2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

HFCS

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I think we’re peaking and then we’ll head down a little until mid-Feb when we start heading up again. In terms of metrics there just really aren’t that many needle movers anymore since we’re in conference.

This and will avoid the lowest lows of last year. Offensive floor is just way higher and comparable defense. I also think conference is down slightly although obviously still best top to bottom. There just aren't as many "oh that's an impossible matchup" teams for us even though everybody is at least pretty good.
 

CyPunch

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What flaw in net ranking has had St Mary's in the top 10 the entire year? They have a close loss to Houston and one good win. Three other losses that are just average losses. A few blowout wins but most wins somewhat close. Can't figure it out. Rest of the top 25 doesn't look that weird.

They haven't even played Gonzaga yet and will twice so I figure this will stick until the end unless they implode.

Elite efficiency metrics. They are 5th on Torrvik and 8th on KenPom. Mostly a product of being dominant in their wins and all 4 losses were by 5 points or less.

Their Strength of Record is 46th fwiw. That metric is usually closely correlated to seeding.

The answer is probably somewhere in the middle. They are projected as a 7th seed as of now. Would not want to get paired in their pod as a 2 seed.
 

Sigmapolis

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Torvik has the Cyclones projected as a #2 seed right now --

1674012902758.png

The Big 12 has 5/16 of the #1 through #4 lines.

Remaining squads...

#5 TCU
#9 WVU
#11 Oklahoma (in Dayton)

OSU is the 12th out. Texas Tech is fading fast as the 31st out.
 

madguy30

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3 more wins. :)

Honestly with the wins that ISU has gotten would seven total conferences wins (hopefully this doesn't happen obviously) be enough to squeeze into the tourney?
 
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LeaningCy

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3 more wins. :)

Honestly with the wins that ISU has gotten would seven total conferences wins (hopefully this doesn't happen obviously) be enough to squeeze into the tourney?

We'll never know cuz we're gonna go win the whole ******* thing
 
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Sigmapolis

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The craziest part of this is we don't have any four star players getting minutes. Previously our teams rates in this range had much higher end talent.

I know this isn't a 1:1 analog, but this quote comes to mind --

"In this room is every available player at every level of professional baseball, and somewhere in that group are 25 players that everyone else has thrown out. An island of misfit toys. In this room is a championship team that we can afford."

What is especially crazy is this team/roster is objectively missing a lot of pieces...

-- Kunc (a starter) hasn't played against the Big 12 due to injury.
-- Hunter bailed late last offseason, which hurt TJ's chances with the highest-priority big men (though landing Osunniyi late in the process was obviously one heck of a consolation prize).
-- Williams, likely the starter at PG once Hunter left, is out with injury. Forced to start a freshman coming off a major injury as a result with no backup PG and drafting Holmes into that role.
-- 99.9% the way to landing A.J. Green before one last, fateful phone call from the Milwaukee Bucks.

This is a top-ten team... imagine if it had a healthy Kunc, healthy Williams, and Green to round it out.

I don't know how TJ is doing this. The Hoiberg turnaround had some big-time transfers like Royce White and Will Clyburn to lead it. TJ went to the scrap heap and came back with a 5-1 Big 12 team.
 
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Cyclonepride

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I know this isn't a 1:1 analog, but this quote comes to mind --

"In this room is every available player at every level of professional baseball, and somewhere in that group are 25 players that everyone else has thrown out. An island of misfit toys. In this room is a championship team that we can afford."

What is especially crazy is this team/roster is objectively missing a lot of pieces...

-- Kunc (a starter) hasn't played against the Big 12.
-- Hunter bailed late last offseason, which hurt TJ's chances with the highest-priority big men (though landing Osunniyi late in the process was obviously one heck of a consolation prize).
-- Williams, likely the starter at PG once Hunter left, injured. Forced to start a freshman coming off a major injury as a result with no backup PG and drafting Holmes into that role.
-- 99.9% the way to landing A.J. Green before one last, fateful phone call from the Milwaukee Bucks.

This is a top ten team... imagine if it had a healthy Kunc, Williams, and Green to round it out.

I don't know how TJ is doing this. The Hoiberg turnaround had some big-time transfers like Royce White and Will Clyburn to lead it. TJ went to the scrap heap and came back with a 5-1 Big 12 team.
TJ has the ability to identify guys who want to play hard and fit his system.
 

tyler24

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I know this isn't a 1:1 analog, but this quote comes to mind --

"In this room is every available player at every level of professional baseball, and somewhere in that group are 25 players that everyone else has thrown out. An island of misfit toys. In this room is a championship team that we can afford."

What is especially crazy is this team/roster is objectively missing a lot of pieces...

-- Kunc (a starter) hasn't played against the Big 12.
-- Hunter bailed late last offseason, which hurt TJ's chances with the highest-priority big men (though landing Osunniyi late in the process was obviously one heck of a consolation prize).
-- Williams, likely the starter at PG once Hunter left, with a nasty injury. Forced to start a freshman coming off a major injury as a result with no backup PG and drafting Holmes into that role.
-- 99.9% the way to landing A.J. Green before one last, fateful phone call from the Milwaukee Bucks.

This is a top ten team... imagine if it had a healthy Kunc, healthy Williams, and Green to round it out.

I don't know how TJ is doing this. The Hoiberg turnaround had some big-time transfers like Royce White and Will Clyburn to lead it. TJ went to the scrap heap and came back with a 5-1 Big 12 team.
Work ethic and habits. That's what has done it.
 

clone52

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Torvik has the Cyclones projected as a #2 seed right now --

View attachment 108417

The Big 12 has 5/16 of the #1 through #4 lines.

Remaining squads...

#5 TCU
#9 WVU
#11 Oklahoma (in Dayton)

OSU is the 12th out. Texas Tech is fading fast as the 31st out.
That is a Cyclone wet dream. Des Moines to Kansas City.
 

twincyties

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3 more wins. :)

Honestly with the wins that ISU has gotten would seven total conferences wins (hopefully this doesn't happen obviously) be enough to squeeze into the tourney?
I think that would be a stretch. The committee says they look at the whole season, but I suspect there is some decency bias. Meaning teams that start slow but finish strong seem more appealing than those that start really strong and then fall off.

Us being borderline top ten then finishing 2-10 would surely be a storyline and not a good one.
 

LeaningCy

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Screenshot_20230118-084310.png
giphy.webp
 

8bitnes

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3 more wins. :)

Honestly with the wins that ISU has gotten would seven total conferences wins (hopefully this doesn't happen obviously) be enough to squeeze into the tourney?
Spreading out 7 wins and going 7-11, perhaps they'd get thru. However, ending up at 7 wins now would mean closing the season 2-10 and that would be a problem.
 

CRCySpy

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The craziest part of this is we don't have any four star players getting minutes. Previously our teams rates in this range had much higher end talent.
I thought I saw a stat last week that ISU is the sixth oldest team in college basketball. With all the young talent leaving for the NBA experienced players make a huge difference. Young 4 and 5 star players are very talented, but they are young and inconsistent at times. There is something to be said for the 4 and 5 year players that have played 100+ college basketball games. They have experienced more adversity and road games than kids coming from high school.
 

madguy30

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Spreading out 7 wins and going 7-11, perhaps they'd get thru. However, ending up at 7 wins now would mean closing the season 2-10 and that would be a problem.

Yeah I guess it would matter where the wins were. And again obviously let's just not find out.