Sorry for this being late today. The email only came just now.
2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
Finally. I was waiting for an apology. ;-)
Crazy stat of the day... ISU is #9 in the country, on Torvik for the month of February...
#130 offense and #4 defense, which feels like a regression back to last years team..
#130 offense and #4 defense, which feels like a regression back to last years team..
#9 in the country but with a 2-2 record.
Current @mred generator, leaving everything on default, we get:
1. Baylor (13 - 5) Defeated Kansas based on road winning percentage against #5 teams [Kansas St and TCU] (2-0).
2. Kansas (13 - 5) Lost to Baylor based on road winning percentage against #5 teams [Kansas St and TCU] (1-1).
3. Texas (12 - 6)
4. Iowa St (10 - 8)
5. Kansas St (9 - 9) Defeated TCU based on winning percentage against #4 teams [Iowa St] (1-1).
6. TCU (9 - 9) Lost to Kansas St based on winning percentage against #4 teams [Iowa St] (0-2).
7. Okla St (8 - 10)
8. W Virginia (7 - 11)
9. Texas Tech (5 - 13)
10. Oklahoma (4 - 14)
I could live with it, at this point, and seems most realistic.
Mathematically possible to win title or share it, but I won't entertain that idea unless it builds back to a more viable scenario.
1. Baylor (13 - 5) Defeated Kansas based on road winning percentage against #5 teams [Kansas St and TCU] (2-0).
2. Kansas (13 - 5) Lost to Baylor based on road winning percentage against #5 teams [Kansas St and TCU] (1-1).
3. Texas (12 - 6)
4. Iowa St (10 - 8)
5. Kansas St (9 - 9) Defeated TCU based on winning percentage against #4 teams [Iowa St] (1-1).
6. TCU (9 - 9) Lost to Kansas St based on winning percentage against #4 teams [Iowa St] (0-2).
7. Okla St (8 - 10)
8. W Virginia (7 - 11)
9. Texas Tech (5 - 13)
10. Oklahoma (4 - 14)
I could live with it, at this point, and seems most realistic.
Mathematically possible to win title or share it, but I won't entertain that idea unless it builds back to a more viable scenario.
Looks about right. Hopefully tech can sneak to 6-12 and give Big12 a shot at another bid. If Baylor steals one at KU that could be the conference. 2-3 for us is probably right to finish the season but this Saturday is winnable. Feel like Texas is going to come out motivated against us and Baylor will be tough on the road so those are probable losses
We had a couple of tripups that we should have had, but we've been right there in every conference game. I think we will steal one we shouldn't down the stretch and be right in the mix of the regular season crown. Especially with Jaz rounding back into form, the emergence of Tre, and if Gabe and Grill get out of their slump.
Complete fantasy here, but giving back these three games...
at Oklahoma State (screwed up a huge lead, screwed up inbound play at the end)
at Texas Tech (screwed up huge lead, lost in overtime)
at West Virginia (if only Caleb would have made that run-out layup)
And no other changes gives you this...
End up in a threeway tie for the conference title (though #1 seed in the KC bracket).
Not going to happen, obviously, but I was curious.
at Oklahoma State (screwed up a huge lead, screwed up inbound play at the end)
at Texas Tech (screwed up huge lead, lost in overtime)
at West Virginia (if only Caleb would have made that run-out layup)
And no other changes gives you this...
End up in a threeway tie for the conference title (though #1 seed in the KC bracket).
Not going to happen, obviously, but I was curious.
If things do trend that way, ISU is looking at the Thursday, 11 AM CST timeslot for the 4-5 seed Big 12 Tourney game against K-State and would be on Baylor's side of the bracket.
Would love to see ISU play TCU again as we match up nicely with them, even when they are healthy. Got to get to the 3 line to do that though.
IDK. OSU could easily get to the 6 seed. Already beat them once, and they play saturday. TCU's future probably depends a LOT on when Miles comes back.
I don't want to see WV or OSU again. In the case of WV, EVER again, really.
Yeah, don't want to play OSU again. I'd honestly rather be on KU's side of the bracket. We match up nicely with them. KSU and BU will be a tall order for our Clones to get to Saturday for the Chip.
Don't want to see KSU either. Just want ISU really to get to Friday to have another full-party day downtown. (Thus, wishing TCU ends up at 5.) They'll have ZERO fans there too, and would be an obvious home game for us on Thursday.
If ISU keeps winning past that, it's just gravy.
After last night’s win, we seem pretty locked into that 4/5 game barring something crazy either way.
Texas has a difficult remaining schedule. If we won 3 of 5 we may have a shot at passing them. Especially if we win in Austin.
Texas has a difficult remaining schedule. If we won 3 of 5 we may have a shot at passing them. Especially if we win in Austin.
Comparing this against preseason poll. Top 3 was picked correctly, ISU & KSU overperformed, TTU & OU underperformed. Everyone else did about as well as expected.
Baylor -
Kansas -
Texas -
Iowa St +4
Kansas St +5
TCU -2
oSu -2
WVU +1
TTU -4
OU -3
I am scared of everyone in this conference. Bring on anyone see how we do.
I think worst for ISU is 8 seed, and would requiring losing remaining games ... assuming default for everyone else; even some alternate results wouldn't be enough to drop any further (it would involve some teams 7 or below eating each other).
You're basically correct if things go as expected, 4/5 line is most likely.
