2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

CoachHines3

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BYU looks like basically the same team as last year. Think Iowa, but better. They just let it fly and if they're hot, they can beat anyone. Have to keep them playing in the half court and grind them down.
Via KenPom they virtually are the same AdjO/AdjD wise

Last Year: AdjO - 14 --- AdjD - 60

This year: AdjO - 12 --- AdjD - 69 (NICE)
 

Sigmapolis

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Thanks, Sig!

You're welcome.

I just usually prefer some sort of forward-looking methodology to rank the teams before slotting them into their cities. Torvik does this process. I think most of the Bracket Matrix participants seed things "as is" right now, which might miss say Iowa St. has a pretty soft schedule from here on out.

But these exercises have different purposes, so I'm happy to help.
 

AlaCyclone

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I'd rather Iowa State play in Denver (which is in a Big XII State with easier tickets and more teams from even farther away) than in Milwaukee (which is in a B1G East City in a B1G State and a much tougher ticket for Cyclone fans). Neither are close enough or far enough away to make a serious distance impact, but the intangibles definitely favor Denver to me for the Cyclones. Just my onion.
 

not-the-manager

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If MSU jumps ISU they will most likely land in Cleveland instead of Milwaukee. Still to early to call imo. Wisky will be favored in 3 of last 4. Purdue needs to win at home on Friday against UCLA. They still have to go to Illinois on the final day of reg season as well.
I'm going to sidetrack the discussion by using this as an excuse to say that, while I wouldn't mind if ISU ends up in Denver, it'd irk me if MSU hopped ISU for Milwaukee. The two are virtually identical on kenpom right now, and MSU's recent performances look much better than ISU's, but based on what I've seen MSU is far, far less skilled. Like, I think ISU would beat them fairly easily on a neutral, and I'm generally loath to play hypotheticals. MSU has four good guards, which is a rarity and a competitive advantage a lot of the time. problem for them is ISU's guards are flat out better than three of theirs, and ISU's bigs are far more impactful.

Regarding BYU, others have made very good points. I'd just say that yet another reason the Houston game may end up having been valuable—despite a loss—could be (not a given) that it reminded this ISU roster it can compete against the best of the best while playing "old"-school Otzball. Even in wins (ASU, Cincinnati, Colorado last week) they have gotten away from it for stretches, and when the offense is settling and-or pressing, the defense can be pretty bad. You will not out-BYU BYU, but I firmly believe you can neutralize them by imposing your will, despite last season's struggles against a similar style
 

madguy30

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Via KenPom they virtually are the same AdjO/AdjD wise

Last Year: AdjO - 14 --- AdjD - 60

This year: AdjO - 12 --- AdjD - 69 (NICE)

I haven't watched them much this year but last year they were also a bad match up with essentially a bunch of 2/3 type of guys that made it difficult for ISU's smaller guards.

The D isn't great but anyone can wratchet it up for a game or two after riding out their offense.
 

CychiatricWard

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Fell one spot to 9 in the AP.

Not to upset with that at all. Highest ranked 6 loss team with plenty of opportunities ahead of us. Go 2-0 this week and will rightfully stay put or jump depending on others around us.
 

cycloneman003

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I'd rather Iowa State play in Denver (which is in a Big XII State with easier tickets and more teams from even farther away) than in Milwaukee (which is in a B1G East City in a B1G State and a much tougher ticket for Cyclone fans). Neither are close enough or far enough away to make a serious distance impact, but the intangibles definitely favor Denver to me for the Cyclones. Just my onion.
There are a lot of Iowa State fans up here in Wisconsin and super close proximity to Chicagoland based fans as well. The big damper on ticket availability is if Wisconsin is in Milwaukee too.

Best case IMO (and I’m admittedly biased because I want the clones up here!) would be Milwaukee and Wisconsin tanking down the stretch and not being placed there.
 

Cyclonepride

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Just saw a Big 12 post that we came in at #9 this week (which is fair), but also noticed (not sure why I didn't before) that the other top 3 in the Big 12 teams were all road games for us. At least we get a return visit from Arizona and catch the 5th ranked team (BYU) only at home.
 

mj4cy

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Just saw a Big 12 post that we came in at #9 this week (which is fair), but also noticed (not sure why I didn't before) that the other top 3 in the Big 12 teams were all road games for us. At least we get a return visit from Arizona and catch the 5th ranked team (BYU) only at home.
It's a fair ranking but damn we've had bad luck this year.
 

madguy30

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I'd rather Iowa State play in Denver (which is in a Big XII State with easier tickets and more teams from even farther away) than in Milwaukee (which is in a B1G East City in a B1G State and a much tougher ticket for Cyclone fans). Neither are close enough or far enough away to make a serious distance impact, but the intangibles definitely favor Denver to me for the Cyclones. Just my onion.

I kind of like the aspect of getting out of the area a bit maybe to limit distractions and that pressure to do well in the same region (midwest).

And, there's plenty of ISU fans in Colorado that would get to Denver aside from it being a pretty easy trip.
 

Frak

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I see your point about Jefferson, and it's a good one in general. Nice to have Jefferson's defensive versatility among the Bigs. However, my bigger point was a concern about us continuing our hard trap defense. We love to trap the corner (coffin corner) and for good reason, right, and we also hard trap different teams at different places on the court depending on their personnel. It's worked well and in general, I've been so impressed with TJ and staff. For example, we were trapping the outer thirds of the court it seemed like a fair amount against Houston. We disrupted their offense a bit and they kind of settled into just iso ball and let Cryer (mostly) or Uzan just go one-on-one to try and get a shot down the stretch. That's a testament to our defense. With BYU, their players are good at ball movement and good shooters who like to space it, probably better than UH in my opinion, so I don't know if that strategy will work against them.

I don't think the switching is as important - its whether we continue our hard trap defense and they beat it creating a 4 on 3 on the other side and a free three pointer for one of their shooters. That was deadly against us last year. Again, will be interesting to see what our staff draws up. It's fun to watch us play D.
Oh I 100% would not be trapping against byu. I don’t think that they’re going to beat us off of iso. Just switch as much as possible and make them score off of mismatches. Seems to me byu mostly scores off of ball screens and ball movement.
 
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WastedTalent

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Oh I 100% would not be trapping against byu. I don’t think that they’re going to beat us off of iso. Just switch as much as possible and make them score off of mismatches. Seems to me byu mostly scores off of ball screens and ball movement.
Kind of playing into what they want us to do though. Everybody BYU plays usually plays straight up, and BYU uses their spacing and pick n roll to get layups or kick out 3s. They especially love the corner 3.

Facing Iowa St's traps, and no middle defense, is something different. Last year they proved able to still get good looks and score the ball against it. Otz doesn't like to stray to far from his bread n butter. Call it hard headed or stubborn, but he doesn't like to change alot.
 

CoachHines3

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I gotta vent about these dumbazz AP voters. (I know they don't mean sh*t) but still


Let's start with Kevin Sjuts of Lincoln, NE for KOLN/KGIN-TV.
Week 14- Ranked Iowa State 8th.
Week 15- Ranked Iowa State 23rd (We went 1-1 in Week 14 losing to KU & beating TCU)
Week 16- Ranked Iowa State 10th (We went 2-0 beating UCF/Cincy)
Week 17- Ranked Iowa State 9th.

What kills me with him, is he (or whoever) either messed up or just doesn't know what the hell is going on. By the rankings, I'm guessing he messed up.

Now, Mark Berman of the Roanoke Times is another.

Week 14- Ranked Iowa State 16th (We came off B2B losses @AZ and KSU, so 0-2)
Week 15- Ranked Iowa State 23rd
Week 16- Ranked Iowa State 23rd
Week 17- Ranked Iowa State 23rd.

We've been 23 on his ballot the last 3 weeks.
This week, he has CLEMSON as #7.
Last week, had Clemson at #10.
In addition to that, he's got Memphis at #9 this week!
 

CHim

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I gotta vent about these dumbazz AP voters. (I know they don't mean sh*t) but still


Let's start with Kevin Sjuts of Lincoln, NE for KOLN/KGIN-TV.
Week 14- Ranked Iowa State 8th.
Week 15- Ranked Iowa State 23rd (We went 1-1 in Week 14 losing to KU & beating TCU)
Week 16- Ranked Iowa State 10th (We went 2-0 beating UCF/Cincy)
Week 17- Ranked Iowa State 9th.

What kills me with him, is he (or whoever) either messed up or just doesn't know what the hell is going on. By the rankings, I'm guessing he messed up.

Now, Mark Berman of the Roanoke Times is another.

Week 14- Ranked Iowa State 16th (We came off B2B losses @AZ and KSU, so 0-2)
Week 15- Ranked Iowa State 23rd
Week 16- Ranked Iowa State 23rd
Week 17- Ranked Iowa State 23rd.

We've been 23 on his ballot the last 3 weeks.
This week, he has CLEMSON as #7.
Last week, had Clemson at #10.
In addition to that, he's got Memphis at #9 this week!
Berman had several votes on his ballot that marked him as the extreme/outlier compared to every other voter. Being the oddball for one team doesn't seem like a big deal but if you are way off on multiple teams maybe you should get your vote pulled.