2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[Statefan10]

Across CBB there have been ~5 half court+ makes in just the last couple weeks alone. Certainly not a hyper percentage shot, but much higher percentage shot in the center unguarded. I bet Love makes our same shot 1/10 times, and the specific shot he had against K-State maybe 1/50.

And year, it was still lucky AF.

How many shots were missed? I know that's basically impossible to know haha, but the amount of games that have been played in CBB is quite large in a two week window and I bet that the percentage is right around what has been talked about. It's easy to sit here and say we should've done something different when the guy drained it. If he makes that one last night, KSU fans would be saying the same thing. He missed it and that ending will be forgotten.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Every basketball player who has ever practiced in the history of ever throws up half court shots at center court following workouts. I guarantee if there was a live feed at SUKUP in Ames, you'd see it daily

I went to the game last night in Orlando.

Kelderman was chuckin' half-court (and a little more) shots during warmups.

Almost banked in the last one.

 

[cyfan92]

My last post on this, because I want to move on, and my point is not being comprehended the way it should be.. My fault

Forced Smith away from the middle of the court


Takes an off balance shot with momentum moving towards the corner baseline having to twist his body upon release


This is how you defend last second shots. Force to the sideline taking momentum towards out of bounds, not squared with the hoop

 

[Statefan10]

My last post on this, because I want to move on, and my point is not being comprehended the way it should be.. My fault

Forced Smith away from the middle of the court
View attachment 143080

Takes an off balance shot with momentum moving towards the corner baseline having to twist his body upon release
View attachment 143081

This is how you defend last second shots. Force to the sideline taking momentum towards out of bounds, not squared with the hoop

You do realize that that specific shot is still a much higher percentage shot regardless of the defense being played? I'm not saying we played good defense either I think it was definitely easy for Love to get the shot off, but it doesn't negate the fact that Smith's shot last night was a higher percentage shot at 35 feet than Love's was from 50+.

 

[Sigmapolis]

CW the analytics nerd. I love it.

 

[Letterkenny]

My last post on this, because I want to move on, and my point is not being comprehended the way it should be.. My fault

Forced Smith away from the middle of the court
View attachment 143080

Takes an off balance shot with momentum moving towards the corner baseline having to twist his body upon release
View attachment 143081

This is how you defend last second shots. Force to the sideline taking momentum towards out of bounds, not squared with the hoop

That's a significantly higher % shot than what Caleb Love made. Not even in the same ball park. The Michigan guy defending him that tripped also got really close to fouling him while shooting, which is why you don't want to "over defend" if you don't need to.

 

[Statefan10]

That's a significantly higher % shot than what Caleb Love made. Not even in the same ball park. The Michigan guy defending him that tripped also got really close to fouling him while shooting, which is why you don't want to "over defend" if you don't need to.

Two things can be true..
1. We could've guarded it better
2. Love hit a very low percentage shot

 

[Letterkenny]

Two things can be true..
1. We could've guarded it better
2. Love hit a very low percentage shot

I have no issue with how we guarded it. I thought we defended it really well actually.

 

[CRCySpy]

I think this projection is "as of now" and I don't love their methodology but you asked...

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/detail/

View attachment 143079

I'd be okay with ISU being a 3 seed if Purdue or Michigan is the 2 seed in their region. Plenty of time for ISU to cement their spot as a 2 seed in the Midwest.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I'd be okay with ISU being a 3 seed if Purdue or Michigan is the 2 seed in their region. Plenty of time for ISU to cement their spot as a 2 seed in the Midwest.

I'll also note I doubt three SEC teams are going to draw #1 seeds.

There's just going to be too much circular firing squad for that outcome to come to pass.

I'll probably be two SEC plus Duke and... we'll see how the Big 12 and Big Ten work out.

 

[Cytasticlone]

I'll also note I doubt three SEC teams are going to draw #1 seeds.

There's just going to be too much circular firing squad for that outcome to come to pass.

I'll probably be two SEC plus Duke and... we'll see how the Big 12 and Big Ten work out.

Hehehe... I had not heard the phrase "circular firing squad" before. I lol'd at that.

 

[cyfan92]

I'd be okay with ISU being a 3 seed if Purdue or Michigan is the 2 seed in their region. Plenty of time for ISU to cement their spot as a 2 seed in the Midwest.

I don't want to be the 3 seed in the Midwest if Purdue is the 2 seed... That's MSU in Arburn Hills 2.0

Purdue in San Fran would be fine by me though!

 

[qwerty]

Well this is information I wasn't aware of. Every player? Ever?

A shot with a 5% chance of going in is still a 5% shot. I can basically guarantee he doesn't make it last night if he shoots the same shot as he did vs. ISU.

So JT Rock is practicing half court shots on a daily basis. Got it.

 

[Die4Cy]

I'll also note I doubt three SEC teams are going to draw #1 seeds.

There's just going to be too much circular firing squad for that outcome to come to pass.

I'll probably be two SEC plus Duke and... we'll see how the Big 12 and Big Ten work out.

It has happened twice in the past, Big East in 2009 and ACC 2019. But I don't really think the SEC is going to get three #1's without any of the teams being a blue blood.

IMO, two of the three are going to end the season with a loss in their conference tournament. Whoever loses the semifinal, if it isn't Auburn, is going to drop a line. And if it's Auburn that loses in the semifinal, the loser of the championship game likely gets bounced down a line and they get to hold the #1.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I have no issue with how we guarded it. I thought we defended it really well actually.

Yeah, it would be stupid to guard it any closer than we did

 

[VeloClone]

Yeah, it would be stupid to guard it any closer than we did

Agreed. I also think you give up a little disruption on the long attempt to make sure you are defending against the baseball pass on the initial inbounds. Make sure he is taking it from the back court even if it is less closely defended.

 

[bosco]

I think this projection is "as of now" and I don't love their methodology but you asked...

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/detail/

View attachment 143079

They seeded by number of wins. Very scientific.

 

[Letterkenny]

Agreed. I also think you give up a little disruption on the long attempt to make sure you are defending against the baseball pass on the initial inbounds. Make sure he is taking it from the back court even if it is less closely defended.

We made him catch it level with their own free throw line, at a stand still, and made him shoot about one stride past their three point arc. That's about as good as you're going to do there.

 

[CRCySpy]

I don't want to be the 3 seed in the Midwest if Purdue is the 2 seed... That's MSU in Arburn Hills 2.0

Purdue in San Fran would be fine by me though!

Good point. Didn't realize the regional finals site is in Indy.

If ISU is a two seed in the MW, I could see the committee putting Purdue on the 3 line because of Iowa State's weak non-conference schedule. Oh wait, that was last year.

Putting Purdue as a 3 in the Midwest should not happen. That would be a slap in the face to the 1 and 2 seed in that bracket, but I wouldn't put it past the committee.

 

[andybernard]

I'm in the camp that I don't have a problem with how we defended it. Bad luck happens...

I think in a perfect world, you go all out for a steal on the inbound pass and do whatever it takes to make contact with the ball. If you touch ball without a foul, that's essentially game over. If you get called for a foul, they still need a perfect storm of things to go their way.

My 2 cents...