As if they don't adjust their reasoning based on who they want in specific spots.
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
A lot of the teams on the lower end of the 3 seed line and 4 line are still playing (Wisconsin, Arizona, Purdue, Maryland) so a 4 seed is still a distinct possibility for Iowa State.
Wisconsin shoots a worse 3P% than ISU,,,and is currently shooting 60%. I'm not saying it's impossible that committee members lose their minds, but if they're watching or watch later I highly doubt they'll swap teams on a seed line because of a hot shooting day. Besides, UCLA's already beaten Wisconsin. If today is truly just ~1/30th of the season as some committee members claim, this alone won't be seismic. I like T3 and similar accounts, but ultimately they're just making educated predictions of committee decisions. I couldn't care less about whatever they think about ISU's health
Hard to know.
You're right the guys are human. As much as it hurt us chuckleheads on a college sports board here, I am sure it was devastating for the actual team. Stuff they'll never forget or get over.
But they were going to be exhausted after the Arizona game and trip home (remember they were on a doubleheader road trip to Tempe and Tucson) even with the elation of the 2-0 slate.
K-State was really playing out of its mind at the time.
We'll never know, but there's reasons to believe they were due for a letdown even without the OT loss.
You’re then not believing anything the committee has said and done the last two years in regards to movement and wins in league tourneys.
Can we be a 4? Yup. But if committee stays to their word it’s not because of tourney results.
Teams certainly move up and down spots depending on conference tourney results. I know it works that way with the bubble especially. Not so much on the 1-2 seed lines but if teams continue stacking up Quad 1 wins, it has to mean something.
Bottom line, it's not a good thing that Iowa State is sitting at home while these teams in the 3-4 seed area have Quad 1 opportunities left. I wouldn't say that the seeds are already set as of today.
If Iowa State and Wisconsin, for instance, are pretty much neck and neck, Wisconsin winning against UCLA, then potentially Michigan State would give them a bump I'd think.
In any event, it might not matter much if Gilbert and Lipsey aren't healthy. It appears that Lipsey might be ready to go but Gilbert is a little more concerning.
I take a healthy Iowa State up against anybody but the timing of these injuries just really sucks. The team never had much of a chance to play as a fully healthy unit this season.
I think we would have alot more to worry about if it wasn't for that Texas A&M loss yesterday to bubble team that is 6-12 in conference. I'm not convinced the committee will change seeding much based on conference tournaments, but if they do, it will be Texas A&M getting punished, not Iowa State.
The actual bracketing itself, after selection, has been done by a computer for years. Helps with geography and bracketing rules in a much more efficient way than humans ever could.
That's why the 'they create stories and matchups' thing is so absurd.
Honestly, while I do think people overvalue tournament results, I also don't trust the committee's stated reasoning either. They pretty regularly do what they want and create rationale after.
I believe I also read that of the 12 committee members, there are 7 new members this year, so their decision-making process might not match what's been done the last few years.
Good points. Results in tournaments definitely matter, and a specific reason you stated (ISU being done vs. UW being able to add quality wins) in our situation, it could make a difference in seed placement/line.
I think there's some assumption among fans that (1) single conference tournament games should matter MORE than any other individual win throughout the season (2) are ignored entirely (3) attaining a conference tournament title in itself is a bonus.
When it comes to selection and seeding, I just view it as an extension of the regular season.
Whether they do or not, Iowa State needs to come out and say Gilbert & Lipsey will both play in the big dance. Couldn't hurt our chances of the selection committee keeping ISU as a 3 seed.
Committee changes their mind from team to team let alone year to year. They pick different criteria each year and for each team
NET update: ISU picked up a Q1 win, and lost a Q1 win overnight.
The good:
-without playing, Baylor moved from 31 to 30. Thanks to UConn’s loss to Creighton dropping them from 29 to 32. VCU is right behind them at 31 and they play today, so it will be one to watch.
The bad:
-Kstate is back to 76, thanks to St Joe’s (74) and George Mason (73) winning. The good news is they play eachother today, so someone will probably drop and bump Kstate back up to 75. That will give ISU another quad 1 win and take away a quad 3 loss.
It feels a little silly to follow, since the decision the committee makes won’t even be made with final data, since they have been meeting the last few days, and only minor tweaks are made Sunday afternoon. But it’s still fun to follow!
The good:
-without playing, Baylor moved from 31 to 30. Thanks to UConn’s loss to Creighton dropping them from 29 to 32. VCU is right behind them at 31 and they play today, so it will be one to watch.
The bad:
-Kstate is back to 76, thanks to St Joe’s (74) and George Mason (73) winning. The good news is they play eachother today, so someone will probably drop and bump Kstate back up to 75. That will give ISU another quad 1 win and take away a quad 3 loss.
It feels a little silly to follow, since the decision the committee makes won’t even be made with final data, since they have been meeting the last few days, and only minor tweaks are made Sunday afternoon. But it’s still fun to follow!
What odds can i get on isu and mizzou being matched as 3-6?
Maybe the storylines are just coincidences, but sure seems like it happens A LOT
When they place teams in their closest region along the seed line, there are bound to be coincidences. Iowa State could easily see Drake or Oklahoma as the 11 in their region. Or a rematch with Illinois as the 6 seed.
Yup.
Plus the SEC getting 13 is going to make it so there are very, very few ways to bracket.
People also forget one of the principles is to keep teams as close to home as possible. It was a no brainer that Drake was going to end up in Omaha last year when there was a spot for a 10 seed available.
