I don’t think this is possible. Seems like the past 2-3 years the committee has been locking in teams to a range pretty early (like now) and nothing that happens between now and selection Sunday can move the needle out of that range (up or down). We’re in the 3-7 range now imo.
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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I don’t think this is possible. Seems like the past 2-3 years the committee has been locking in teams to a range pretty early (like now) and nothing that happens between now and selection Sunday can move the needle out of that range (up or down). We’re in the 3-7 range now imo.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
Beat Arizona, BYU and @KSU and have a good run in the conference tournament and I'd say there's a pretty decent chance. I do agree that 3 seems more likely though.
So do they start locking things in today or earlier this Monday?
Would also probably require some help from the teams they have locked in to the 2-X range. They just don’t seem to want to move those needles easily.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
Probably, though there are a lot of teams with some serious weaknesses in the lower 2 seed and 3 range, and then a pretty sizable gap back to the rest of the pack.
You may have inside information—I know nothing—but I find it a little hard to believe this is systemitized or a methodology. What’s the point of locking in a team…to five possible seeds? not sure that saves you any time. IMO two Q1 games remaining plus the inherent variability of the next ~10 days given the number of teams on the 2/3 line means ISU could still steal a 2
My heart says look at our record when fully healthy. My brain says a potential 2 seed should not need to be fully healthy to beat OSU.
7? Absolutely no way unless they lose out, that's just being pessimistic. I think the floor for Iowa State is a 5 seed, most realistic is 3-4 and 2 the ceiling if they win out.
Which of those aforementioned teams I mentioned are locked in over Iowa State if they win out?
Yeah, even missing a starter we shouldn't have looked that bad against KSU or OSU.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
It shouldn't, but most teams have at least one of those games each year, even with a full compliment.
With Tuesday's loss, I think a #2 seed is a stretch unless we win out. I think a #3 is mostly likely and we slide to a #4 if we lose 2 of 3 and don't show well in the B12 tournament.
At this point, seeding isn't that important - it's getting our own **** figured out so we can try to perform in March.
If we win out, we'd have 6 straight wins and likely 5/6 would be Q1 victories. Final record of 27-7. That'd be similar to last year and a very good shot of getting a 2 seed.
Torvik model (current as of the time I posted the update).
We've played 28/31 regular season games.
That's 90.3% or rather the cake is mostly baked by this point.
Assume winning out...
Cleveland = #6 Michigan St. / #7 Florida
Denver = #12 Texas Tech / #13 Arizona
Lexington = #1 Auburn / #4 Tennessee
Milwaukee = #8 Iowa St. / #9 Wisconsin
Providence = #11 Kentucky / #14 St. John's
Raleigh = #2 Duke / #5 Alabama
Seattle = #15 Michigan / #16 Purdue
Wichita = #3 Houston / #10 Missouri
ESPN had an article this morning about the only 8 teams that realistically have a shot at a national championship and we were the 7th team.
I saw that. I wouldn't have expected making the cut, but it did (accurately) state "if healthy."
(Side note: List is alphabetical, not in ranked order
)
When a teams are motivated to beat you and/or is motivated because they know your recent modus operandi?
The seeding will be really interesting to see. The injuries have sucked and cost us some games but we also have that excuse for losing those games. The committee might not come down as hard, who knows. The reality is even at full strength, that was going to be the toughest stretch of the season.
Trips to Tucson, Lawrence and Houston is tough for anyone. Injury free we probably have a better record but its realistic that we would've looked our worst when playing the toughest part of the schedule. With the injury excuse, we might get cut more slack than if we had been at full strength and dropped a game or two less during that stretch.
Does losing to teams like K State and Okie St help sell the injury narrative?
Trips to Tucson, Lawrence and Houston is tough for anyone. Injury free we probably have a better record but its realistic that we would've looked our worst when playing the toughest part of the schedule. With the injury excuse, we might get cut more slack than if we had been at full strength and dropped a game or two less during that stretch.
Does losing to teams like K State and Okie St help sell the injury narrative?
I think I would rather be a #3 seed in a region with Bama/Florida/Tenn/Houston as the #1 seed than be a #2 seed with Auburn/Duke as the #1 seed.
IMO Auburn and Duke are the clear cut best two teams. Teams 3-10 are pretty comparable.
The goal is the Final 4. Avoid Auburn/Duke until you get to San Antonio.
IMO Auburn and Duke are the clear cut best two teams. Teams 3-10 are pretty comparable.
The goal is the Final 4. Avoid Auburn/Duke until you get to San Antonio.
So the committee has been locking teems into a range pretty early but that range is 3-7? Thats an awfully big range.
