2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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If you think BYU beats Houston tomorrow, that'd be decent bet.
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As of now...
Torvik and the other computer models think KU is way overrated compared to Vegas and human polls.
Torvik and the other computer models think KU is way overrated compared to Vegas and human polls.
I'm not sure why KU is still a top 10 team by the human polls. I don't think any team should be in the top 25, let alone top 10, after losing at UCF and WV in a span of a week or so. The computers seem more accurate in this instance
Computers don't see the name on the jersey.
Vegas tries to balance the betting public, who DO see the name on the jersey.
Wow, look at the difference between the 4-1 teams! They think Tech is for real and KSU is not
I disagree. I think we are the team that is best equipped to get road wins in this league.
I'm not totally sold on Tech yet either. They have some nice pieces, but Pop Isaacs, IMO is going to lose them as many games as he wins them due to being a volume shooter and turnover machine.
Human polls are garbage and should be eliminated.
Bart Torvik has Houston -4.6. can't imagine Vegas going that high. If BYU wins their odds are going to dramatically drop. They really do have favorable remaining schedule.
Houston has absolutely mauled everybody they've played except Iowa State on the road and TCU on the road. Both are difficult environments and were hard-fought games. Houston could easily be undefeated right now if Milan missed a ridiculous step-back jumper over two defenders and if they had just one more good possession on offense or defense to finish TCU off. They're still the clear favorite here.
It would make me so happy if the # next to your name on ESPN when you play a basketball game was something like your KenPom number. Same deal with football with say FPI.
I think you can justify ranking them. They have some good wins this year (neutral-site games against Kentucky and Tennessee, UConn at home, TCU at home) and I don't think it is ever too shameful to lose a Big 12 game on the road at this point (including against "bad" Big 12 teams like UCF, OSU, and WVU).
Outside of their road Big 12 losses their only loss was Marquette on a neutral floor. Marquette is a very good team. Torvik has the Jayhawks at #18, which I think would be fair for their play so far this year.
KU is ranked high by humans because of Bill Self and their history. Also noting that they are tied for 6th in the country with a record of 4-2 against Q1 opponents.
Here is everyone ballot to see who the biggest idiots are:
collegepolltracker.com
Our friend Chad from the Register has them #6 in his latest AP ballot.. I don't blame him for his poor effort, he's conditioned to watching Iowa and the B1G all year... If you went from that to watching KU, you'd also think they are elite.
Here is everyone ballot to see who the biggest idiots are:
Kansas Jayhawks Basketball at College Poll Tracker
Our friend Chad from the Register has them #6 in his latest AP ballot.. I don't blame him for his poor effort, he's conditioned to watching Iowa and the B1G all year... If you went from that to watching KU, you'd also think they are elite.
Kansas has 3 super impressive out of conference wins: UConn (H), Tennessee (N), Kentucky (N). Their strength of record is currently #8 so I think they are deserving of their Top 10 ranking.
However, their computer metrics indicate they are due for some regression. They also have the #2 remaining SOS in the country. A lot of tough games left and their best 4 players play heavy heavy minutes out of necessity.
However, their computer metrics indicate they are due for some regression. They also have the #2 remaining SOS in the country. A lot of tough games left and their best 4 players play heavy heavy minutes out of necessity.
Wow, KU w/ only 35% projection to finish top 4 in Big 12, that would be ... unusual.
Kansas has finished 3rd or higher all but one season in Big 12 (5th in 1999-2000).
Caveat -- it's mid-January, this type of projection might have occurred in other seasons at this juncture in the conference slate, if KU happened to start more slowly / wasn't dominant.
Another thing to remember with Kansas, in recent seasons, there's a tendency to have a lull sometime in January (occasionally early February) when it looks like there's vulnerability, takes an unexpected loss or two ... then gets back on track and other B12 contenders lose in similar fashion and can't "take advantage."
Given how hard road wins are this year, we really need to hold down Hilton.
Wouldn't a game at Houston help this team mentally for the NCAA tournament game than a Stillwater trip? Or does it really matter being in the Big12 anyway.
Most teams are hating life on the road on the B12.
