2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

[ClonesFTW]

Top five rankings on KenPom in the last decade:

Jan 13th, 2014: 10
Today: 11
Jan 12th, 2019: 11
Jan 30th, 2016: 12
Feb 25th, 2015: 14

 

[CoachHines3]

Iowa State Men's Basketball Predicted Results Scores & RPI | WarrenNolan.com

2023 Iowa State Cyclones Men's Basketball Predicted Results for Every Upcoming Game and Predicted Final RPI, Strength of Schedule, and Quadrant Wins

www.warrennolan.com

 

[Halincandenza]

If they end up with a #2 seed, TJ should get coach of the year in college basketball.

 

[KennyPratt42]

In a good season like this the way I frame it is how many wins are we from being a lock for the tournament. I would say that number is probably 4 right now. Kind of like following a teams magic number in MLB.

 

[Sigmapolis]

We did it lads. We're all gonna get laid!

 

[Cyclonepride]

We did it lads. We're all gonna get laid!

View attachment 108436

Curious who they have as #3 in the Big 12?

 

[Sigmapolis]

Curious who they have as #3 in the Big 12?

Kansas
Texas
Baylor
Iowa State

#7 through #11 (minus Purdue at #8) right in a row

 

[isutrevman]

Kansas
Texas
Baylor
Iowa State

#7 through #11 (minus Purdue at #8) right in a row

View attachment 108437

Baylor's resume seems to be built on the back of close losses. How are they that high? They have two home losses in the Big 12 already.

 

[clone52]

Torvik has the Cyclones projected as a #2 seed right now --

View attachment 108417

The Big 12 has 5/16 of the #1 through #4 lines.

Remaining squads...

#5 TCU
#9 WVU
#11 Oklahoma (in Dayton)

OSU is the 12th out. Texas Tech is fading fast as the 31st out.

I know it doesn't matter, but I love this stuff. Look at how this works out.

Obviously Iowa State and Kansas are in Des Moines.

Regions.
1 seeds - Houston gets Kansas City, Purdue gets Louisville, Alabama gets New York and Kansas is in Vegas.
2 seeds - Tennessee gets Louisville, UConn gets New York, Iowa State gets Kansas City, UCLA gets Vegas
3 seeds - Texas gets Louisville (can't be in KC with ISU, can't be in Vegas with Kansas), Baylor gets New York (same reasons as Texas), Rutgers gets Kansas City, Gonzaga gets Las Vegas
4 seeds - Arizona gets Las Vegas, Xavier gets Louisville, Kansas State gets KC and Virginia gets New York.

Kansas City Region
1 - Houston
2 - Iowa State
3 - Rutgers
4 - Kansas State

 

[Sigmapolis]

I know it doesn't matter, but I love this stuff. Look at how this works out.

Obviously Iowa State and Kansas are in Des Moines.

Regions.
1 seeds - Houston gets Kansas City, Purdue gets Louisville, Alabama gets New York and Kansas is in Vegas.
2 seeds - Tennessee gets Louisville, UConn gets New York, Iowa State gets Kansas City, UCLA gets Vegas
3 seeds - Texas gets Louisville (can't be in KC with ISU, can't be in Vegas with Kansas), Baylor gets New York (same reasons as Texas), Rutgers gets Kansas City, Gonzaga gets Las Vegas
4 seeds - Arizona gets Las Vegas, Xavier gets Louisville, Kansas State gets KC and Virginia gets New York.

Kansas City Region
1 - Houston
2 - Iowa State
3 - Rutgers
4 - Kansas State

I wouldn't mind the #3 and #4 draw in that region.

Houston would be rough, though, stuck in a region with the first-overall seed.

 

[NoCreativity]

Need to take care of business Saturday in Stillwater then we have 2 huge games coming up next week.

I won't get too excited about seed projections until after Valentines day, still 66% of the Big 12 schedule left.

 

[clone52]

I wouldn't mind the #3 and #4 draw in that region.

Houston would be rough, though, stuck in a region with the first-overall seed.

I have not seen Houston play, but I don't think they are nearly as good as last year. Their tallest guys are 6'7" and 6'8". The have some smaller guards, so not huge mismatches. The block a lot of shots, get a lot of steals and don't turn it over.

They are very, very similar to us statistically as well.

There game results show some holes, too. Lots of blowouts, but not against great teams. They have a great wins against Virginia and St. Mary's and a close loss to Alabama. They are 3-1 in quad 1, but one of those might turn into quad 2 and they likely only have 3 more quad 1 opportunities. They also have some weird scores. They beat Kent State by 5 and only scored 49 points. Scored 53 against St. Mary's. Seems like once in awhile they just go away offensively.

 

[CloniesForLife]

I have not seen Houston play, but I don't think they are nearly as good as last year. Their tallest guys are 6'7" and 6'8". The have some smaller guards, so not huge mismatches. The block a lot of shots, get a lot of steals and don't turn it over.

They are very, very similar to us statistically as well.

There game results show some holes, too. Lots of blowouts, but not against great teams. They have a great wins against Virginia and St. Mary's and a close loss to Alabama. They are 3-1 in quad 1, but one of those might turn into quad 2 and they likely only have 3 more quad 1 opportunities. They also have some weird scores. They beat Kent State by 5 and only scored 49 points. Scored 53 against St. Mary's. Seems like once in awhile they just go away offensively.

There honestly isn't a team in deathly afraid of this year. Maybe Bama, UCONN (although they've been struggling after a hot start), and Arizona would be really bad matchups. But other than that I think we can go at it with anyone. Purdue doesn't scare me because I think our guards would make there's miserable and I wonder how Edey would handle our pressure

 

[bawbie]

There honestly isn't a team in deathly afraid of this year. Maybe Bama, UCONN (although they've been struggling after a hot start), and Arizona would be really bad matchups. But other than that I think we can go at it with anyone. Purdue doesn't scare me because I think our guards would make there's miserable and I wonder how Edey would handle our pressure

Purdue scares me because of how good (and protected) Edey has been.

Houston scares me because I think their athletic defense is unlike anything we've seen and they really are THAT good. Bama is very similar to Houston, but not quite as good (although they are holding opponents to a mind-boggling 45% FG% on shots at the rim)

If we make 3s (6 or more) we can beat anybody anywhere (with one exception) - but Houston and 'Bama are top 10 in opponents 3FG%

 

[Sigmapolis]

Purdue scares me because of how good (and protected) Edey has been.

Houston scares me because I think their athletic defense is unlike anything we've seen and they really are THAT good. Bama is very similar to Houston, but not quite as good (although they are holding opponents to a mind-boggling 45% FG% on shots at the rim)

If we make 3s (6 or more) we can beat anybody anywhere (with one exception) - but Houston and 'Bama are top 10 in opponents 3FG%

Tennessee and Houston have some SCARY defenses. How the **** are they doing that?

Tennessee is 5.2 points better than Iowa State per 100 in adjusted defense.

Add 5.2 points to Iowa State's 88.9 and you end up with 94.1 which puts you here --



There's equal distance from #1 on defense to #6 on defense than from #6 to #17.

Seeing Kent State up there (not that I know anything about them as a program) makes me fear Houston more. So Kent State challenged them... but Kent State is a legit defensive stopper.

 

[cyfan92]

4 of the next 6 are on the road. The 2 home games are against the two other teams tied for first..

ISU has and will only play Quad 1 games from 1/10-2/11... Only two remaining games on the schedule will be below quad 1... This league is just unbelievable...

 

[alexssdean12]

View attachment 108440

Tennessee and Houston have some SCARY defenses. How the **** are they doing that?

Tennessee is 5.2 points better than Iowa State per 100 in adjusted defense.

Add 5.2 points to Iowa State's 88.9 and you end up with 94.1 which puts you here --

View attachment 108442

There's equal distance from #1 on defense to #6 on defense than from #6 to #17.

Seeing Kent State up there (not that I know anything about them as a program) makes me fear Houston more. So Kent State challenged them... but Kent State is a legit defensive stopper.

I looked back as far as Kenpom would go and if Tennessee kept that defense up they would be the best of all time by a long shot. Historic numbers they are putting up. Now I doubt they do as SEC has some tough teams but they would be scary to face.

 

[dahliaclone]

Big 12 has 6 of the top 16 in the NET as of today...

Big Ten has...1.

 

[bawbie]

Tennessee and Houston have some SCARY defenses. How the **** are they doing that?

Houston does it with insanely good FG% (35%) at all three levels - plus #1 in limiting fast break points and Top 25 in forcing turnovers (link)

Tennessee also is #16 in forcing turnovers and is #1 in FG% (also 35%) - but what makes them #1 is that their opponents take a 1/3 of their shots from 3pt range (one of the highest numbers) and they only make 23% of them. (link)

Curiously - per haslametrics, the top 5 teams overall are all in the Top 11 in 3pt FG% defense (we're 20th by that metric holding opponents to 29%)

 

[HFCS]

Big 12 has 6 of the top 16 in the NET as of today...

Big Ten has...1.

K State is 13 and two of the teams in front of them have a 0% chance of getting seeded in front of them if committee seeded today. ISU might not be either right now, it'd be close.