2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

madguy30

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My neighbors are the problem, not me. They expect average temperatures and get all happy when we have unseasonably nice days. A real loser mentality.

Sounds like they need to get their **** together so you're inspired to not be content with your day to day.
 
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madguy30

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It's one of the most experienced teams in the conference but one of the least talented if you're going off raw star ratings, athleticism, size, etc., all those measurables Baylor, KU, and Texas always rule. There are exactly ZERO four- or five-star recruits on the roster. Watson has the highest recruiting rankings. The fact that the whole is so much greater than the sum of the parts is an impressive bit of coaching.

It's essentially a whole bunch of mid-majorish types that sell out every night.

Every other team seems to have at least one player that can take over on a whim or get a bucket to stop the bleeding if things aren't going well. In theory, ISU might have like 3 losses right now if they had someone like that.
 

Sigmapolis

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It's essentially a whole bunch of mid-majorish types that sell out every night.

Every other team seems to have at least one player that can take over on a whim or get a bucket to stop the bleeding if things aren't going well. In theory, ISU might have like 3 losses right now if they had someone like that.

If only...

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Cyclonepride

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It's essentially a whole bunch of mid-majorish types that sell out every night.

Every other team seems to have at least one player that can take over on a whim or get a bucket to stop the bleeding if things aren't going well. In theory, ISU might have like 3 losses right now if they had someone like that.
I'd say it's more like a bunch of power conference role players that sell out every night. Just don't have that guy who can get you 20 every night, so we have to rely on three or four options who might.
 

Sigmapolis

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I'd say it's more like a bunch of power conference role players that sell out every night. Just don't have that guy who can get you 20 every night, so we have to rely on three or four options who might.

P6 ROLE GUYS
---
Kalscheur (Minnesota)
Kunc (Washington State)

MID-MAJOR GUYS
---
Grill (UNLV, kind of a weird one with leaving and coming back)
Holmes (St. Bonaventure)
Osunniyi (St. Bonaventure)
Ward (VCU)
Williams (Temple, obviously not playing this season)

LOW-MAJOR GUYS
---
Jones (Denver)
T. King (Eastern Kentucky)

<4* FRESHMEN
---
E. King
Lipsey
Watson

This team only has two high-major transfers on it. Everybody else is from a mid-major (or worse). The three freshmen aren't exactly ones you projected as immediate contributors in the Big 12.

This team is crazily outgunned. It's doing well to do as well as it has.
 

Cyclonepride

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P6 ROLE GUYS
---
Kalscheur (Minnesota)
Kunc (Washington State)

MID-MAJOR GUYS
---
Grill (UNLV, kind of a weird one with leaving and coming back)
Holmes (St. Bonaventure)
Osunniyi (St. Bonaventure)
Ward (VCU)
Williams (Temple, obviously not playing this season)

LOW-MAJOR GUYS
---
Jones (Denver)
T. King (Eastern Kentucky)

<4* FRESHMEN
---
E. King
Lipsey
Watson

This team only has two high-major transfers on it. Everybody else is from a mid-major (or worse). The three freshmen aren't exactly ones you projected as immediate contributors in the Big 12.

This team is crazily outgunned. It's doing well to do as well as it has.
You seem to be using the term differently. To me, mid-major or low-major has a skill level connotation. I think all of these guys have the skill to play at this level, regardless of where they came from.
 
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madguy30

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P6 ROLE GUYS
---
Kalscheur (Minnesota)
Kunc (Washington State)

MID-MAJOR GUYS
---
Grill (UNLV, kind of a weird one with leaving and coming back)
Holmes (St. Bonaventure)
Osunniyi (St. Bonaventure)
Ward (VCU)
Williams (Temple, obviously not playing this season)

LOW-MAJOR GUYS
---
Jones (Denver)
T. King (Eastern Kentucky)

<4* FRESHMEN
---
E. King
Lipsey
Watson

This team only has two high-major transfers on it. Everybody else is from a mid-major (or worse). The three freshmen aren't exactly ones you projected as immediate contributors in the Big 12.

This team is crazily outgunned. It's doing well to do as well as it has.

It's kind of a 6 of one, 1/2 dozen deal where a big contributor at a mid-major can probably do just fine at a P6 and a role player on a P6 (bad teams mainly at MN and Washington State) could probably be significant at a mid-major.

Either way there's a lot to get this collection to be able to perform at this high of level. Hopefully they can get themselves to the finish line in good shape.
 

bawbie

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If only...
Yeah, but especially given the success of this team, I view that as a sort-of positive as well. You can see the vision that the coaching staff had in assembling this team. They missed out on a piece - through no fault of theirs - but they had the vision right. Its a very good sign going forward because AJ is about the only piece they "wanted" that they've missed on so far.
 

Gunnerclone

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You seem to be using the term differently. To me, mid-major or low-major has a skill level connotation. I think all of these guys have the skill to play at this level, regardless of where they came from.

Also, the A-10 is probably one of the highest “mid-major” conferences if you look back. There are levels to the levels. I think there is a decent difference between the American and A-10 vs the MVC for example. WCC is pretty good too but Gonzaga can really skew those numbers.
 

cyclones500

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Also, the A-10 is probably one of the highest “mid-major” conferences if you look back. There are levels to the levels. I think there is a decent difference between the American and A-10 vs the MVC for example. WCC is pretty good too but Gonzaga can really skew those numbers.

I agree in general with that pecking order, for most seasons in past decade or so and after the first major wave of conference realignment.

I think of it as P6, (P5+"new" Big East) ... AAC being just slightly below that, along with A-10/Mountain West ... those leagues are dependably multi-bid.

2022-23 is a bit of variance w/ American & Atlantic 10 -- might be only one or two at-large between the two this season.

WCC is close to that group, but feels more like Gonzaga dominance, with one or two other at-large (mostly SMC/BYU).
 

Sigmapolis

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Yeah, but especially given the success of this team, I view that as a sort-of positive as well. You can see the vision that the coaching staff had in assembling this team. They missed out on a piece - through no fault of theirs - but they had the vision right. Its a very good sign going forward because AJ is about the only piece they "wanted" that they've missed on so far.

This is a good point. TJ seems to have an excellent eye for roster construction, and there has never been a coach in Ames with more ability to go out and get the pieces that he needs.

This is still a good team, but give it two pieces and it's a top-five squad --

(1.) a backup PG
(2.) a SG who just gets buckets

...those were supposed to be Williams and Green. Give us a healthy Williams back (a veteran PG who could, say, steady the ship when Tamin lost his mind in Lubbock) or Green (who can break down a pressure defense on his own) and all the sudden you've won every game but Iowa and Missouri.

Alas. But they're close! And it's year two! And TJ has some awesome recruits coming in! Be happy!

The roster looks to need two things before next season: (1.) a starting big man and (2.) guard depth. I have no doubt TJ is going to find a way to go out and get them and then retool everything.
 

NWICY

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I think you're expectations are irrational. You're setting the maximum possible outcome as your expectation. That's not rational. It's rational to hope for the best possible outcome, but the expectation needs to be lower than that. My expectation coming into the season was to make the NCAA tournament. Then it shifted a little bit as we got better and is now set at finishing at .500 or better in the conference and a top 6 seed. My hope is we still win the conference and finish something like 12-6.

I think there is a big difference between what fans hope happens, and what fans should set as the minimum expectation.

I don't watch sports to make my life miserable. I watch sports to get enjoyment, so I usually take a "glass half full" approach.

Our expectations were similar I wanted the tourney and hope for the best, it's been fun flirting with the conference season championship though.
 

madguy30

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I think the adjustments from last night's results have already been made.

Yeah it says 'through 2/8' so not sure if it meant after the games were done or not.

So if they went from 12 to 13, that's quite a tailspin too!
 

qwerty

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Well, after yesterday we have fallen to #16 in NET, OSU up to #29. Hope we can hang onto a #4 seed.