The 95% chance to make the tourney tells you the model still needs some tweeking on that one.
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
A complete meltdown (no more wins) gives you a #7 seed on Torvik.
But yeah we couldn't not make the tournament now if we tried.
Looking at some turnover stats on BT. Our average turnover rate has nearly DOUBLED over the course of the season. Not great, Bob.
There was a stat flashed during the OSU broadcast that we were something like 5th in the country in turnovers per game? I thought damn, how few did we average in the first half of the year?
I said the exact same thing. Must’ve been old, although we did start out the season very good.
Is it too much to ask for this scenario:
And even if say Arizona beats KU and the other results I picked are the same, Zona and ISU would just flip 2/3 seeds which is also not a bad draw because KU would drop and Baylor would be the 6.
- Iowa State beats BYU
- Iowa State beats KSU
- Kansas beats Arizona
- Arizona State beats Texas Tech in a stunner
And even if say Arizona beats KU and the other results I picked are the same, Zona and ISU would just flip 2/3 seeds which is also not a bad draw because KU would drop and Baylor would be the 6.
If KU is limping into KC with 3 straight losses including 2 at home, give me them on short rest.
Yes, it's too much to ask.
ASU isn't beating TTech.
really just win out and hope KU beats AZ that should get us the 3.
there is almost a 100% chance that ISU/BYU will be the 4/5 so we'll face them again which I don't want.
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mred's Big 12 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker
Big 12 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
And down the stretch they come...
Default Torvik projection as of right now...
Had some teams around us lose/the UA win was great/Marquette is creeping back up.
Cleveland = #4 Michigan St. / #7 Florida
Denver = #12 Arizona / #13 Missouri
Lexington = #1 Auburn / #5 Tennessee
Milwaukee = #8 Iowa St. / #10 Wisconsin
Providence = #11 Kentucky / #14 St. John's
Raleigh = #2 Duke / #6 Alabama
Seattle = #15 Purdue / #16 Maryland
Wichita = #3 Houston / #9 Texas Tech
Assume two more wins to close out the regular season...
Flipped Wisconsin and Kentucky as a third-order effect but nothing else. Why not...
Cleveland = #4 Michigan St. / #7 Florida
Denver = #11 Wisconsin / #12 Arizona
Lexington = #1 Auburn / #5 Tennessee
Milwaukee = #8 Iowa St. / #10 Kentucky
Providence = #13 Missouri / #14 St. John's
Raleigh = #2 Duke / #6 Alabama
Seattle = #15 Purdue / #16 Maryland
Wichita = #3 Houston / #9 Texas Tech
Flips our "roommate" in Milwaukee from Wisconsin to Kentucky. I think in the real world that change would be an improvement, but the most isn't precise enough to make that prediction.
Default Torvik projection as of right now...
Had some teams around us lose/the UA win was great/Marquette is creeping back up.
Cleveland = #4 Michigan St. / #7 Florida
Denver = #12 Arizona / #13 Missouri
Lexington = #1 Auburn / #5 Tennessee
Milwaukee = #8 Iowa St. / #10 Wisconsin
Providence = #11 Kentucky / #14 St. John's
Raleigh = #2 Duke / #6 Alabama
Seattle = #15 Purdue / #16 Maryland
Wichita = #3 Houston / #9 Texas Tech
Assume two more wins to close out the regular season...
Flipped Wisconsin and Kentucky as a third-order effect but nothing else. Why not...
Cleveland = #4 Michigan St. / #7 Florida
Denver = #11 Wisconsin / #12 Arizona
Lexington = #1 Auburn / #5 Tennessee
Milwaukee = #8 Iowa St. / #10 Kentucky
Providence = #13 Missouri / #14 St. John's
Raleigh = #2 Duke / #6 Alabama
Seattle = #15 Purdue / #16 Maryland
Wichita = #3 Houston / #9 Texas Tech
Flips our "roommate" in Milwaukee from Wisconsin to Kentucky. I think in the real world that change would be an improvement, but the most isn't precise enough to make that prediction.
IMO Wisconsin in Milwaukee would be brutal, worse than UConn in Boston because you'd potentially see them a round earlier. As an ISU fan (and because Wisconsin has two cupcakes left), I therefore fully expect that to be the draw. Of course, ISU winning out is no given
Iowa State will not play Wisconsin in Milwaukee. Earliest Iowa State would play Wisconsin is Sweet 16.
I'm an idiot, completely spaced that Sweet Sixteen will be at a different location. Sorry
Nah you aren't an idiot; there is so much data in this thread it gets confusing!
I believe they don't even have to be in the same region to both play in Milwaukee, so it's possible they wouldn't see each other until the final.
