench.

He's still getting comfortable at this level but he's shown the ability to get it going when the team is slumping. He's natural shooter and tenacious. Came right back fearless after that airball in the Mississippi St game

I somewhat struggle with parsing out floor vs ceiling. Ceiling seems to be "how good are our best players?" but when JJ, Lipsey and Momcilovic are 1, 2 and 3 on the scouting report, the 4th and later options dictate who we can beat

 

[Cyclonepride]

Playing the Devil's Advocate here for a moment.

If this team ends up underwhelming... how would that disappointment happen?

Injuries. Could happen to anybody, but Lipsey and Jefferson are the most obvious ones. They're the two most important guys on the roster, and both of them have unfortunate injury histories.

The veteran reserve guards (Heise and Nelson) might be good role players. But they can't carry the backcourt without Tamin. He really is the straw that stirs the drink when it comes to this squad.

The freshmen guards hit a wall. Toure is already a strong defender but is unrefined offensively and lacks shooting. Good Big 12 coaches are going to scout him and figure out how to defend him. I'm far from giving up on Batemon, but he hasn't shone like a guy ready for big-time Big 12 minutes quite yet.

Momcilovic is just... himself. Good. But doesn't take "the next step." Still too streaky.

Buchanan seems like a good center. I just wish we had two of him (e.g., Rob Jones and Hason Ward back in the day). He's not going to play 40 minutes per night. Pleta is probably a big step down at this point, and I think Mulder is mostly on the team as a practice body and as five fouls on the bench.

A combination of injuries to Lipsey and Jefferson, Momcilovic not taking a development leap, dependable but not spectacular guard play outside Lipsey, and a lack of frontcourt depth leads the Cyclones to limp into a #7 seed and bow out in the first weekend in a bittersweet ending to Lipsey's senior year.

Seems like our center might be 20 minutes of Buchanen, 10 minutes between Pleta and Mulder and 10 minutes of small ball. Depending on matchups, of course.

 

[KennyPratt42]

Yeah I'll be shocked if there's not a couple games this year that swing from loss to win because Batemon sparks a handful of 3s off the bench.

He's still getting comfortable at this level but he's shown the ability to get it going when the team is slumping. He's natural shooter and tenacious. Came right back fearless after that airball in the Mississippi St game

I somewhat struggle with parsing out floor vs ceiling. Ceiling seems to be "how good are our best players?" but when JJ, Lipsey and Momcilovic are 1, 2 and 3 on the scouting report, the 4th and later options dictate who we can beat

Its all semantics, but for me being able to swing a couple of games because of an outstanding performance is raising the floor of a team. The more good rotation players you have that can do this, means your worst case record is a couple of wins higher. Raising the ceiling, for me, is more about how good your team's top level performance is and how consistently they can do it. Which usually is most dictated by your top 2-3 guys.

 

[MJ271]

The offense being a higher rank than the D shouldn't be a terribly large surprise since the team has averaged north of 95 points a game.

Definitely not surprising for those paying attention. But I feel like I've seen a lot more discussion about improving shooting or offensive consistency than anything about defense.

Also, I'm not sure a lot of fans realize how hard it is to score 90+ points, even against terrible teams. Whenever strength of schedule is brought up when comparing teams, there's always a lot of implication that any tournament team could score that many points against bad teams if they really wanted to. As someone who watched Iowa State score 47 points against Jackson State in Otz's first season, I can definitely attest to that not being true.

 

[GoodOleDays]

Its all semantics, but for me being able to swing a couple of games because of an outstanding performance is raising the floor of a team. The more good rotation players you have that can do this, means your worst case record is a couple of wins higher. Raising the ceiling, for me, is more about how good your team's top level performance is and how consistently they can do it. Which usually is most dictated by your top 2-3 guys.

That makes sense. I was thinking about it like that before but I probably had been overthinking it... Kinda like when you repeat a word too much and it stops sounding like a real word.

Our ceiling depends on JJ, Tamin and Milan being good enough against other teams best guys to give our team an advantage whether that's them scoring or opening up shots for others.

Somewhat of a side thought but related, I think this team's best offensive advantage is passing at the 4 and 5 with JJ and Buchanan. Buchanan's garbage man role is more of a floor support, but his passing to 4 other guys cutting and shooting could elevate the offensive ceiling maybe even more-so than if he was a good post scorer

 

[Peter]

Offense will struggle down the road because of 3 point shooting IMO. Teams will pack the paint and make our guys shoot over the top. Jefferson and Lipsey need to hit mid 30s percentage consistently and we need Heise and Batemon to let it rip off the bench. MM has got to get more consistent too. He can’t go 8/10 one game and then like 0/16 the next four. Not going to work against real teams.

 

[VeloClone]

Offense will struggle down the road because of 3 point shooting IMO. Teams will pack the paint and make our guys shoot over the top. Jefferson and Lipsey need to hit mid 30s percentage consistently and we need Heise and Batemon to let it rip off the bench. MM has got to get more consistent too. He can’t go 8/10 one game and then like 0/16 the next four. Not going to work against real teams.

Question - is one of those 8/10 games against Houston?

 

[GoodOleDays]

Offense will struggle down the road because of 3 point shooting IMO. Teams will pack the paint and make our guys shoot over the top. Jefferson and Lipsey need to hit mid 30s percentage consistently and we need Heise and Batemon to let it rip off the bench. MM has got to get more consistent too. He can’t go 8/10 one game and then like 0/16 the next four. Not going to work against real teams.

I'd really like to see a parsed out KenPom half-court offense efficiency, transition efficiency etc.

To your point, the metrics loved our Mississippi State game, but part of that was 26 turnovers. We can force turnovers and score a ton against any team that doesn't have great ball security, but I don't think we'll really know how good this offense is until next week.

I hope to see Heise shoot more and Batemon earn more minutes so we can space in the half court. I love Nelson, but I'm not sure his game works in the half court without shooters on the floor, like what happened to Gilbert's scoring when Milan went out last year.

 

[dahliaclone]

Definitely not surprising for those paying attention. But I feel like I've seen a lot more discussion about improving shooting or offensive consistency than anything about defense.

Also, I'm not sure a lot of fans realize how hard it is to score 90+ points, even against terrible teams. Whenever strength of schedule is brought up when comparing teams, there's always a lot of implication that any tournament team could score that many points against bad teams if they really wanted to. As someone who watched Iowa State score 47 points against Jackson State in Otz's first season, I can definitely attest to that not being true.

He loves his defense (and so do I). And while that defense has remained consistent every year, the offense is now matching or at least making huge strides. I think, and I might be wrong, in his first year when we beat LSU and Wisconsin in the tourney, we didn't score 60 points in either game. And I think we didn't score 40 against Okie State and had like 40 in a blowout loss in KC to Texas Tech.

 

[Sigmapolis]

He loves his defense (and so do I). And while that defense has remained consistent every year, the offense is now matching or at least making huge strides. I think, and I might be wrong, in his first year when we beat LSU and Wisconsin in the tourney, we didn't score 60 points in either game. And I think we didn't score 40 against Okie State and had like 40 in a blowout loss in KC to Texas Tech.

Defensive efficiency actually was significantly worse last year compared to the rest of the TJ era.



Still way better than Hoiberg and Prohm teams but not as good as the first three squads.