2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[VeloClone]

This has all changed in the last ~week, but I think the only things that matter for ISU from here on out are 1. do you beat your remaining Q1 opponents and 2. how does Kansas State fare? None of the other teams vying for 2 seeds have losses nearly as bad as KSU. I've already ranted about what I think of MSU, but in addition to leading their conference, their brand/perception in the media will bolster their case for a 2. Kentucky is hurt and still has to play Auburn and Missouri. ISU beat Tech and plays Arizona again. So, if we slot in the top 6 + MSU, you absolutely still have a shot at a 2. But if KSU tanks you could be SOL (and, it goes without saying, you have to beat them the second time). Wisconsin is still sneaky to me, they're kind of getting killed by the media because they were expected to win Saturday, but Oregon isn't actually a bad loss

Yes, KSU (NET 81) sliding into <76 territory would make the home loss to them a Q2b loss and a win on their floor a Q1b win. If NET 76 or worse those two games are Q3 and Q2a.

By the same token I would love it if CU could eake out another win. They are currently at NET 94. It they can stay better than 101 our wins against them are Q2a, Q2b, Q3. If they go over 100 they become Q2b, Q3, Q3.

 

[bosco]

This has all changed in the last ~week, but I think the only things that matter for ISU from here on out are 1. do you beat your remaining Q1 opponents and 2. how does Kansas State fare? None of the other teams vying for 2 seeds have losses nearly as bad as KSU. I've already ranted about what I think of MSU, but in addition to leading their conference, their brand/perception in the media will bolster their case for a 2. Kentucky is hurt and still has to play Auburn and Missouri. ISU beat Tech and plays Arizona again. So, if we slot in the top 6 + MSU, you absolutely still have a shot at a 2. But if KSU tanks you could be SOL (and, it goes without saying, you have to beat them the second time). Wisconsin is still sneaky to me, they're kind of getting killed by the media because they were expected to win Saturday, but Oregon isn't actually a bad loss

So if our seeding is dependant on KSU's net ranking do we throw that game intentionally?

 

[VeloClone]

So if our seeding is dependant on KSU's net ranking do we throw that game intentionally?

No, an additional loss - even if Q1b - is worse than a Q2b loss becoming Q3.

 

[not-the-manager]

So if our seeding is dependant on KSU's net ranking do we throw that game intentionally?

@VeloClone is right, you have to avenge the loss. KSU *could* win its next three. If they did, hopefully they'd move up enough in the NET that your loss wouldn't look as bad and your win would look better than it otherwise would've. Of course, in that scenario UCF and Colorado could drop below their magic numbers (in ISU's eyes), but I'd take that tradeoff since ISU didn't lose to those teams. While ISU's "marquee" non-con wins have looked worse and worse over the course of the season, I'd argue the only real stain on their résumé is KSU. I can't read minds and am talking out of my you-know-what, but for some reason I think if you beat KSU the committee—which has a lot of data to digest and a lot of similar teams to compare—will lump that loss and Kansas into a "Well, they haven't really been healthy since January" bucket and move on. Of course, even if you beat KSU, if the committee decides you and, say, Wisconsin are the exact same team on paper, that other team/s likely won't have a loss as bad as you, even if you're 1-1 against, so...buckle up

 

[alexssdean12]

Yep, was thinking the same. A&M has fallen off a bit, Purdue has fallen off the map of a 2 seed possibility, Texas Tech really needed that win against Houston to have a chance at a 2, Wisconsin lost to Oregon and that's it really.

You've got Auburn, Duke, Florida, Alabama, Houston and Tennessee as a strong top 6, very strong top 6, and virtual locks as 1 and 2 seeds then you have.... Michigan State who has a weak OOC resume, Iowa State, Texas A&M and ??? St. John's? Eh, weak overall resume for the next 2 spots. The Cyclones are really in a great spot for a 2 seed even if they have one loss to a good team although a loss would muddy the waters.

Looks like for the final two, 2 seeds it will be between ISU, Wisconsin, A&M, and Michigan State. We are all within .20 of each other on bracket matrix

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I think there's WAY too much focus on the K-State loss. Every committee is different but the trend has been that good wins matter much more than a bad loss.

 

[dafarmer]

Hawkins will be back against ISU, even if he is on a gurney.

 

[VeloClone]

I think there's WAY too much focus on the K-State loss. Every committee is different but the trend has been that good wins matter much more than a bad loss.

Unfortunately ISU's really good wins continue to atrophy. ISU is noiw 1-4 in Q1a. Luckily they are 5-1 in Q1b but the Baylor win is one spot from dropping out of Q1 all together.

 

[AlaCyclone]

Berman had several votes on his ballot that marked him as the extreme/outlier compared to every other voter. Being the oddball for one team doesn't seem like a big deal but if you are way off on multiple teams maybe you should get your vote pulled.

Actually, having outliers is good and the point of voting. If everybody automatically had to vote the same way, what's the point of voting?

 

[Sigmapolis]

Actually, having outliers is good and the point of voting. If everybody automatically had to vote the same way, what's the point of voting?

At this point I'd be fine if the human polls just quietly retired.

Let competing computer models do their job better.

Put the KenPom or BPI number next to teams on the score bug not their AP rank.

 

[CascadeClone]

If you take the typical KenPom champ criteria, and combine it with the Week 6 AP Top 12 criteria... your national champ will be one of these 5 teams:

Tenn, ISU, Duke, Auburn, Florida

(Houston wasn't in the AP Top 12 that week)

NOW would be a great time for ISU to get everything all in synch.

 

[mj4cy]

It's a fair ranking but damn we've had bad luck this year.

While we played like poo last night, just sucks we have this team with the highest ceiling since 2000 and we have had Milan, Tamin, Cujo, and Keshon all miss significant time or have had to play hurt. On top of that you have the Auburn tip in, Love miracle, and scheduling every other top team on the road minus BYU. Then you have the cylinder....the list goes on.

Hope the scales tip in our favor in a month.

 

[Sigmapolis]

 

[dirtyninety]

Siri, will Iowa State Men's basketball win the NCAA men's basketball tournament?

Grok, when will the Purge start?

 

[Sigmapolis]

Get your raincoats ready to go, Cyclone fans.



Cleveland = #6 Florida / #7 Michigan St.

Denver = #11 Arizona / #13 Texas Tech

Lexington = #1 Auburn / #4 Alabama

Milwaukee = #8 Wisconsin / #10 Kentucky

Providence = #12 Maryland / #14 Texas A&M

Raleigh = #2 Duke / #5 Tennessee

Seattle = #15 Michigan / #16 Iowa St.

Wichita = #3 Houston / #9 Missouri

Hangin' on by a thread for that #4 seed now. Might be dumped on Providence or Seattle.

 

[hawksuck75]

Get your raincoats ready to go, Cyclone fans.

View attachment 144052

Cleveland = #6 Florida / #7 Michigan St.

Denver = #11 Arizona / #13 Texas Tech

Lexington = #1 Auburn / #4 Alabama

Milwaukee = #8 Wisconsin / #10 Kentucky

Providence = #12 Maryland / #14 Texas A&M

Raleigh = #2 Duke / #5 Tennessee

Seattle = #15 Michigan / #16 Iowa St.

Wichita = #3 Houston / #9 Missouri

Hangin' on by a thread for that #4 seed now. Might be dumped on Providence or Seattle.

I think Denver is still in play if we finish strong. Need to beat AZ Saturday and stay ahead of them and Texas Tech.

 

[NoCreativity]

I think Denver is still in play if we finish strong. Need to beat AZ Saturday and stay ahead of them and Texas Tech.

Lunardi still has us as a 2 as of last night. People are forgetting the committee should take our injuries into account. Key word is "should" though.

 

[not-the-manager]

Lunardi still has us as a 2 as of last night. People are forgetting the committee should take our injuries into account. Key word is "should" though.

That's as of Tuesday morning. He tweeted yesterday and had them as the first 3 seed. That implies they could still play themselves into a 2, though his brackets haven't ended up being very accurate for a while now. It does seem like—for now—the media is giving them a pass for injuries, so hopefully the committee is as kind

 

[NYCYFan]

2 seed is still in play IMO. After the obvious top 6 teams and probably Michigan State, it's WIDE open. A&M, Purdue and Iowa State have fallen off, Wisconsin took a loss to a middle of the road Big 10 team at home, Texas Tech is probably the team with the inside track but outside of the monster Houston win there isn't a lot of meat on their schedule (weak OOC), St. John's is playing the best of this group but the Big East is weak this year. It's still there for the taking if Iowa State wins out. 3-4 is the more likely seed but I don't think 2 can be ruled out yet.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Get your raincoats ready to go, Cyclone fans.

View attachment 144052

Cleveland = #6 Florida / #7 Michigan St.

Denver = #11 Arizona / #13 Texas Tech

Lexington = #1 Auburn / #4 Alabama

Milwaukee = #8 Wisconsin / #10 Kentucky

Providence = #12 Maryland / #14 Texas A&M

Raleigh = #2 Duke / #5 Tennessee

Seattle = #15 Michigan / #16 Iowa St.

Wichita = #3 Houston / #9 Missouri

Hangin' on by a thread for that #4 seed now. Might be dumped on Providence or Seattle.

Whose guess is that? Huge overreaction unless it assumes that more losses will stack up.