2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

cydnote

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Oct 24, 2023
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I don’t think that is what this is measuring. It’s a formula. It’s math. It just is what it is.
OK Gunner, what do you think it's measuring? Your response adds nothing to the discussion. Are you inferring that if all our wins were by one point we'd still be rated this high? If we (hypothetically) lost to the top 5 teams in the country would we be automatically be rated 6th? Of course our margin of victory along with their calculated rating as an opponent is the reason for placing us at 8th at this juncture.
 

bawbie

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There are two stats that have massively changed from Otz's first two years. Pace has been mentioned several times - by one site we jumped from 321st last year to 81st this year - and that's been almost all since Orlando. The game yesterday had a crazy number of possessions (85 I think)

The other crazy jump is in Free Throw Attempted Rate (FTAR), or the number of FTs attempted per 100 trips up the floor. In Otz's first year we were 292nd, last year 168th (still below the average team) and this year we're up to 8th!

Just looking at raw numbers, in Otz first year we had 6 games where we took > 20 FTs. There were 7 such games last year. This year we've done it in all 10.
 

Gunnerclone

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OK Gunner, what do you think it's measuring? Your response adds nothing to the discussion. Are you inferring that if all our wins were by one point we'd still be rated this high? If we (hypothetically) lost to the top 5 teams in the country would we be automatically be rated 6th? Of course our margin of victory along with their calculated rating as an opponent is the reason for placing us at 8th at this juncture.

And if that is what the ranking is measuring and weighing then what is your point? Your “we’re not really the 8th best team in the country” is adding nothing. By this measurement, we ARE the 8th highest placed team. It’s numbers, your feelings don’t matter.
 

cydnote

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Oct 24, 2023
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And if that is what the ranking is measuring and weighing then what is your point? Your “we’re not really the 8th best team in the country” is adding nothing. By this measurement, we ARE the 8th highest placed team. It’s numbers, your feelings don’t matter.
Not in the mood to argue for the sake of arguing but you said that you didn't think that is what it was measuring.
 

Messi

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I think he has gone 8-12 in the last 3 games, so 9-42 before that. Hope he keeps in this groove!
yes, has shot well last 3 games while also seeing his MPG decrease
19.6 mpg last 3
24.5 before that

another benefit to the emergence of Pav. Jones is finding his role better and not trying to do too much
 

CoachHines3

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After Sundays huge victory

Defense is staying steady at #6

Offense had a big jump from 72nd when entering the Depaul game. Up to 52 after Iowa/PVA&M

Projected record staying steady at 21-10 (10-8)

1702312641145.png
 
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Sigmapolis

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Aug 10, 2011
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I know it isn't what the odds say here, but wouldn't it be a riot to win each of these games they are favored in by this metric. Starting conference play at 5-1 against that schedule would be outstanding!

Winning the two toss-up games (at Oklahoma and v. Houston) and otherwise defending the home court would give you no worse than 4/6. Stealing one at TCU would give you 5/6.

Actual win expectation to start the season is 3.72 wins and 2.28 losses, though.

Still, if we assume the remaining cupcakes are all wins and the Big 12 starts out 5/6...

1702312840904.png

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1702312885975.png

!!!
 

Letterkenny

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Oct 26, 2023
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I know it isn't what the odds say here, but wouldn't it be a riot to win each of these games they are favored in by this metric. Starting conference play at 5-1 against that schedule would be outstanding!
4-2 in the six game stretch would be awesome.
 

Jer

CF Founder, Creator
Feb 28, 2006
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Winning the two toss-up games (at Oklahoma and v. Houston) and otherwise defending the home court would give you no worse than 4/6. Stealing one at TCU would give you 5/6.

Actual win expectation to start the season is 3.72 wins and 2.28 losses, though.

Still, if we assume the remaining cupcakes are all wins and the Big 12 starts out 5/6...
1702313095669.png
Man, I don't know if we can accept that in TJ's 3rd year. Clearly not getting us over that hump we need.





/s
 

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