Teams
Forum List
Toggle sidebar

2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

CyclonesRock

CyclonesRock

Well-Known Member
Jan 1, 2018
1,269
1,719
113
Iowa
NoCreativity said:
It would have been nice to at least get one or two more decent games. I don't think the Big 12 is quite the gauntlet it has been in the years past.

It's unbalanced first of all so teams can miss certain teams. Kansas and Houston are national title contenders but Texas and Kansas State are both down this year. We beat Baylor twice last year. I think Oklahoma and BYU are overrated and will end up in the 8-11 seed range in the tourney.

Another thing is the conference actually has a bottom unlike most years with the true round Robin. Teams like Cincinnati,West Virginia, Tech, and UCF will struggle to win many games.
Click to expand...
So far this has not aged well....
1705858973013.png
 
  • Agree
Reactions: NoCreativity
NoCreativity

NoCreativity

Well-Known Member
Nov 12, 2015
12,443
10,769
113
Des Moines
CyclonesRock said:
So far this has not aged well....
View attachment 122559
Click to expand...
Yeah, so far this is a bad take. Tech is alot better than I thought they would be and the newcomers are holding their own. I assumed it would be like football where they struggled to adapt but so far Cincy and UCF look pretty good.

West Virginia is still bad but will alwasy be tough in Morgantown.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MiscRiot and NENick
bawbie

bawbie

Moderator
Staff member
Mar 17, 2006
54,349
47,007
113
Cedar Rapids, IA
We made it through the first 5 games 3-2, which is as good as could be reasonably expected. Now on to the next 5, which isn't much easier.

We've got to take care of home court - and that will be a big test with KSU and KU this week. Just a huge week in Hilton - hopefully Tamin is healthy . Then the Texas road trip week, with @Baylor and @texas. Just like this week, any road win is a positive and getting 1 of those 2 would be a success. Both feel like winnable games or blowout losses.
Then back home for the TCU rematch.

I'm not sure if its a good thing or a bad thing that we only get the two worst teams in the conference (WVU and OSU) once, and both only in Hilton. We don't have a chance for the two easiest road wins - but playing in Stillwater and Morgantown is never easy
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jkclone15, NWICY, MiscRiot and 7 others
CloniesForLife

CloniesForLife

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Apr 22, 2015
15,586
21,007
113
bawbie said:
We made it through the first 5 games 3-2, which is as good as could be reasonably expected. Now on to the next 5, which isn't much easier.

We've got to take care of home court - and that will be a big test with KSU and KU this week. Just a huge week in Hilton - hopefully Tamin is healthy . Then the Texas road trip week, with @Baylor and @texas. Just like this week, any road win is a positive and getting 1 of those 2 would be a success. Both feel like winnable games or blowout losses.
Then back home for the TCU rematch.

I'm not sure if its a good thing or a bad thing that we only get the two worst teams in the conference (WVU and OSU) once, and both only in Hilton. We don't have a chance for the two easiest road wins - but playing in Stillwater and Morgantown is never easy
Click to expand...
Every single one of us would've signed up for a 3-2 start in a heart beat
 
  • Like
  • Agree
Reactions: Jkclone15, Cyclonsin, ClonesFTW and 17 others
NENick

NENick

Well-Known Member
Feb 14, 2017
2,541
4,243
113
NoCreativity said:
Yeah, so far this is a bad take. Tech is alot better than I thought they would be and the newcomers are holding their own. I assumed it would be like football where they struggled to adapt but so far Cincy and UCF look pretty good.

West Virginia is still bad but will alwasy be tough in Morgantown.
Click to expand...
I don't know much about the TTech coach, but he's gotta be a better person then their last 2.
 
CyPunch

CyPunch

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2019
4,707
11,988
113
Sandy Springs, GA
bawbie said:
We made it through the first 5 games 3-2, which is as good as could be reasonably expected. Now on to the next 5, which isn't much easier.

We've got to take care of home court - and that will be a big test with KSU and KU this week. Just a huge week in Hilton - hopefully Tamin is healthy . Then the Texas road trip week, with @Baylor and @texas. Just like this week, any road win is a positive and getting 1 of those 2 would be a success. Both feel like winnable games or blowout losses.
Then back home for the TCU rematch.

I'm not sure if its a good thing or a bad thing that we only get the two worst teams in the conference (WVU and OSU) once, and both only in Hilton. We don't have a chance for the two easiest road wins - but playing in Stillwater and Morgantown is never easy
Click to expand...

I'm very happy to not be playing in Morgantown. And Lubbock.

Would definitely trade having to play @ Houston for a trip to Stillwater.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bawbie and Cyclonepride
G

Gunnerclone

Well-Known Member
Jul 16, 2010
75,423
79,488
113
DSM
bawbie said:
We made it through the first 5 games 3-2, which is as good as could be reasonably expected. Now on to the next 5, which isn't much easier.

We've got to take care of home court - and that will be a big test with KSU and KU this week. Just a huge week in Hilton - hopefully Tamin is healthy . Then the Texas road trip week, with @Baylor and @texas. Just like this week, any road win is a positive and getting 1 of those 2 would be a success. Both feel like winnable games or blowout losses.
Then back home for the TCU rematch.

I'm not sure if its a good thing or a bad thing that we only get the two worst teams in the conference (WVU and OSU) once, and both only in Hilton. We don't have a chance for the two easiest road wins - but playing in Stillwater and Morgantown is never easy
Click to expand...

I don’t know why everyone gets so caught up in having to win every game at home. We’ve proven we can win on the road with TJ at the helm. We just need to go 3-2 again over the next 5. Doesn’t matter where the three happens.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CyPunch
C

cydnote

Well-Known Member
Oct 24, 2023
610
1,245
93
Gunnerclone said:
I don’t know why everyone gets so caught up in having to win every game at home. We’ve proven we can win on the road with TJ at the helm. We just need to go 3-2 again over the next 5. Doesn’t matter where the three happens.
Click to expand...
I think to preserve the Hilton Magic label. Put a little doubt in opponents' mind about their chance of success coming into our house. We can do both
 
  • Like
Reactions: ChickenNuggetMan, legi, NWICY and 2 others
M

madguy30

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Nov 15, 2011
57,209
55,100
113
cydnote said:
I think to preserve the Hilton Magic label. Put a little doubt in opponents' mind about their chance of success coming into our house. We can do both
Click to expand...

I believe Iowa State has gone undefeated at home two seasons ever in Hilton. And that was with legendary players and a weaker Big 12.

Scrape 5-6 more (or more for bonus) wins together and the next 'concern' is hoping for a favorable matchup in the NCAA tourney and even then nothing is automatic.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Letterkenny
C

cydnote

Well-Known Member
Oct 24, 2023
610
1,245
93
I think the mantra for being successful in the league going into the year was to protect home court and snag however many road wins we could. Plus I love it when Fran F repeatably mentions how intimidating Hilton can be
 
  • Like
Reactions: NENick
S

singsing

Well-Known Member
Nov 2, 2007
2,303
1,658
113
SolarGarlic said:
I very much enjoy that we won't be playing at Morgantown or Lubbock. Not to mention Lawrence, but I will kind of miss that for tradition's sake.
Click to expand...
What? The traditional screw job by the refs? Was it last season WVU was in the bonus 4 minutes in?
 
8bitnes

8bitnes

Well-Known Member
Nov 21, 2010
2,755
2,954
113
rosshm16 said:
Why does it say "Projected record: 11-7" when we are 3-2 and, if I'm reading right, it looks to be projecting us to go 11-2 in the remaining Big 12 games?
Click to expand...
If you add up the win probabilities of the games remaining, it came out to exactly 800. Divide by 100 and arrive at 8 more wins to go with the existing 3. So, the system is spreading out the probabilities across all games instead of looking at it solely from a 1/0 possibility
 
  • Like
  • Winner
Reactions: nrg4isu, MeanDean and Cyhig
D

Dale

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2010
399
1,330
93
Chicagoland
Using KenPom's odds, the chances of ISU going undefeated at home the rest of the season are 9 percent. Chances are, there's going to be a loss at Hilton in there somewhere. But that said, the odds of ISU losing every remaining game on the road are less than 2 percent. Very likely there's going to be both a home loss and another road win.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
  • Agree
Reactions: LincolnSwinger, mark82, Letterkenny and 3 others
JP4CY

JP4CY

Lord, beer me strength.
Staff member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Dec 19, 2008
74,401
95,279
113
Testifying
Dale said:
Using KenPom's odds, the chances of ISU going undefeated at home the rest of the season are 9 percent. Chances are, there's going to be a loss at Hilton in there somewhere. But that said, the odds of ISU losing every remaining game on the road are less than 2 percent. Very likely there's going to be both a home loss and a road win.
Click to expand...
I'm more concerned about K-State's length than I probably should be.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Help Support Us

Become a patron
Top Bottom