2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

cyclones500

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Follow-up admission, regarding my "big picture perspective" post ... I've had plenty of knee-jerk reaction to recent collapses/disappointments. (And I posted a few of those thoughts in various threads).
 

jctisu

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And still #16 NET .... the only thing that "truly matters" ... although it's good to be ranked consistently -- more attention, better perception, all those things.

ISU hasn't "looked like" a top 25 team too often for the past couple of weeks. But I try to remember, it's possible to cherry-pick a 5-game stretch by just about any ranked team throughout a season and find some clunkers.
And again if we got to play in every other conference, we would have a few actual bottom-dwellers to make our record look better. It's hard to do I get it, but you can't just look at the overall record. It's not a guarantee we would win these, but give me Louisville, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Minnesota, Georgetown, DePaul, Cal, Oregon State, etc. as our bottom-dwellers. OU is a team that you think is terrible judging by record, and even in my eyes, I don't think they are that good. But then you look at some of the games they have played and the absolute blasting of now #1 Alabama just a couple of weeks ago and you say, "Well ****."
 

Cyclonepride

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I feel like #19 is still a little generous?
19 seems about right, and if anything, may be penalizing us for losing to great teams while teams beating bad teams pass us up. That's why I don't really care about rankings week to week. The committee will sort out the complete resume.
 

JP4CY

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19 seems about right, and if anything, may be penalizing us for losing to great teams while teams beating bad teams pass us up. That's why I don't really care about rankings week to week. The committee will sort out the complete resume.
Yeah they'll sort it out. I guess the teams we've lost to are playing pretty decent now, Tech included.
 
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dahliaclone

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When NET ranked #46 North Carolina is still an 11 seed and 'in' the tourney on most brackets despite being 0-9 in Q1 games...you have to think while it would be awful to happen...if we lose out we'd still get in. We have four top ten wins and 7 Q1 wins and 0 bad losses.
 

VeloClone

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When NET ranked #46 North Carolina is still an 11 seed and 'in' the tourney on most brackets despite being 0-9 in Q1 games...you have to think while it would be awful to happen...if we lose out we'd still get in. We have four top ten wins and 7 Q1 wins and 0 bad losses.
Correction: 6 Q1 wins. Our OU win has now dropped to a Q2 win. They are now 76 in NET.
 

VeloClone

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Now I'm completely despondent! :D

Solution: Oklahoma needs to win a few games before that matchup to climb back to Q2!
Porter: "Message received."

Oklahoma now 65 - a huge jump after a huge win. OU road win is a Q1b again. Future home game is a Q2b - as of now.

Now for the bad news, OSU just dropped to 32 which puts our home loss to them as a Q2a.
 
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cyclones500

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All 10 Big 12 schools are in the Net top 65. Insanity. For reference, the worst teams from the P6 leagues are:
  • Oklahoma 65
  • Louisville 330
  • Minnesota 243
  • California 296
  • South Carolina 254
  • DePaul 173
That's quite a difference.

(One note - Big East should be Georgetown (228))

Even if we go only to the 10th team in each conference, to make everything “equal,” Big 12 still is better at the bottom end with one exception (Big Ten) and significantly higher than most of the others.
Big Ten: Penn State 61
Big 12: Oklahoma 65
SEC: Vanderbilt 89
ACC: Syracuse 95
Pac-12: Washington 122
Big East: DePaul 173
 
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Sigmapolis

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I know the squad hit a rough patch in the middle of the Big 12 season of late, though the win tonight helps against that, but despite some of the doom and gloom, Torvik still projects them as a #3...

1676524521256.png

These splits are going to be attractive to the committee...

1676524547532.png
 

FerShizzle

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If you'd like a completely silly stat----

The Big 12 has 10 TOTAL losses on the year outside of Q1.

The SEC has 54, The Big Ten has 41 and the Big East has 46. The ACC and PAC12 are both over 100.

Silly. Just flat silly.
To be fair, how many of those losses were conference games where bottom feeders played other bottom feeders?

The big 12 has just had so few chances to even have losses like these. Almost every game is a quad 1 game.