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2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

CyclonesRock

CyclonesRock

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NoCreativity said:
It would have been nice to at least get one or two more decent games. I don't think the Big 12 is quite the gauntlet it has been in the years past.

It's unbalanced first of all so teams can miss certain teams. Kansas and Houston are national title contenders but Texas and Kansas State are both down this year. We beat Baylor twice last year. I think Oklahoma and BYU are overrated and will end up in the 8-11 seed range in the tourney.

Another thing is the conference actually has a bottom unlike most years with the true round Robin. Teams like Cincinnati,West Virginia, Tech, and UCF will struggle to win many games.
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So far this has not aged well....
1705858973013.png
 
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NoCreativity

NoCreativity

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CyclonesRock said:
So far this has not aged well....
View attachment 122559
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Yeah, so far this is a bad take. Tech is alot better than I thought they would be and the newcomers are holding their own. I assumed it would be like football where they struggled to adapt but so far Cincy and UCF look pretty good.

West Virginia is still bad but will alwasy be tough in Morgantown.
 
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bawbie

bawbie

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We made it through the first 5 games 3-2, which is as good as could be reasonably expected. Now on to the next 5, which isn't much easier.

We've got to take care of home court - and that will be a big test with KSU and KU this week. Just a huge week in Hilton - hopefully Tamin is healthy . Then the Texas road trip week, with @Baylor and @texas. Just like this week, any road win is a positive and getting 1 of those 2 would be a success. Both feel like winnable games or blowout losses.
Then back home for the TCU rematch.

I'm not sure if its a good thing or a bad thing that we only get the two worst teams in the conference (WVU and OSU) once, and both only in Hilton. We don't have a chance for the two easiest road wins - but playing in Stillwater and Morgantown is never easy
 
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CloniesForLife

CloniesForLife

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bawbie said:
We made it through the first 5 games 3-2, which is as good as could be reasonably expected. Now on to the next 5, which isn't much easier.

We've got to take care of home court - and that will be a big test with KSU and KU this week. Just a huge week in Hilton - hopefully Tamin is healthy . Then the Texas road trip week, with @Baylor and @texas. Just like this week, any road win is a positive and getting 1 of those 2 would be a success. Both feel like winnable games or blowout losses.
Then back home for the TCU rematch.

I'm not sure if its a good thing or a bad thing that we only get the two worst teams in the conference (WVU and OSU) once, and both only in Hilton. We don't have a chance for the two easiest road wins - but playing in Stillwater and Morgantown is never easy
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Every single one of us would've signed up for a 3-2 start in a heart beat
 
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NENick

NENick

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Feb 14, 2017
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NoCreativity said:
Yeah, so far this is a bad take. Tech is alot better than I thought they would be and the newcomers are holding their own. I assumed it would be like football where they struggled to adapt but so far Cincy and UCF look pretty good.

West Virginia is still bad but will alwasy be tough in Morgantown.
Click to expand...
I don't know much about the TTech coach, but he's gotta be a better person then their last 2.
 
CyPunch

CyPunch

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May 3, 2019
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bawbie said:
We made it through the first 5 games 3-2, which is as good as could be reasonably expected. Now on to the next 5, which isn't much easier.

We've got to take care of home court - and that will be a big test with KSU and KU this week. Just a huge week in Hilton - hopefully Tamin is healthy . Then the Texas road trip week, with @Baylor and @texas. Just like this week, any road win is a positive and getting 1 of those 2 would be a success. Both feel like winnable games or blowout losses.
Then back home for the TCU rematch.

I'm not sure if its a good thing or a bad thing that we only get the two worst teams in the conference (WVU and OSU) once, and both only in Hilton. We don't have a chance for the two easiest road wins - but playing in Stillwater and Morgantown is never easy
Click to expand...

I'm very happy to not be playing in Morgantown. And Lubbock.

Would definitely trade having to play @ Houston for a trip to Stillwater.
 
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Gunnerclone

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Jul 16, 2010
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bawbie said:
We made it through the first 5 games 3-2, which is as good as could be reasonably expected. Now on to the next 5, which isn't much easier.

We've got to take care of home court - and that will be a big test with KSU and KU this week. Just a huge week in Hilton - hopefully Tamin is healthy . Then the Texas road trip week, with @Baylor and @texas. Just like this week, any road win is a positive and getting 1 of those 2 would be a success. Both feel like winnable games or blowout losses.
Then back home for the TCU rematch.

I'm not sure if its a good thing or a bad thing that we only get the two worst teams in the conference (WVU and OSU) once, and both only in Hilton. We don't have a chance for the two easiest road wins - but playing in Stillwater and Morgantown is never easy
Click to expand...

I don’t know why everyone gets so caught up in having to win every game at home. We’ve proven we can win on the road with TJ at the helm. We just need to go 3-2 again over the next 5. Doesn’t matter where the three happens.
 
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cydnote

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Oct 24, 2023
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Gunnerclone said:
I don’t know why everyone gets so caught up in having to win every game at home. We’ve proven we can win on the road with TJ at the helm. We just need to go 3-2 again over the next 5. Doesn’t matter where the three happens.
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I think to preserve the Hilton Magic label. Put a little doubt in opponents' mind about their chance of success coming into our house. We can do both
 
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madguy30

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cydnote said:
I think to preserve the Hilton Magic label. Put a little doubt in opponents' mind about their chance of success coming into our house. We can do both
Click to expand...

I believe Iowa State has gone undefeated at home two seasons ever in Hilton. And that was with legendary players and a weaker Big 12.

Scrape 5-6 more (or more for bonus) wins together and the next 'concern' is hoping for a favorable matchup in the NCAA tourney and even then nothing is automatic.
 
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cydnote

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I think the mantra for being successful in the league going into the year was to protect home court and snag however many road wins we could. Plus I love it when Fran F repeatably mentions how intimidating Hilton can be
 
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singsing

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Nov 2, 2007
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SolarGarlic said:
I very much enjoy that we won't be playing at Morgantown or Lubbock. Not to mention Lawrence, but I will kind of miss that for tradition's sake.
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What? The traditional screw job by the refs? Was it last season WVU was in the bonus 4 minutes in?
 
8bitnes

8bitnes

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Nov 21, 2010
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rosshm16 said:
Why does it say "Projected record: 11-7" when we are 3-2 and, if I'm reading right, it looks to be projecting us to go 11-2 in the remaining Big 12 games?
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If you add up the win probabilities of the games remaining, it came out to exactly 800. Divide by 100 and arrive at 8 more wins to go with the existing 3. So, the system is spreading out the probabilities across all games instead of looking at it solely from a 1/0 possibility
 
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Dale

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Using KenPom's odds, the chances of ISU going undefeated at home the rest of the season are 9 percent. Chances are, there's going to be a loss at Hilton in there somewhere. But that said, the odds of ISU losing every remaining game on the road are less than 2 percent. Very likely there's going to be both a home loss and another road win.
 
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JP4CY

JP4CY

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Dale said:
Using KenPom's odds, the chances of ISU going undefeated at home the rest of the season are 9 percent. Chances are, there's going to be a loss at Hilton in there somewhere. But that said, the odds of ISU losing every remaining game on the road are less than 2 percent. Very likely there's going to be both a home loss and a road win.
Click to expand...
I'm more concerned about K-State's length than I probably should be.
 
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