2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

CloniesForLife

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Apr 22, 2015
15,195
20,224
113
Storr's offensive regression is bizzare. He was a stud at Wisconsin last year. Maybe he just doesn't fit with how Kansas wants to play? He only played 10 minutes tonight.

We keep seeing these highly coveted transfers go to big time programs, and basically do nothing. Meanwhile, we pick up whatever scraps we can find from the mid-majors and turn them into all conference guys. Our staff's evaluation of transfers is second to none.
Kansas assembled a lot of individual talent but that roster does not really work together. TJ has assembled a team that fits together. On top of the talent evaluation and player development
 

NorthCyd

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 22, 2011
20,071
33,111
113
Kansas assembled a lot of individual talent but that roster does not really work together. TJ has assembled a team that fits together. On top of the talent evaluation and player development
As I was walking to my car after the game I heard Walters say if you want to have a team that plays hard you recruit players that play hard. I think that's what TJ and this staff does better than anything. They recruit players that they can push to the limit and can take it.
 

bawbie

Moderator
Staff member
Mar 17, 2006
53,974
46,055
113
Cedar Rapids, IA
I definitely agree. Milan has gravity and demands defensive attention that opens things up for others. But have to give credit to KU's defense, too. Iowa State was 14/46 from two tonight, by far ISU's worst two-point percentage of the season (and the first game of the season below 50% from two). However, tonight was KU's 7th straight game holding the opponent to 50% or worse from two. They've been a really great defense lately, primarily by giving up low field goal percentages while still not fouling. They gave up a low field goal percentage tonight, but our guys got to the line way more than KU's been giving up lately.
Was it defense? ISU missed so many easy shots they usually make. Keshon was 1-6 on two-point shots after shooting almost 60% on the season. Some of it was pushing more shots to the mid-range, and the threat of a block rushing the bunnies - but watching the game, especially the second half, it just seemed more like bad luck.

I think that is going to turn for KU and they are going to run into a set of games where opponents make those bunnies - hopefully in early February.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ankency

bawbie

Moderator
Staff member
Mar 17, 2006
53,974
46,055
113
Cedar Rapids, IA
An island of misfit toys.

Doing what TJ is doing with pieces off the proverbial scrap heap... I don't have words for it.
It's a testament to fit over stats. Self brought in 5 guys who all scored pretty well - 3 of whom thrived with the ball in their hands - when he had a pass-first PG who has the ball most of the time. Mayo is good - and Moore isn't a bad fit, he's just a defense first guard who is a bit undersized and was injured. But how he thought Storr, Coit, Mayo would fit into a team with Harris and Dickinson is beyond me.

Storr wasn't exactly a pinnacle of efficiency last year, he shot 32% from three and 48% from two - he just had a huge usage number (~30%) at Wisky. but he's a flake who is clearly hunting a bag (thus 3 schools in 3 years) and doesn't know how to play without the ball in his hands all the time.
 

clone4life82

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Dec 17, 2008
3,574
3,433
113
Ankeny
Was it defense? ISU missed so many easy shots they usually make. Keshon was 1-6 on two-point shots after shooting almost 60% on the season. Some of it was pushing more shots to the mid-range, and the threat of a block rushing the bunnies - but watching the game, especially the second half, it just seemed more like bad luck.

I think that is going to turn for KU and they are going to run into a set of games where opponents make those bunnies - hopefully in early February.
I would at atleast some of it was defense. What did Kansas have, 10 blocked shots!? When you have shot alterers like that in the lane, as a guard, you know it and you attack differently.
 

rosshm16

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Oct 8, 2023
4,746
7,392
113
"Brandton Chatfield."

"Who?"

"Exactly. Sounds like an Iowa State Cyclone already."
He bullied Hunter Dickinson very badly last night, just simply would not let him get to the spots he wanted to get to on offense. Dishon did a similar thing on the offensive end, just went at him and he wanted no part of the physicality. It was a good demonstration of why Dickinson is back playing his fifth year of college ball vs. being in the NBA already.
 

CoachHines3

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Oct 29, 2019
9,302
18,571
113
He bullied Hunter Dickinson very badly last night, just simply would not let him get to the spots he wanted to get to on offense. Dishon did a similar thing on the offensive end, just went at him and he wanted no part of the physicality. It was a good demonstration of why Dickinson is back playing his fifth year of college ball vs. being in the NBA already.
those two were bumpin' uglies in the paint for sure.
 

bawbie

Moderator
Staff member
Mar 17, 2006
53,974
46,055
113
Cedar Rapids, IA
Looking at the upcoming schedules on Torvik - we are 2/3rds of the way through 3 straight Quad 1A games. None of the other top 4 BigXII teams (ISU, Houston, KU and Zona are clearly the top 4) play 3 straight Quad 1A games at any point. Win on Saturday and sweeping those 3 will be HUGE for the conference title.

Someone mentioned upthread that Houston has a tough schedule at the end - an they absolutely do. After 2 more bunnies (@ UCF, Utah) - they have 9 of their last 13 games against top 25 teams. And 4 of their last 6 are Quad 1A - and 5 of their last 7.

Torvik likes them so much that it has with at least a 70% chance of any individual game - but that's a tough stretch that will knock them down a couple notches
 

cycloneman003

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Jan 14, 2008
4,784
3,217
113
Madison, WI
Looking at schedule of some other top non-Big 12 teams... my god what a joke Duke's schedule is. The ACC is trash this year. 14 games left, only three Quad 1A and, three Quad 2 and EIGHT Quad 3 per Torvik. They are 8+ point favorites in every game other than Illinois at MSG in Feb. They are going to get so much love for racking up blowouts against garbage teams.

Auburn has a brutal schedule. In their last 14 they have eight Quad 1A, four Quad 1B, two Quad 2.

Ours is in the middle, 15 games to go. Five Quad 1A, two Quad 1B, five Quad 2 and three Quad 3.
 

CascadeClone

Well-Known Member
Oct 24, 2009
10,660
13,592
113
Looking at the upcoming schedules on Torvik - we are 2/3rds of the way through 3 straight Quad 1A games. None of the other top 4 BigXII teams (ISU, Houston, KU and Zona are clearly the top 4) play 3 straight Quad 1A games at any point. Win on Saturday and sweeping those 3 will be HUGE for the conference title.

Someone mentioned upthread that Houston has a tough schedule at the end - an they absolutely do. After 2 more bunnies (@ UCF, Utah) - they have 9 of their last 13 games against top 25 teams. And 4 of their last 6 are Quad 1A - and 5 of their last 7.

Torvik likes them so much that it has with at least a 70% chance of any individual game - but that's a tough stretch that will knock them down a couple notches
Houston has been blowing out the bunnies. Thus the computer love.

Will it translate vs the Top 25 opponents? I guess we will see. Usually it does, and I expect they will be right there down the stretch.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: EnkAMania

Cyclonepride

Thought Police
Staff member
Apr 11, 2006
98,391
61,498
113
54
A pineapple under the sea
www.oldschoolradical.com
Houston has been blowing out the bunnies. Thus the computer love.

Will it translate vs the Top 25 opponents? I guess we will see. Usually it does, and I expect they will be right there down the stretch.
Houston definitely looks good right now. The question is whether they will be able to generate the necessary offense when they get teams that can handle their defensive pressure without turning it over a lot, as they don't look great to me when their opponents get to set their defense in the half court.
 

CloniesForLife

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Apr 22, 2015
15,195
20,224
113
And yet they are still ranked ahead of us in the NET rankings.
I don't believe the actual NET ranking matters as much as your record against the different Quads in NET. Our Quad 1 wins would put us in front of Houston. But this will all get sorted out anyway as they will have lots more Q1 games
 
  • Like
Reactions: Letterkenny

alarson

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Mar 15, 2006
58,871
72,742
113
Ankeny

Not really.

They've played 3 quad 1 games. They lost close in all of them, and 2 of those were to top 10 teams. So they're getting some credit for being good even without the wins, which seems reasonable. I mean we got a lot of credit for our loss to Auburn too.

But more importantly if you look at quad 2, which are still good wins, they're crushing those, all by double digits.

Houston has 11 more quad 1 games. They'll get a chance to prove themselves