2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[cyclones500]

Root for the following today:

Priority 1:
Alabama
UCLA

Priority 2:
Illinois
Michigan
Louisville

—> At least one of P1 and ISU remains high on 3 line.

—> None in P2 jump with a win, but the sooner they’re out, the less chance of piling add’l quality L’s

Oregon & Arizona might climb with additional win(s), but I don’t see jumping to 3.

 

[benman82]

Death, taxes, Duke getting to play home games the first weekend.

I hope St John's fans enjoy their time in Wichita. LOL.

St John's will be in Providence ~150 miles away. The nothinglike.net site had St Johns NY address confused with St Johns River College in Florida lol

 

[1UNI2ISU]

St John's will be in Providence ~150 miles away. The nothinglike.net site had St Johns NY address confused with St Johns River College in Florida lol

Well that's disappointing.

I guess they would the highest seeded team in the northeast.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Location draft time!



Cleveland = #6 Michigan St. / #7 Tennessee

Denver = #12 Arizona / #13 Wisconsin

Lexington = #1 Auburn / #5 Alabama

Milwaukee = #10 Kentucky / #11 Iowa St.

Providence = #8 St. John's / #14 Maryland

Raleigh = #2 Duke / #4 Florida

Seattle = #15 Purdue / #16 Texas A&M

Wichita = #3 Houston / #9 Texas Tech

 

[KennyPratt42]

One thing to note is the difference between the results-based metrics and the predictive metrics. Kind of points to that we are "better" than our results would indicate (eg our offensive/defensive rating metrics are better than our win/loss metrics). It also explains why some people think we are, or could be, a 4 seed. While others think we are one of the top 3 seeds that was close to getting a 2 seed.

 

[Sigmapolis]

View attachment 145226

One thing to note is the difference between the results-based metrics and the predictive metrics. Kind of points to that we are "better" than our results would indicate (eg our offensive/defensive rating metrics are better than our win/loss metrics). It also explains why some people think we are, or could be, a 4 seed. While others think we are one of the top 3 seeds that was close to getting a 2 seed.

We lost a lot more close games than we won.

The lack of "clutch" is indicated by that spread.

Flip Auburn, at Arizona, and home against BYU to wins and suddenly this happens --





I also flipped Dayton and Colorado on Maui to North Carolina and Memphis. Losing to Auburn was an "L" on its own but also cost the opportunity for two more good non-conference games.

Instead we were stuck with two trash ones.

 

[not-the-manager]

We lost a lot more close games than we won.

The lack of "clutch" is indicated by that spread.

Flip Auburn, at Arizona, and home against BYU to wins and suddenly this happens --

View attachment 145230

View attachment 145231

I also flipped Dayton and Colorado on Maui to North Carolina and Memphis. Losing to Auburn was an "L" on its own but also cost the opportunity for two more good non-conference games.

Instead we were stuck with two trash ones.

This is part of why I'm still optimistic. ISU has the second-lowest kenpom Luck rating among the top 10. While bad breaks aren't the only reason you lose close games, the Love shot is objectively a highly improbable bad-break, and a tip-in against Auburn was a hinge point that could go your way in the future. Not to mention catching KSU at the worst possible time (granted, could happen again in a single-elimination tournament) and failing to turn 29 BYU turnovers into three or four more points

 

[cyclones500]

We lost a lot more close games than we won.

The lack of "clutch" is indicated by that spread.

Flip Auburn, at Arizona, and home against BYU to wins and suddenly this happens --

View attachment 145230

View attachment 145231

I also flipped Dayton and Colorado on Maui to North Carolina and Memphis. Losing to Auburn was an "L" on its own but also cost the opportunity for two more good non-conference games.

Instead we were stuck with two trash ones.

Could you update this with addition of the "near-loss" at Tech? (Keep all other flips the same).

 

[4theCYcle]

We lost a lot more close games than we won.

The lack of "clutch" is indicated by that spread.

Flip Auburn, at Arizona, and home against BYU to wins and suddenly this happens --

View attachment 145230

View attachment 145231

I also flipped Dayton and Colorado on Maui to North Carolina and Memphis. Losing to Auburn was an "L" on its own but also cost the opportunity for two more good non-conference games.

Instead we were stuck with two trash ones.

I was wondering this right before I came across this post. Thought to myself, wonder if they'd be a 2 seed if they pulled those close games against Auburn and Arizona....

 

[Cyclonepride]

I was wondering this right before I came across this post. Thought to myself, wonder if they'd be a 2 seed if they pulled those close games against Auburn and Arizona....

Honestly, if we had beat Arizona, I think we beat Kansas State and possibly win at KU. That game had one ***** of a hangover for this team.

 

[clone52]

View attachment 145226

One thing to note is the difference between the results-based metrics and the predictive metrics. Kind of points to that we are "better" than our results would indicate (eg our offensive/defensive rating metrics are better than our win/loss metrics). It also explains why some people think we are, or could be, a 4 seed. While others think we are one of the top 3 seeds that was close to getting a 2 seed.

As it turned out, Iowa State had a really weak conference schedule this year.

 

[CascadeClone]

Curious about who we want / don't want as potential 2nd round opponents?

of the current 6-seed-ish teams, anyone scare you? Any paper tigers? Good/bad matchups?

 

[VeloClone]

As it turned out, Iowa State had a really weak conference schedule this year.

ISU is not alone in that among potential high seeds...

NET non-con SOS:
ISU 94
TTU 297
Florida 264
Tenn 128
Maryland 326!
St. John's 166
Mizzou 221
Wisky 113
BYU 313

 

[clone52]

ISU is not alone in that among potential high seeds...

NET non-con SOS:
ISU 94
TTU 297
Florida 264
Tenn 128
Maryland 326
St. John's 166
Mizzou 221
Wisky 113
BYU 313

I said conference schedule. The teams they played twice were 3, 6, 10, 14 and 16.

 

[VeloClone]

I said conference schedule. The teams they played twice were 3, 6, 10, 14 and 16.

Reading comprehension...

Sorry, dude. I just read posts above about how our non-con was blasted by losing in the first round in Maui and had non-con in my head.

 

[clone52]

Reading comprehension...

Sorry, dude. I just read posts above about how our non-con was blasted by losing in the first round in Maui and had non-con in my head.

No problem. Weaker conference schedule won't be a huge factor but it is a little bit

 

[Cyclonepride]

As it turned out, Iowa State had a really weak conference schedule this year.

Not sure I agree. We played 1st and 2nd place teams at their place with no return and went home and home with 4th and 6th. We maybe got some breaks too, but the above offsets that IMO.

 

[KennyPratt42]

As it turned out, Iowa State had a really weak conference schedule this year.

We are #22 in the country for in-conference strength of schedule, these numbers do take into account conference tournament. We have been #1 in the country in that stat the last two years so its certainly down some, but far from being really weak.

NCAA College Basketball In-Conference SOS Rankings

NCAA College Basketball In-Conference SOS Rankings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAB computer power rankings.

www.teamrankings.com

 

[clone52]

Not sure I agree. We played 1st and 2nd place teams at their place with no return and went home and home with 4th and 6th. We maybe got some breaks too, but the above offsets that IMO.

Maybe I am off a bit, but the fact that we only played 2 other NCAA tourney teams twice seems low.

Doing math, though, maybe that's not unusual.

 

[VeloClone]

Maybe I am off a bit, but the fact that we only played 2 other NCAA tourney teams twice seems low.

Doing math, though, maybe that's not unusual.

Playing NCAA teams only on their home floors is worse than getting a chance to get one back at home.